FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE SECRETS OF DUMBLEDORE WEEKEND THREAD | Read the first post for the rules

[RyneOh1040]

3 minutes ago, dudalb said:

That is not a big enough number to justify a fourth film.

Problem is they have lost the General Audience. And it is the GA who makes or breaks a film, as much as the fanboys don't like to admit that.

And, frankly, why would people who have lost faith in the frachise, not think that the people who messed up the previous films would not mess up the duel as well?

it was enough to guarantee the dune sequel from the same studio. 

[dudalb]

Just now, RyneOh1040 said:

it was enough to guarantee the dune sequel from the same studio. 

Apples and ornages.

FOr one thing DUne was well received as a whole; FB3 was not.

I see Denial is in full operation here.

[Grebacio]

10 minutes ago, dudalb said:

November last year was a long long way form being the worst moment of hte pandemic.

@Flamengo81 said November was a worse moment, not THE worst moment.

[dudalb]

14 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Dune released during a worse moment of the pandemic, with day and date release and costed 35M less. Also it's not even close as an IP to Wizarding World. I don't think this is a great comparison personally.

The biggie is that Dune was well recieved, people liked it.

Dumbledore, to put it mildly was not.

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

@Flamengo81 said November was a worse moment, not THE worst moment.

Dumbledore also lost a major market, and a market where Potter was very popular.

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Ginny's journey is WILD in the books though. She starts off as a Potter fangirl, eventually grows out of that phase and has decreasing page time and by Book 5 has completely gotten over her infatuation and is dating other guys (at which point, she is at her most irrelevant), but in Book 6, is cool with getting into a relationship with Harry, who btw has never paid her any attention before and  suddenly realizes he's in love with her because... she's a young fuckable Mrs. Weasley and Mrs. Weasley is the closest thing he had to a mother? 🤢

 

I'm not entirely convinced that even Rowling knew Ginny would be endgame before Half-Blood Prince. By Order of the Phoenix, she had reduced her to a non-entity.

Or a version of Ron that he could be with, but same difference, really. It's like how Ben Affleck married Jennifer Garner; people always said he never seemed that into her and didn't understand them as a couple. But take Garner and Hilary Swank and Matt Damon and you could totally buy them playing triplets.

 

JKR always said wrote the last chapter of the series way back when she was starting out: that tracks because the writing in the epilogue is extremely basic, and it includes those pairings.

It's just that as she wrote, IMO the story started evolving in another direction and she indulged that with Order of the Phoenix. So, Ginny is over Harry, dating other guys, he sees this and genuinely couldn't care less. The chick he is dating, is convinced he actually likes Hermione, whose "love advice" for Harry never actually helps him with Cho ahead of time.

 

But with Half-Blood Prince, Rowling plugged ahead with the old ships like Book Five never happened: Ginny's love life now piques Harry's jealousy, plus Hermione has to cheat to help Ron make the Quidditch team because she looooves him so much...when he'd played on the team the year before and even had a big heroic moment (which Hermione wasn't there to see because she was off with Harry).

 

JKR had a certain idea for the romances in HP, very melodramatic yet comical but more of a sidebar, so it was rather clumsily worked into the story. Plus  she was unwilling to do anything remotely "controversial" in terms of sex in the HP books, so you get the Lupin/Tonks marriage after like three weeks of dating, rather than a pregnancy happening before the wedding. Rita Skeeter's unauthorized Dumbledore biography only reveals a "close friendship" with Grindelwald and the book itself is only laced with hints. Some fans picked up on it immediately but her approach wasn't exactly brave by 2007.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

There were a lot of headlines that weekend saying something like "'Divergent' Breaks the Y.A. Curse" because it was the only good YA franchise launch in a while. 

 

Lionsgate badly screwed it by deciding to split the final movie for no reason apart from they had already done it with Twilight and Hunger Games forgetting that those franchises were 3 times the size of Divergent, and then not even filming the next 2 movies back to back because they thought they could get a bigger distribution fee for the final movie when the 3rd one does great at the box office.

The Divergent fans didn't even like the third book that much, the second movie didn't make as much: everyone except Lionsgate seemed to know what a mistake it was to split Allegiant into two.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[RyneOh1040]

Just now, dudalb said:

Apples and ornages.

FOr one thing DUne was well received as a whole; FB3 was not.

