The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1 Previews Final - 177526/957474 2975651.02 5908 shows. 

 

I wont have MTC2 until morning but based on sample I have seen it looks like 10m previews today. With the early shows yesterday I am expecting 11m previews estimated. 

Mermaid MTC2 Previews Final - 137571/594823 1877391.95 4304 shows

 

I would stick to what I predicted. Lowest it can go is 10.5m. 

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

432 Showings

16382

+2703

56639

ATP:

15.34

0.995	Avatar 2 T-1	36.02M
0.922	JW Dominion T-1	38.36M
2.734	Ghostbusters T-1	33.22M

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

432 Showings

19647

+3265

56639

ATP:

15.17

0.991	Avatar 2 T-0	35.86M
0.940	JW Dominion T-0	39.08M
2.432	Ghostbusters T-0	29.55M

[excel1]

The Flash note there is entirely accurate and reasonable.

[TigerPaw]

Mermaid is not doing well in Asia at all.. Flopping like a fish out of water here. Hope it opens well in North America?..

[PrinceRico]

5 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Mermaid is not doing well in Asia at all.. Flopping like a fish out of water here. Hope it opens well in North America?..

It definitely open well in North America. Could do 400 million total thanks to WOM.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

10 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Mermaid is not doing well in Asia at all.. Flopping like a fish out of water here. Hope it opens well in North America?..

It has a solid chance at reaching $400M in the US. The movie feels like it was tailor made for Americans first.

[WorkingonaName]

$400M in the US and $250M in the rest of the world would be a 62% spilt. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Wesley said:

4% isn’t much reduction for Flash range is still quite healthy $85M - 135M

But the previous range was $115m-$145m. 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Krissykins

[Joyous Legion]

The private point estimate went from something like 125->120 I guess but the geomean went from ~127 -> 107M (-16%) which is more meaningful imo

[kayumanggi]

 

[filmlover]

Those would be decent numbers for No Hard Feelings.

[keysersoze123]

Weird is for Mermaid no regional(phily as expected over indexed big time) or national chain honed in the on the number. Only other metric I did not adjust is ATP. may be with this releasing close to memorial day, there were more kids yesterday than normal. So even few % adjust will take the ratios further up. 

[Shawn Robbins]

16 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

As always, I Appreciate the work you do for us Shawn.

Thank you, but I also want to reflect that back to all the people here as well who keep this thread thriving with their insights. It's nice to see this community so active and engaged again after the dark days of 2020-2021.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Those would be decent numbers for No Hard Feelings.

I wonder what the budget is? I doubt it's as cheap as Bad Teacher but $40-50m would be okay. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird is for Mermaid no regional(phily as expected over indexed big time) or national chain honed in the on the number. Only other metric I did not adjust is ATP. may be with this releasing close to memorial day, there were more kids yesterday than normal. So even few % adjust will take the ratios further up. 

Yeah I don’t believe them. Disney previews reporting is infuriating. 

[Pinacolada]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder what the budget is? I doubt it's as cheap as Bad Teacher but $40-50m would be okay. 

 

 

Yeah Jlaw definitely got PAID for this thing, as what the initial reports said. I bet she's getting $15m-20m up front. So probably a $40m budget? Hopefully lower like $35m?

 

So hoping it can open in the high teen area to $20m area, then leg out to like $60m DOM? And if JLaw is enough of a star still WW, get to $100m WW.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Pinacolada

[Shawn Robbins]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird is for Mermaid no regional(phily as expected over indexed big time) or national chain honed in the on the number. Only other metric I did not adjust is ATP. may be with this releasing close to memorial day, there were more kids yesterday than normal. So even few % adjust will take the ratios further up. 

I felt $11 million was in the bag earlier this week too, but let's see how the weekend plays out. We're all convinced it won't pull an Aladdin in terms of daily holds, but maybe it can surprise and at least get a little closer than we think.

 

That, or I'm just gonna wish I'd stuck with previous long range numbers. 

[dallas]

There's no way Flash opens to only $70M, right? Black Adam did $67M and Flash is already outpacing BA by a lot. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

There's no way Flash opens to only $70M, right? Black Adam did $67M and Flash is already outpacing BA by a lot. 

Take this to the movie thread rather. This should be just about presales. We already had this done yesterday. 

 

 

[Jonwo]

29 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah Jlaw definitely got PAID for this thing, as what the initial reports said. I bet she's getting $15m-20m up front. So probably a $40m budget? Hopefully lower like $35m?

 

So hoping it can open in the high teen area to $20m area, then leg out to like $60m DOM? And if JLaw is enough of a star still WW, get to $100m WW.

The only comparison I can use is Ticket to Paradise which cost $60m but that had Julia Roberts and George Clooney.