No Way Home Weekdays/Matrix & Sing Thread (12/20-23) | 37.1M Monday/32M Tues | King's Man 800K Previews

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

7.25

4.2

Sing 1 increased in day 2, but -11% isn’t too bad, sequel should have a bit more OD heaviness anyway.   
 

-35% is grim. 

[Agafin]

So the last time Christmas Eve fell on a Friday was all the way back in 2010, that's a long time ago. Comparisons can be way off but if NWH plays like Tron Legacy (it's weekdays' holds have been closest to it except for Tuesday), that would lead to a $19m Friday (-35%) and $92m weekend (-65%) if the Thursday remains $29.5m. NWH can hold a bit better because of PLF/IMAX but anything above $19m would be acceptable.

[Shanks]

Each year 24th December drop have been 40% to 50% for top grossing movies, Even, Titanic (1997) fell -42%.

 

These are least dropping movies on 24th Dec. 

 

The Force Awakens (2015) -28%

TROS (2019)  -31%

Avatar (2009) -32%

Hobbit (2013) -33% [All 3 Hobbit's drop were in 30s]

Rogue One -33%

MI (2011) -36%

 

But... Back in 1998 -  Stuart Little managed to fall only -20% on 24th Dec (Also, it was Friday ~ though it's gross was too low just 3m)..there is little fockers in 2010 too but it had 40% drop.

 

So, If NWH manages 22m (-25%) it will be Epic hold, 17.5m (-40%) would be normal and 20.5m (-30%) will be great.

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Shanks

[Ghost Mountain]

I'm surprised Matrix is flopping this bad. The trailers had good numbers and the original is still well known to all ages.

[Agafin]

21 minutes ago, Shanks said:

Each year 24th December drop have been 40% to 50% for top grossing movies, Even, Titanic (1997) fell -42%.

 

These are least dropping movies on 24th Dec. 

 

The Force Awakens (2015) -28%

TROS (2019)  -31%

Avatar (2009) -32%

Hobbit (2013) -33% [All 3 Hobbit's drop were in 30s]

Rogue One -33%

MI (2011) -36%

 

But... Back in 1998 -  Stuart Little managed to fall only -20% on 24th Dec (Also, it was Friday ~ though it's gross was too low just 3m)..there is little fockers in 2010 too but it had 40% drop.

 

So, If NWH manages 22m (-25%) it will be Epic hold, 17.5m (-40%) would be normal and 20.5m (-30%) will be great.

 

One important factor to consider here is movie length. Titanic and the 3 lotr movie were all very long (about 3 hours long) so on a day when theaters close early, they probably had 1 or 2 showings at most per venue which explains their 40%+ drops despite great (god tier in the case of Titanic) WOM. Stuart Little only has a 1h24min running time so it could easily be given 3 or 4 showings on that day.

Edited December 24, 2021 by Agafin
typo

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope. Canada is so small to make any impact. Besides US drop on Tuesday was worse, Canada was flat from Monday.

 

Admits wise Tuesday was quite even with Monday. Quite common for big openers.

I think Baumer said that although Canada was flat from Monday, it should’ve usually been up 50-70% there because of cheap Tuesdays? 
 

Great Thursday for Spider-Man. Not so much the others. 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Krissykins

[charlie Jatinder]

Here's one way to go about things. SM:NWH 23rd Dec is $29.5M. Comparing that with other XMAS biggies and their 24-26 Dec numbers

 

SW: TFA - 76% of $133M - $101M

Rogue One - 129% of $73.1M - $94M

SW: TLJ - 101% of $73M - $74M

SW: TRoS - 100% of $86M - $86M

 

$89M Avg of 4. I think $90-95M is great place to be for Spider-man: No Way Home. 

 

Bonuses

Spoiler

Aquaman - 157% of $49.8M - $78M

Spider-verse - 541% of $14.9M - $80M

Jumanji - 200% of $45.25M - $91M

 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think Baumer said that although Canada was flat from Monday, it should’ve usually been up 50-70% there because of cheap Tuesdays? 