I see Denial is in full operation here.

lol, it's not about denial. again, i have no real care if a sequel gets made i just think its funny that reception is the thing that you think determines everything.  studios make films because they make money. period. i know dune can seem like an out of field comparison, but its not. it's high budget. it's niche. its RISKY. it has a much much smaller built in audience and it's ceiling is unknown.  could the pandemic have supressed dunes numbers? absolutely! could that level of recption also be about the ceiling of a high concept sci fi film that will now require you to have seen part 1 to understand part 2, absolutely!

 

i think at this point it could really go either way. the series goes quietly into the night, or wb combines 4 and 5 into one film and sees if they can pocket a little coin, keep the author of their biggest IP in their good graces and move on to whatever is next (because something is inevitably next).

[Flamengo81]

15 minutes ago, dudalb said:

November last year was a long long way form being the worst moment of hte pandemic.

I never said it was THE worst moment of the pandemic. There is a really big difference of saying it was A worse moment of the pandemic compared to now than saying it was THE worse moment of the pandemic.

[DAJK]

Honestly, I'm not sure why the Potter fans wouldn't be happy with this series wrapping up as a four-part HBO Max miniseries as opposed to a final movie. More time for storytelling, more time to delve into the characters and their relationships, something which the movies have been lacking. 

[RyneOh1040]

11 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The biggie is that Dune was well recieved, people liked it.

Dumbledore, to put it mildly was not.

critics and people are two different things. i don't think this sequel is by any means loved but i think fans of the series feel this film is a stumbling step in the right direction and has its moments.

 

i actually think FB is in a far worse predicament than being hated and that is that most people are indifferent to it.  this was the film to have a chance to course correct that and the studio/rowling missed that mark.  

Edited April 17, 2022 by RyneOh1040

[WeThrones]

I still stand by my prediction that if this makes more than $400M they will make fourth and final movie. 

 

They will reduce the budget and make Dumbledore the main character. Stories of the previous main characters are basically finished with The Secrets of Dumbledore, so they will play supporting role. Probably not even all of them.

[mitchellsilver]

41 minutes ago, dudalb said:

November last year was a long long way form being the worst moment of hte pandemic.

WTH LOL Dune was released in September 2021

[Starphanluke]

The thing about Dune is it actively shows potential for growth, whereas with Fantastic Beasts there is a very clear sign of bleeding box office potential. It's clearly on life support, which makes greenlighting any more installments a harder and harder proposition.

[Claire of Themyscira]

I missed the drama again...

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

23 minutes ago, mitchellsilver said:

WTH LOL Dune was released in September 2021

 

Dune had a staggered release, mid-September in parts of Europe and October 21 (Thursday previews) in the US. WB wanted to make what they could overseas before the HBO Max copy went online.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Brainbug]

29 minutes ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

I missed the drama again...

 

Tbh wasnt the spiciest of dramas. No real meltdown, no threadban that im aware of.

 

So far.

[ViewerAnon]

There are variables with DUNE that don’t make it a perfect comparison, particularly the day-and-date streaming release and Legendary being a production partner. (And as has been said, DUNE’s more positive reaction has to make the parties involved more confident than the Wizarding World folks that the next movie won’t slide)

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, RyneOh1040 said:

it was enough to guarantee the dune sequel from the same studio.

 

Dune had a lower budget and was financed by both Legendary and Warner Bros. Had a day and date release with HBOMax, was a big hit on HBOMax as well, and got nominated for Best Picture and won six Oscars.

 

This comparison makes no sense.

[RyneOh1040]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Dune had a lower budget and was financed by both Legendary and Warner Bros. Had a day and date release with HBOMax, was a big hit on HBOMax as well, and got nominated for Best Picture and won six Oscars.

 

This comparison makes no sense.

it kind of does though…the budgets are 35 mil off which is a drop in the bucket when the numbers are that big 165/200), again being a big hit on hbomax is great but pretty irrelevant to box office numbers so far (ie we have no cases where a film came out day in and exponentially grew from a theatrical release). and again, these kinds of accolades are great but just don’t go very far in terms in determining whether a sequel is produced.

 

i can understand why it seems way off to compare them but it isn’t when you make it a numbers game (which is what the studio is going to do). 

[WeThrones]

5 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

There are variables with DUNE that don’t make it a perfect comparison, particularly the day-and-date streaming release and Legendary being a production partner. (And as has been said, DUNE’s more positive reaction has to make the parties involved more confident than the Wizarding World folks that the next movie won’t slide)

So what is your expectation?