The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[jedijake]

24 minutes ago, joselowe said:

I know we still have a little over two weeks but based on the pre-sales now, does anyone have OW predictions for TLM?

I may be presumptuous, but if it is going to pull in $12 million in previews, a $120 million 3-day OW is not out of the question.

 

BatB-like multi would give it $128 million

Aladdin-like multi would give it $156 million (not happening of course)

LK-like multi gives it $100 million

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Just going to mildly suggest again that Scream VI be added to comp list for Mermaid. Yeah, there’s going be market share/PSM differences, but really feeling like that may wind up being the best comp of the possible options

 

Sacto:

 

TLM = 2.5406x Scream VI at T-16 [14.48m] [39 tickets sold for Scream VI]

[charlie Jatinder]

So @M37 what you think now 😉

[Flamengo81]

Any news on when Flash tickets will go on sale?

[Flopped]

This may not be the right thread but any idea what screencounts will look like this weekend? 

[Porthos]

One cautionary note about TLM is that it's having an extremely early social media embargo lift which is gonna boost ticket sales right now in the pre-sale run compared to some other films and it won't be seeing a boost from social media reacts when those films have their social media lifts.

 

It'll all smooth itself out over time but does mean one has to keep it in mind when observing day to day patterns.

 

---

 

As for predicts?  All I feel safe in saying is that TLM will probably hit double digit previews, starting with a "1".  Everything else after that I really couldn't say.  Especially since films that look to be skewed toward women tend, and I do mean tend, to be a bit more frontloaded than other entrants in their genres.

 

This is one of the reasons why Scream VI, though all in all not a great comp due to ATP differences, does indeed have some value and @M37 is right to ask for it (just slipped my mind to include it last night with everything else going on).

[jedijake]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

One cautionary note about TLM is that it's having an extremely early social media embargo lift which is gonna boost ticket sales right now in the pre-sale run compared to some other films and it won't be seeing a boost from social media reacts when those films have their social media lifts.

 

It'll all smooth itself out over time but does mean one has to keep it in mind when observing day to day patterns.

 

---

 

As for predicts?  All I feel safe in saying is that TLM will probably hit double digit previews, starting with a "1".  Everything else after that I really couldn't say.  Especially since films that look to be skewed toward women tend, and I do mean tend, to be a bit more frontloaded than other entrants in their genres.

 

This is one of the reasons why Scream VI, though all in all not a great comp due to ATP differences, does indeed have some value and @M37 is right to ask for it (just slipped my mind to include it last night with everything else going on).

But isn't a movie like TLM also custom made for walk ups or ticket sales close to OW?

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Hypnotic T-2: 22.7% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

Kandahar T-16: 20.96%, 5.33

The Little Mermaid T-16: 62.33%, 6.03

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse T-23: 47.77%, 6.12

Haunted Mansion T-79: 30.58%, 5.81

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-86: 32.24%, 5.62

 

Book Club: The Next Chapter T-4: 32.46% Awareness, 4.76 Interest

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Sequel Awareness: 67% chance of 10M

Sequel Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Elemental T-37: 35.34% Awareness, 5.58 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 42% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

T-30 Interest: 81% chance of 10M, 65% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 38% chance of 40M

Animation/Family Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

The Flash T-37: 52.81% Awareness, 6.01 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 91% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 70M, 45% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 92% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 58% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[grim22]

2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Yeah, it definitely seems to be an afterthought compared to everything else this summer. I think the trailers have been godawful and any confidence in the project due to lack of Bay and the Bumblebee movie's reception seems to have gone down the drain. 

 

The issue with the movie is that none of the promotions makes it look at different than the Bay movies. And people tapped out of those a while ago, nostalgia for those movies should be arriving in about 5 years from now.

[M37]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So @M37 what you think now 😉

I think when you adjust the PSM for market/ATP variance (Sacto under indexes on horror and over indexes on family) you get ~$11-$12M, which was the midpoint of the Thursday on the Forecast Matrix 😉

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

But isn't a movie like TLM also custom made for walk ups or ticket sales close to OW?

 

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Especially since films that look to be skewed toward women tend, and I do mean tend, to be a bit more frontloaded than other entrants in their genres.

 

This is one of the reasons why Scream VI, though all in all not a great comp due to ATP differences, does indeed have some value and @M37 is right to ask for it (just slipped my mind to include it last night with everything else going on).

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

You Hurt My Feelings tix on sale tomorrow.

 

Still haven’t heard about Flash, should know soon though.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/9/2023 at 1:03 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-23 *First 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
115	2277	24639	9.2%

*Numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.47
 

 

COMPS

T-23

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.495x) ~$9M THUR

 

Definitely selling like an MCU film here 

Currently thinking $90M OW but that number could go wayyy up if early reviews are glowing 

 

P.S. It's selling better than Mario's first 24 hours 

(However, Mario was a full day of box office and the final days of Mario was absolutely bonkers so I won't use it as a comp) 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2421	25449	9.5%

*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

144

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

 

COMPS

T-22

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.519x) ~$9.4M THUR

[Mulder]

Transformers feels doomed honestly. Ticket sales at my local are abysmal. 

[el sid]

I planned to also count the Thursday but other things took too long so today only the Friday of Fast X (and tomorrow the Thursday).

Fast X counted today for Friday, May 19 - 9 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 226 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 60 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 44 (only 1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 29 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 198 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 359 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 925.
Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = 5 days left for Fast X): GotG3 (118.4M OW) had 2.151 sold tickets,
Angel Has Fallen (21.4M) had 136 sold tickets,
BT (30M) had 655 sold tickets,
TG:M (126.7M) had 2.743 sold tickets,
Hobbs & Shaw (60M) had 1.234 sold tickets
and F9 (70M) had 1.656 sold tickets.
Uncharted (44M) had with 10 days left 408 sold tickets.

I'm pretty sure that Fast X will be on par with F9 next Monday.

Edited May 10, 2023 by el sid

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/9/2023 at 2:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1602	28556	5.6%

*Numbers taken as of 2:30pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62
 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.258x) ~$4.6M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1703	28556	5.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

101

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62

 

 

COMPS

T-8

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.267x) ~$4.8M THUR

[ChipDerby]

My GUESS for Flash tickets is Monday or Tuesday of next week. In their dream world, we get at least one Game 7 scheduled for Sunday, which gives you the perfect opportunity to push "Tickets go on Sale" ads.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

On 5/4/2023 at 4:45 PM, datpepper said:

Strays tix on sale May 17.

Given that the movie was delayed, is that date still up?

[misterpepp]

4 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Given that the movie was delayed, is that date still up?

 

Nope, the ticket date and showtimes were pulled. Won't be going on sale on the 17th anymore, unfortunately.

[Starphanluke]

Yeah Transformers sales at my local aren't looking horrible... but they're also not good. 

 

I will officially take my "People are Underestimating Transformers" L and wear it with pride.