The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Previews actuals $18M for GoTG3

 

 

In my $18M-19M range! Puerto rico I love you 

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

I find it fascinating how much attention the Barbie/Oppenheimer showdown is getting, when pretty much every weekend in June is a showdown between two or more films that have some reasonable ambitions.

 

Last summer, there was only one weekend where two films debuted to $20M or more, and only 3 where two had $10M or more.

 

The pairings in June are Spiderverse and Boogeyman, Rise of the Beasts and Strays, Flash and Elemental, No Hard Feelings and Asteroid City, and Indiana Jones and Ruby Gillman.

 

I think there's a good chance that each of those hit $10M in their debut/wide expansion, and only Asteroid City and Strays unlikely to hit $20M. But, we've not had anything like this post pandemic, and there's likely to be a lot of casualties. And it'll be a question of whether bigger films suffer a bit, or the counter programming crashes and burns.

 

 

Unless I’m forgetting one, that 6/24/22 weekend (Elvis & Black Phone) is the only the second time post-pandemic that 2 movies opened to $20M+, the other being Quiet Place 2 & Cruella on Memorial Day 2021.  I think Barbie vs Opp gets oversized attention because it’s the first time we’ve had a potential dual $30M+ ($40M+ ??) duel.
 

Of those June multiple release weekends, there’s a clear winner for each - less of a showdown - and not much $30M potential for the lesser ones IMO. And overall I do think the second and third tier (and worse reviewed) films take the competition hit, more of haves and have nots, rather than pulling the ceiling down on the ones with more potential. Like I have no idea why Strays is opening in June and not July 

 

 

[vafrow]

48 minutes ago, M37 said:

Unless I’m forgetting one, that 6/24/22 weekend (Elvis & Black Phone) is the only the second time post-pandemic that 2 movies opened to $20M+, the other being Quiet Place 2 & Cruella on Memorial Day 2021.  I think Barbie vs Opp gets oversized attention because it’s the first time we’ve had a potential dual $30M+ ($40M+ ??) duel.
 

Of those June multiple release weekends, there’s a clear winner for each - less of a showdown - and not much $30M potential for the lesser ones IMO. And overall I do think the second and third tier (and worse reviewed) films take the competition hit, more of haves and have nots, rather than pulling the ceiling down on the ones with more potential. Like I have no idea why Strays is opening in June and not July 

 

 

June definitely has a primary and secondary each weekend. Though, Elemental will likely be the strongest second this year.

 

But even if things struggle, it's going to have such a huge impact on screen allocations and legginess of runs.

 

I've seen people reference TLM mimicking Aladdin's legs. But, I don't know how it survives June with a meaningful screen count.

 

Or something like Boogeyman. Even as horror, it's original IP, so, it has to make it's money by word of mouth, but, it's just not going to get the same window as other similar films.

 

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

June definitely has a primary and secondary each weekend. Though, Elemental will likely be the strongest second this year.

 

But even if things struggle, it's going to have such a huge impact on screen allocations and legginess of runs.

 

I've seen people reference TLM mimicking Aladdin's legs. But, I don't know how it survives June with a meaningful screen count.

 

Or something like Boogeyman. Even as horror, it's original IP, so, it has to make it's money by word of mouth, but, it's just not going to get the same window as other similar films.

 

Disney's scheduling this summer is its own worst enemy. They have Little Mermaid, Boogeyman, Elemental, and Indy 5 within a six-week stretch, plus a vested interest in Spider-Verse, and then Haunted Mansion is their only major release between that clump and the Fall season. They could've easily pushed Boogeyman to August so it has a lot more room to maneuver.

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, cookie said:

Disney's scheduling this summer is its own worst enemy. They have Little Mermaid, Boogeyman, Elemental, and Indy 5 within a six-week stretch, plus a vested interest in Spider-Verse, and then Haunted Mansion is their only major release between that clump and the Fall season. They could've easily pushed Boogeyman to August so it has a lot more room to maneuver.

