TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[M37]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

People always make fun of studios for giving money to the Northman and stuff like that, but can someone please possibly explain to me the added subscribers per dollar logic that these big streamers are making if that number is true? That shit is way, way more fallacious than funding the Northman.

I mean, there’s a reason Netflix’s business model is starting to break. It’s like these exec don’t understand what people are paying for at a fundamental: theatrical is for experience, streaming is for ubiquity of content 

 

If you’re putting the former on steaming to early (esp day & date), or spending a huge budget on the latter, you’re doing it wrong 

[WittyUsername]

I guess we finally know what the highest grossing movie of 2020 would have been. 

[M37]

TG2 OW Sun > Strange OW Sun ($38.9) is not unreasonable at this point 

 

That surely didn’t seem possible 4-5 weeks ago

[excel1]

So how big of a bump is TC's next film likely to see? When is the old TC going to team up with the new TC?

[NCsoft]

25 minutes ago, excel1 said:

So how big of a bump is TC's next film likely to see? When is the old TC going to team up with the new TC?

 

Maybe Mission Impossible 7 next year could try for 1B, given that it has a China release and if quality is on par with the previous few entries. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WittyUsername said:

I guess we finally know what the highest grossing movie of 2020 would have been. 

I actually think the two year delay ended up really helping the movie tbh. Yeah, the studio was promoting it pre-COVID, but it wasn't No Time to Die or Black Widow (movies that were starting to kick their marketing campaigns into high gear right as the world began to fall apart and had mostly lost that momentum by the time they finally saw the light of day more than a year later).

[Tokugennumataka]

Excellent. Realistically:

19

33

40 (+21%) 

38 (-5%) 

28.5 (-25%) // 130/159

As a bull scenario:

19

35 (estimate keeps rising thanks to stellar wom) 

45 (+30%) 

46 (+2%) 

35 (-24%) // 145/180

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[Darth Homer]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

It depends on the rest of the night and tomorrow. I think $150m 4 day is safely locked.  $170m wouldn't shock me.  

Outgross the original film by Tuesday?

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Excellent. Realistically:

19

33

40 (+21%) 

38 (-5%) 

28.5 (-25%) // 130/159

As a bull scenario:

19

35 (estimate keeps rising thanks to stellar wom) 

45 (+30%) 

46 (+2%) 

35 (-24%) // 145/180

 

Monday may not drop that high with great wom and patriotic holiday

[Mango]

Hoping for a Sunday increase here

[interiorgatordecorator]

What's the last non cbm (which will always be frontloaded) non animated blockbuster that had amazing WOM and how did that translate to legs?

 

TFA?

Edited May 28, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[PDC1987]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

TG is truly the history of the year so far (along with EEAAO) 

 

But it's nice seeing DS2 finally recovering a bit, it can reach 377M by Monday, which probably locks +400M finish. Still not a great run, but it's not awful too like the 375M finish some expect in the first days.

The first one did $232.6 million.

[Tokugennumataka]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

What's the last non cbm (which will always be frontloaded) blockbuster that had amazing WOM and how did that translate to legs?

 

TFA?

Jumanji flicks, Zootopia, Incredibles 2, Aladdin, TS4 etc. were wom giants but 'not as good as originals' sentiment were strong with most of them, except maybe Jumanji. 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, PDC1987 said:

The first one did $232.6 million.

Yes, and? 

 

I was talking about the run. Opening with 188M and having a 2.2x multiplier isn't a great run, but it's better than an awful 2x or less like some predict.

[charlie Jatinder]

Bob's burger 3.9-4M true fri

 

Strange probably 4.25-4.5

[redfirebird2008]

3 hours ago, DS2HaterLegion Confirmed said:

As a Northman budget criticizer… completely agree. All these tv shows seems massively overfunded to me. As an explanation, I can say that it is based on Silicon Valley reasoning instead of Hollywood reasoning — streamers/streaming divisions modeling themselves as being in a temporary phase where they’re battling for market share, where each % will return additional untold fortunes once entrenched and (eventually) properly capitalized upon.   
 

But this thinking is basically nonsense. You can’t entrench your market share without continuing the massive spends, and you can’t normalize spending without losing some of the share it got you. Uber lost 30B in a decade and do they have a profitable business to show for it? No, they have the prospect of throwing away tens of billions more or shutting down. Netflix’s outrageous content spends have resulted in lowering market share , a stock collapse, and big purse cuts. The marginal dollar here is not seeing a positive return, but Wall Street likes SV more than HW so the content spend mania has been propped up short term.   
 

I think things will level out here in the order of 1-3 years.

Netflix seems like a massively overvalued company, even after a large drop in the stock price this year. They don’t have a 100 year library of beloved content.
 

Now that all the major studios no longer need a streaming middle-man like Netflix, it’s a question of who has the best content? Netflix is pretty far down the list. One wonders when subscribers will shift their money to the other streaming services. 

[ringedmortality]

I think what everyone is forgetting is that theatrical movies do better on streaming that straight to streaming movies, generally speaking. In the immortal words of James Gray,

[lilmac]

More Kosinski / Cruise pairings please!

[Ryan Reynolds]

6 minutes ago, lilmac said:

More Kosinski / Cruise pairings please!

New Trek movie , Cruise can be villain

Edited May 28, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[Ryan Reynolds]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK (2022)