The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-18	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	18	2,151	121	23	5.63%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,313	149	27	11.35%
		Raleigh	5	7	792	115	15	14.52%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		17	36	4,256	385	65	9.05%
T-2	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	469	4	55.77%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	404	1	98.54%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	1,019	5	72.68%
T-3	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	668	22	57.29%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	256	1	80.50%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	924	23	62.26%
T-4	Batman	Jacksonville	7	126	20,501	1,243	58	6.06%
		Phoenix	7	115	18,183	2,020	123	11.11%
		Raleigh	28	101	11,404	1,556	75	13.64%
	Batman Total		42	342	50,088	4,819	256	9.62%

 

Batman T-4 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .211x (10.53m)

Black Widow - 1.429x (18.77m)

Eternals - 1.984x (18.53m)

 

Fell back against BW and Eternals, increasing only 5.61% where they increased by 6.14% and 7.39% respectively.

 

T-4 ATP comparison

Batman - 13.99

Spider-Man - 13.20

Black Widow - 13.27

Eternals - 14.32

 

From what I can tell, Spider-Man's low show count early on drove up the sales in the matinee and standard shows.  With the full slate of Batman shows up on the first day, those same shows won't be targeted until closer to release when the other shows have started filling up.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	472	3	56.12%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	404	0	98.54%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	1,022	3	72.90%
T-17	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	18	2,151	135	14	6.28%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,313	171	22	13.02%
		Raleigh	5	7	792	126	11	15.91%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		17	36	4,256	432	47	10.15%
T-2	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	705	37	60.46%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	262	6	82.39%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	967	43	65.16%
T-3	Batman	Jacksonville	7	126	20,501	1,384	141	6.75%
		Phoenix	7	115	18,183	2,225	205	12.24%
		Raleigh	28	101	11,404	1,722	166	15.10%
	Batman Total		42	342	50,088	5,331	512	10.64%

 

Batman T-3 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .223x (11.13m)

Black Widow - 1.489x (19.65m)

Eternals - 2.01x (19.05m)

 

Increased against all three comps today.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

Just wanted to say that I am sorry for my remark. It was a tongue in cheek remark directed solely at The Batman number going down and not meant to cause any offense or ill feelings  nor did I expect anyone to follow up with serious comments in agreement, but I understand that it did and for that I am sorry. Maybe I am alone but I did not realize anyone here had anything to do with those projections. Either way, I am sure I speak for many when I say that this site, as a hub for info, analysis, and discussion about this very specific subject, is greatly appreciated along with the people whose time, effort & funds keep it running.

I appreciate that, @excel1.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 2/26/2022 at 4:04 AM, Derby Legion said:

Yeah, BOP is right to note that they beat all other public forecasts (though I think BOR is also pretty decent, they don't do long range and get the wknd forecasts up late Th). And that they're working with an earlier deadline than e.g. derby players, which is a natural handicap. I think for holdovers, small openers, and medium openers they operate at near practical maximum efficiency.   

 

For big openers, this thread and our extrapolations from it have been doing even better, comparing same point in time to same point in time. I'm not too sympathetic to the "2021 is a mulligan" argument since:

1)To the extent that 2021 was extra difficult, we are comparing predictions for 2021 movies to other predictions for 2021 movies, so even playing field.

2) 2021 mostly followed normal trends anyway for big movies, which mostly didn't release until more normalcy in 2H 2021. Pandemic-making-everything-sui-generis-and-incomparable ended up a little overblown considering how good our results were despite that.   

 

It will be interesting to see if we continue to outperform in 2022 -- if so (and I expect so, full disclosure), I think putting a little weight here is a seriously reasonable suggestion 😛

 

@Shawn, so I'm not talking behind your back

 

 

Well, see, I've asked this before: where are the measurements of this thread's accuracy from last year and this year? Not from the perspective of a comparison to any other websites, but simply from a pure self-assessment of predictions. If you're going to keep suggesting there's a significant difference, the burden of proof is on you, my friend.

 

On 2/26/2022 at 2:12 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Are we still owned by Box Office Pro? 

On a joking/serious note, since The Tracking team do things almost for everything and let's pat ourselves a little, we are closest to actuals like almost always, may be BO Pro incorporate our services in main tracking.