Disney scheduling in general sucks. You don’t need to have a stacked calendar like that, it’s going to be sink or swim for the non-mega tentpoles like Indy or Mermaid.

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, cookie said:

How's Fast X doing compared to 9? Better? Worse? I put a similar total on my summer wager.

 

It's actually doing reasonably well, IMO.  The super long pre-sale window still makes it difficult to truly judge, but I'm decently impressed with how it's been doing the past week.

 

Ever since this started pre-sales I've been on the "at least slightly more than F9" when it came to Thursday previews and the past week of sales has really solidified that for me.

 

Still have reactions and reviews as hurdles to clear, but if they're at least at F9 level of acceptability, should be at least in the ball park, plus or minus.  

 

====

 

One thing to keep in mind is that this is gonna have 2pm previews DOM while F9 had 7pm.   That's gonna take a tremendous hatchet to the weekend multi so for Fast X to do better than F9 on the OW it'll need a better preview number.  How much better, I'll leave to others to figure out.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/5/2023 at 1:34 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-13

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1603	28103	5.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 1:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60

Still not really doing anything big. Maybe next week 

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
*141	*1464	*28103	5.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60
 

A small TC pulled all their showings for Fast X for now. Its going to throw off numbers. 36 seats sold today, not including the pulled showings 

 

COMPS

T-12

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.270x) ~$4.7M THUR

[motionpic05]

How's Book Club 2 looking?

Early Access screening seem to be quite empty near me..

[keysersoze123]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:51 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 previews - 29192/457883 533412.06 2195 shows

Fast X MTC1

Previews - 31914/463960 582420.18 2232 shows

Friday - 21842/554711 406779.78 2626 shows

 

Pace is still not great. I think it will end up with higher previews than last movie but lower OW. 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1

Previews - 31914/463960 582420.18 2232 shows

Friday - 21842/554711 406779.78 2626 shows

 

Pace is still not great. I think it will end up with higher previews than last movie but lower OW. 

I wonder how they´ll keep making these movies, X allegedly costs 340M and i´ve having a hard time seeing it surpassing F9

[Tinalera]

Will probably start tracking Fast X next week-from feedback and my figuring, probably comps to GOTG and Antman by the sounds of it. Thank you @charlie Jatinder for giving the those OD numbers so I can work with them a bit. 

[SpiderByte]

4 hours ago, cookie said:

plus a vested interest in Spider-Verse

...do they? They own the merch rights but box office wise they don't really gain anything from whatever Spider Verse does

[grim22]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 2pm previews DOM 

At what time does it stop being previews and just becomes opening day instead.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

48 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I wonder how they´ll keep making these movies, X allegedly costs 340M and i´ve having a hard time seeing it surpassing F9

Fast X Part 2 is supposed to be the final main installment and I they’ve talked up spin-off movies to continue the series after.

[Legion Again]

42 minutes ago, grim22 said:

At what time does it stop being previews and just becomes opening day instead.

Midnight Previews = 7PM Wed+all day Th 😌

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Midnight Previews = 7PM Wed+all day Th 😌

Eh. Everything before FRI is previews 

[GOGODanca]

Within 5 years we will have shows from 2 PM onwards each day from Monday through Thursday and Friday official opening day

[rehpyc]

10 hours ago, ZackM said:

Sounds like you've got everything you need.

 

I think in terms of what data to collect:

 

# of theaters

# of shows

tickets sold

total tickets

and if you can, average ticket price.

Appreciate the insight! How many theatres is a good sample size, and should they be from different chains?

[vafrow]

I'm old enough to remember when television networks used to put their best programs on Thursday nights, because it was the most coveted advertising slot, as studios used to advertise the big upcoming films that weekend.

 

Now, people are seeing those releases on Thursday, and you'd be late to the game if people still actually watched live TV.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

At what time does it stop being previews and just becomes opening day instead.

I admit I have asked myself this question alot too.