Not for mega openers, they don't. Its not that big a difference 

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Here's one way to go about things. SM:NWH 23rd Dec is $29.5M. Comparing that with other XMAS biggies and their 24-26 Dec numbers

 

SW: TFA - 76% of $133M - $101M

Rogue One - 129% of $73.1M - $94M

SW: TLJ - 101% of $73M - $74M

SW: TRoS - 100% of $86M - $86M

 

$89M Avg of 4. I think $90-95M is great place to be for Spider-man: No Way Home. 

 

Bonuses

Spoiler

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Aquaman - 157% of $49.8M - $78M

Spider-verse - 541% of $14.9M - $80M

Jumanji - 200% of $45.25M - $91M

 

 

From same calendar:  

Tron Legacy gives 92

Narnia 94

Unfortunate Events 85  

Ocean’s 12 108

National Treasure 90

Blade 3 97  

 

Yeah 100 probably not happening. Maybe 20-39-34 more realistic 

 

[Shanks]

36 minutes ago, Agafin said:

One important factor to consider here is movie length. Titanic and the 3 lotr movie were all very long (about 3 hours long) so on a day when theaters close early, they probably had 1 or 2 showings at most per venue which explains their 40%+ drops despite great (god tier in the case of Titanic) WOM. Stuart Little only has a 1h24min running time so it could easily be given 3 or 4 showings on that day.

 

This is kind of wrong, because Titanic didn't become longer on 24th December. It was 3 Hour movie on 23rd Dec too and day before. When we are talking about % day by day drop we are talking about same film's drop. 

 

The longer vs. shorter movie runtime comparison only holds true when comparing daily grosses, because daily grosses may become less for movie having less vs. more shows.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

I so wanna enjoy say a 35% drop on Friday.

 

[Pinacolada]

Anyway, I watched Nightmare Alley. It was good. I'd recommend it. If you're worried about Covid, there's a very solid chance you'll be the only one in the theater

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, Ghost Mountain said:

I'm surprised Matrix is flopping this bad. The trailers had good numbers and the original is still well known to all ages.

As are the sequels

[european1992]

Matrix 4 is giving Scream 4.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

7.25

4.2

WB really fucked up with The Matrix.

[Sindreee]

12 hours ago, Mango said:

 

Disney sucks too and while they are involved with this movie, it's all Sony on a distribution standpoint. They were definitely a lot more pro-theatrical than Disney or WB.

Didn’t Sony sell of some of their movies to streaming this year?

[wildphantom]

I’m reading so much ‘I turned it off after half an hour’ rhetoric about Matrix. If that doesn’t sum up the conversations Wachowski is having in the movie then I don’t know what does. 

 

It’s been two days since I saw it and the layers and ideas in it are still blowing my mind.  

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, Sindreee said:

Didn’t Sony sell of some of their movies to streaming this year?

yep. Vivo and Cinderella come to mind. 
 

I loved Vivo 

[AJG]

15 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

yep. Vivo and Cinderella come to mind. 
 

I loved Vivo 

Vivo, Cinderella, Robinsons vs The Machines, Hotel Transylvania 4.

 

I think there’s a couple more.

[Justin4125]

12 hours ago, Mango said:

 

Disney sucks too and while they are involved with this movie, it's all Sony on a distribution standpoint. They were definitely a lot more pro-theatrical than Disney or WB.

 

The fact that Sony doesnt have a Disney+/HBO max probably explains why they seem pro-theatrical...... I have no doubt that if Sony had a shiny new streaming service they would have done the exact same thing as WB/Disney

 

Seeing Matrix struggle breaks my heart a little. I didn't think the movie was bad at all, if I had to bet I'd say people will appreciate it much more in a few years than they do right now. At least its OS numbers seem respectable at the moment, Spidey + HBO max was always going to make DOM an uphill battle

Edited December 24, 2021 by Justin4125