 

Just saying. Don't kill me.

Same thing: burden of proof.  

 

I'm not interested in dragging out some big debate because I personally think this is comparing apples to oranges and not really worth your time or mine. 

 

It seems like this has come up because of The Batman, which is just one example and no one knows how it'll pan out yet. No one has even made a final prediction, it's just all of us reassessing different sets of data and shifting projections based on that + expected changes.

 

If you guys have specific projections from this thread you're referring to from last year or this year, I'm all ears and eyes. If you don't have them, then please continue to feel proud of the great work being done in here because you've absolutely earned that.

 

But... just a humble suggestion... maybe don't assume so much, because our own accuracy has a pretty strong track record across a very large sample size. We've been close-to-very-close on a number of major releases since theaters re-opened last year and for the past decade-plus of tracking roughly 150 movies during any given week. And yes, we occasionally missed here and there, but so has this thread -- even recently.

 

That's the nature of tracking and projecting -- people tend to remember the misses more and forget about the ones that do really well, unless its their own numbers. We all want our personal victories to stand out. It is possible for both to be useful and accurate in their own ways, though.

 

Regarding the idea of integration... that's better reserved for a private discussion, so feel free to DM me.

[Derpity]

Micro-tracking: just had 2 people say to me they hadn't been planning to rush to see Batman, saw the reviews, and are now planning to see it this weekend.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

@Shawn 

 

 

Lol on a serious note, maybe a friendly competition? BOP vs The Tracking Thread 😎

 

Perhaps something where we both lock in on Wednesday night what we thinking they weekend numbers will be? Top 5 movies? Maybe the 9 weekends in April and May? 
 

 

[Porthos]

 

 

3 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

@Shawn 

 

 

Lol on a serious note, maybe a friendly competition? BOP vs The Tracking Thread 😎

 

Perhaps something where we both lock in on Wednesday night what we thinking they weekend numbers will be? Top 5 movies? Maybe the 9 weekends in April and May? 
 

 

 

Leave me out of all of this, for the record.

 

(if anyone wants to use my data to help this thread, fine, but Imma gonna be a Switzerland and be neutral in all of this)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Leave me out of all of this, for the record.

 

(if anyone wants to use my data to help this thread, fine, but Imma gonna be a Switzerland and be neutral in all of this)

As you wish, sweet Porthos. I figured it would mostly involve the best Derby people and Charlie (unless someone else was interested as well.)

[charlie Jatinder]

Its round midnight here, I am not gonna read that long text for now, but just to clarify

 

@Shawn I didn't mean to say that "we are closest" thing in competition with BO Pro. That was just humorous boasting, nothing serious. There's no competition.

 

That said more when I wake up.

[Madhuvan]

Batman is trending #1

Very few film get this kind of boost with reviews.

My predictions as of now looking at this thread is $25m previews and $160m weekend. Decent multiplier of 6.4x 

 

I think this is very much doable looking at the trends. Will revise on Wednesday again if any anamoly but I am confident there won't be.

[EmpireCity]

4 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

The Lost City showing a showtime for the 22nd 

 

There are going to be special Girl's Night and Date Night shows.  

[EmpireCity]

Father Stu goes on sale this week.  Lol.  

 

Also, new Bullet Train trailer on Wednesday.  

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Father Stu goes on sale this week.  Lol.  

 

Also, new Bullet Train trailer on Wednesday.  

Out of curiosity what about the hedgehog or the Wizarding worlds tickets?

[BruiseCruise]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Father Stu goes on sale this week.  Lol.  

 

Also, new Bullet Train trailer on Wednesday.  

any idea when black adam trailer will come out?

[EmpireCity]

Guys, when I post something it doesn't mean that I have 17 other pieces of info I am holding on to.  If I let you know Father Stu is going on sale unprompted, I will certainly post when WB puts Dumbledore on sale.  

[YM!]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

Guys, when I post something it doesn't mean that I have 17 other pieces of info I am holding on to.  If I let you know Father Stu is going on sale unprompted, I will certainly post when WB puts Dumbledore on sale.  

Sorry lol.

[el sid]

I was too lazy to also count the Thursday numbers () and I think the Friday presales are more significant anyway.
The Batman, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, March 4:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 745 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.191 (19 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 246 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 122 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 250 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 875 (14 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.465 (24 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.894.

