The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	30517	32900	2383	7.24%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	7
Total Net Seats Added Today	31
Total Seats Sold Today	327

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	106.86		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	63.77%		6.63m
Bats	30.10		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	20.27%		6.50m
TG:M	27.36		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	20.77%		5.41m
JWD	34.74		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	21.73%		6.25m
BA	92.76		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	53.03%		7.05m
Wick 4	74.49		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	43.74%		6.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	92.56		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4407	54.07%		7.54m
Fast X (adj)			302	2277		0/217	27260/29537	7.71%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       502/12719  [3.95% sold]
Matinee:    127/4494  [2.83% | 5.33% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

 

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	243	30319	33247	2928	8.81%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	8
Total Net Seats Added Today	347
Total Seats Sold Today	545

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	105.10		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	78.35%		6.52m
Bats	30.70		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	24.90%		6.63m
TG:M	30.32		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	25.52%		5.99m
JWD	34.78		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	26.70%		6.26m
BA	92.83		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	65.15%		7.06m
Wick 4	74.79		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	53.74%		6.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	96.03		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4407	66.44%		7.82m
Fast X (adj)			507	2784		0/225	27100/29884	9.32%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     677/12651  [5.35% sold]
Matinee:    179/4413  [4.06% | 6.11% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Better than yesterday, at least, but man... I dunno.  F9 exploded on the last day, and since it was sampled later in the night (due to it being 7pm previews) it might have a larger final day to comp against.  Still, maybe extra showtimes make up for it?  Heck if I know.

 

6.5m does seem to be the floor at the very least.  Gun to my head, I do think it clears 7m, but... Like I said, I dunno.  Reviews look to be "good enough" at any rate.

 

Just have to see how the walkups are.

[M37]

The lack of convergence vs comps for Fast X at T-1 is a bit head scratching. Good news is that reviews weren’t terrible, pace is ahead of JWD, and now probably clears 130K for MTC1 

 

Still at basically $7-$8M, but which way it leans in that range - towards the market comps with lower value or MTCs & F9 comps which suggest higher - I’m not really sure

[filmlover]

Variety is projecting $60M for the weekend.

 

'Fast X' Box Office Targets $60 Million Domestic, $280 Million Global - Variety

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 65866/1144891 1153130.24 6430 shows

 

Friday growth was much better. It sold more than 13.5K tickets yesterday. Definitely opening above last one. 

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 81851/1169697 1414301.81 6570 shows +15985

 

Good day. 

[keysersoze123]

Fast X MTC2 previews - 60112/763113 889056.99 5525 shows

 

Its not exactly T-1 as it started late afternoon yesterday. I think with walkups it will catch up F9 here as well. 

[AJG]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Variety is projecting $60M for the weekend.

 

'Fast X' Box Office Targets $60 Million Domestic, $280 Million Global - Variety

 

Quote

“Fast X” needs to continue that trend because the film is the most expensive in the installment so far, costing a gargantuan $340 million to produce and another $100 million to promote to global audiences.

 

$800m+ to Profit

 

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

 

$800m+ to Profit

 

More like 1B since a good portion of the franchise gross comes from CHI

[Bob Train]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

More like 1B since a good portion of the franchise gross comes from CHI

This one will probably be less China-loaded than previous ones because China will top out at 100-150 at the max. But it could still increase over F9 worldwide due to COVID suppressing markets for F9, particularly in Asia and Latin America.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 2501/299226 37592.77 2050 shows

Elemental MTC1 - 2640/301047 39729.98 2065 shows 

 

Worst 2nd day presales that I have tracked. I dont know why they started so early. 

[Maggie]

Well, this is a surprise

 

‘Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts’ More Than Meets The Eye At $68M-$70M Opening – Box Office Forecast

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-1235371748/

Edited May 18, 2023 by Maggie

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Well, this is a surprise

 

‘Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts’ More Than Meets The Eye At $68M-$70M Opening – Box Office Forecast

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-1235371748/

 

Deadline and Shawn should talk:)...

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1 - 2640/301047 39729.98 2065 shows 

 

Worst 2nd day presales that I have tracked. I dont know why they started so early. 

Eh. My region had BIG 50% jump.

 

Went from 12/34177 to 18/34177

[Maggie]

Quote

We are hearing presales are great,

Can you guys confirm?

[Jonwo]

How much is Paramount is paying Deadline for that tracking? 

 

 

[JWR]

My guess is maybe they're hoping that word of mouth via Cannes and Annecy will give it a boost. 

[GOGODanca]

Just now, Maggie said:

Can you guys confirm?

no tracking thus far in this thread for Rise of the Beasts points to a 60m OW, its looking more like shazam - dungeons and dragons this far out

[TheFlatLannister]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Well, this is a surprise

 

‘Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts’ More Than Meets The Eye At $68M-$70M Opening – Box Office Forecast

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-1235371748/

Deadline has lost it 

 

$70M is more likely the final than OW 

[keysersoze123]

We could be underestimating the movie but 70m would mean high single digit previews. Not seeing that for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Eh. My region had BIG 50% jump.

 

Went from 12/34177 to 18/34177

I expect Ruby Effing Gillman to beat this. This is going to be Pixar at the absolute bottom. I am predicting Wish wont be the movie to recover Disney animation either. 

[Maggie]

Deadline tracking overestimated Guardians too. It only came close to tracking because the movie was very good and had insane WOM. I can't see the same for Transformers. If it does 50M OW, they should be happy