Up 29.5% since last Thursday.
Comps: BoP's (9M true Friday) final presales number for Friday was 1.664 = x2.94 with 3 days left for Batman to increase the margin = 26.45M and let's say the Batman sales jump ca. 50% till Thurday that would be around 40M true Friday for Batman.
Eternals (21.2M) had on Tuesday of its release week 3.138 sold tickets = x1.56 with 1 day left for Batman = 33.1M plus ca. 10-20% = ca. 38M.

SC (20.8M) had also on Tuesday of its release week 2.672 sold tickets = x1.83 with 1 day left for Batman = 37.9M plus again ca. 10-20% = 43.6M.
And TSS (8.0M) had on the same day, the Monday of its release week, 940 sold tickets = x5.21 = 41.7M (and no HBO Max this time).
So all comps point to around 40M on true Friday. Quite nice and due to the early WOM and reviews it could even increase a bit over the next days I guess.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 hours ago, Cap said:

Nope. 
 

NOPE.

 

We are not remotely doing this.

 

1. It is not insane that comic books are the biggest source of theatrical entertainment now. Adapted materials for movies have existed since the dawn of movies. If this was the 1920s, you’d probably be saying I can’t believe that Coward plays Are the only source of theatrical entertainment. Remember that 30 year period Where everything was a Western? Hollywood finally has the technology to adopt comic books, so that’s where were at. In the stories and adaptations just keep coming because there are literally thousands of stories and characters between DC, Marvel, and the indie comics that they can mine for source material. Next point.

 

2. Maybe if my life centers around these movies, and I would argue that my life probably does center around these movies, I’m in no rush to watch a three hour Batman movie on a Thursday night. And as exciting and as beautiful as the footage looks, it’s still a Batman movie. He dresses up in a bad suit, he goes and he fights crime, and his parents are still going to be dead. This has been the same for 40 years. This is not Batman fatigue. This is Batman pigeonholing itself. The best example that I can think of, and I’m sorry for pulling Star Wars into this, is that get the eff off Tatooine. There are other planets. There are other stories. If they came out of the gate and said this Batman has Dick Grayson as Robin, that be a different story. If they came out of the gate and said we’re going to make Bruce Wayne old, and we’re going to do Terry McGinnis, that would be a different story. 

 

3. This literally has nothing to do with Disney. This has nothing to do with the MCU. There have been financially successful Warner Bros./DC films during the MCU raise. They coexist. And they will continue to coexist. The only reason they would not coexist, is if one team imploded. And there’s no indication that that’s going to happen anytime soon.

 

So, please do not come in here with your concerned trolling. And if you want to pull that, you can go over to the Batman thread. This thread is for numbers and data.

How if this trolling? Don't get offended at me. Im sorry Batman does not look as good to you as Eternals or whatever. All I was saying is that one of the biggest comic characters (DC's biggest) not having a crazy high opening is very surprising to me

Edited February 28, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Fox20]

I remember when Spider-man Homecoming pulled a 180M debut... Oh wait it did not.

 

What a dumb complain when it's most likely going to open over 140M at least, Batman is going to open higher than most marvel movies, not everything has been Cap Marvel and Black Panther on the Marvel side.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Its round midnight here, I am not gonna read that long text for now, but just to clarify

 

@Shawn I didn't mean to say that "we are closest" thing in competition with BO Pro. That was just humorous boasting, nothing serious. There's no competition.

 

That said more when I wake up.

It's all good, you and I have spoken outside here before and we tend to share the same mentality on things usually. I kinda just included your quote since it was on topic with Legion's and to reply about the integration thing.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Fox20 said:

I remember when Spider-man Homecoming pulled a 180M debut... Oh wait it did not.

 

What a dumb complain when it's most likely going to open over 140M at least, Batman is going to open higher than most marvel movies, not everything has been Cap Marvel and Black Panther on the Marvel side.

If it opens 140 sure, but most in the tracking thread were saying 130 or under which is what I was speaking about and the notion that comic fans wouldn't see a comic movie on Thursday.

 

And 117 for Homecoming was higher than TASM2 and TASM1. This will open under BVS, TDKR, TDK. 2.86 multiplier is also very solid for what Homecoming opened to