TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[John Marston]

what is the tracking for Dominion? 

[wildphantom]

I’ll admit even a couple of months ago I’d have been ecstatic with $150 million total domestic for Maverick. Even if it was my most anticipated film in years, I never in my wildest dreams thought it would take that number out in likely 4 days. LOL. 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

You be silent.

 

 

You probably mean the first JP. And btw, i am probably the last person here who needs to be convinced that Dominion will gross a lot more than Fallen KIngdom 😅

Unimaginably unlikely. At worst and I mean worst case scenario, it does a little better than FK OW with slightly worse legs and even that reaches above 400M comfortably.

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I think we should remember that the overrall white population in the US is around 60% so the race demo breakdown for TGM is actually pretty average porportionally speaking.

Yes but considering cities contribute more, it is better to look at demographic of urban America.

 

2019 was like this.

 

[Brainbug]

Just now, John Marston said:

what is the tracking for Dominion? 

 

Box office Pro has it at $160,000,000 – $210,000,000 OW for the moment for a 443M - 590M total.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

what is the tracking for Dominion? 

I recommend going to the Tracking thread for the latest

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yes. Why not.

I am thinking 140/350 at this point and so I definitely think its possible. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Unimaginably unlikely. At worst and I mean worst case scenario, it does a little better than FK OW with slightly worse legs and even that reaches above 400M comfortably.

 

Also people should imo consider that even Fallen Kingdom - which was bashed by the critics - got over quite well with audiences. These movies are to a large degree critic-proof, so even if its a "bad movie", it could still get a monster opening and good legs.

 

It all hinges ofc on audience reception. But imo it would be way harder to fuck a Jurassic World movie up to a degree that the GA would dislike it rather than just making a fun movie with dinosaur action lol.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 140/350 at this point and so I definitely think its possible. 

 

Sorry to say that in this way but i will pray every night from now on till June 10th that you are wrong.

[LegendaryBen]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

You probably mean the first JP. And btw, i am probably the last person here who needs to be convinced that Dominion will gross a lot more than Fallen KIngdom 😅

I meant JP. My apologizes. Based on gut instinct and the JP cast returning to JWD, there's no way Dominion will 36% below FK like JP3 fell 36% below TLW:JP2.

Edited May 28, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Also people should imo consider that even Fallen Kingdom - which was bashed by the critics - got over quite well with audiences. These movies are to a large degree critic-proof, so even if its a "bad movie", it could still get a monster opening and good legs.

 

It all hinges ofc on audience reception. But imo it would be way harder to fuck a Jurassic World movie up to a degree that the GA would dislike it rather than just making a fun movie with dinosaur action lol.

the main reason I am thinking it may drop is because it has no reason to increase. it's just a generic sequel and those lose audience as they go.

 

ofc none of this is based on any tracking or data, just what I thinks.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 140/350 at this point and so I definitely think its possible. 

That would be awful. I can see the OW (despite thinking it's unlikely), but these legs are too bad i think.

 

FK was already very bad reviewed and just ok with audiences and still got 2.81x 

 

The movie would need to be a complete trainwreck to get 2.5x imo. 

 

 

[BruiseCruise]

Do we get update demo information after a week or so? i feel like that will be more telling than who rushed to see it first day and previews

[keysersoze123]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

That would be awful. I can see the OW (despite thinking it's unlikely), but these legs are too bad i think.

 

FK was already very bad reviewed and just ok with audiences and still got 2.81x 

 

The movie would need to be a complete trainwreck to get 2.5x imo. 

 

 

I think reviews will be awful as well. Let us wait and watch. Plus movies are getting more frontloaded and many are waiting for movies to hit streaming. 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Sorry to say that in this way but i will pray every night from now on till June 10th that you are wrong.

I hope your prayers come true not from any interest in the movie per say but just for you :-)

That said I have to predict based on what I see at this point. 

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

They are already.  Anecdotally, groups of 12-14 year olds were talking about it last night and all making plans for early next week to see it now that they are out of school.  

I doubt this movie will be expanding that young. Under-17 demo will still be pretty small for this.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

the main reason I am thinking it may drop is because it has no reason to increase. it's just a generic sequel and those lose audience as they go.

 

ofc none of this is based on any tracking or data, just what I thinks.

 

"No reason to increase" - sorry Charlie, hard disagree here. The old cast coming back is a big Plus for Dominion, it is basically a TFA for Jurassic Park fans only we know that the old trio will actually share scenes together. Also, the concept of dinosaurs on the mainland is completely new for the franchise (Lost World doesnt count, that was 1 sequence) and it is something that practically all fans always wanted to get from these movies. I woundt underestimate the Finale Factor as well, cause this is beeing promoted as the conclusion of the franchise till this point.

 

It has such a good premise for a fun, family-skewing summer popcorn movie. Just like the first JW and unlike FK, which had a much darker tone and lower scale.

 

All this ofc, is only my opinion as well.

[Eric Prime]

Deadline updated. Sorry if this was already shared

 

Quote

1.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 4,735 theaters Fri $51.8M, 3-day $123M, 4-day $150M/Wk 1

2.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 3,805 theaters (-729), Fri $4.4M (-48%), 3 day $17M (-47%), 4 day $21.8M, total $376.1M, /Wk 4
The Marvel movie will overtake Warner Bros.’ The Batman ($369.3M) as the highest grossing movie of 2022 to date.

 

3.) The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th/Dis) 3,425 theaters, Fri $5.7M, 3-day $15.6M, 4-day $17.3M/Wk 1

4.) Downton Abbey: A New Era (Foc) 3,830 theaters (+10), Fri $1.8M (-75%), 3-day $6.4M (-60%), 4-day $8.2M, total $30.7M/Wk 2

5.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 2944 theaters (-761), Fri $1.2M (-18%), 3-day $4.9M (-20%), 4-day $6.6M, total $83.3M/Wk 6

6.) Sonic the Hedgehog  2 (Par) 2,329 (-614) theaters, Fri $670K (-28%), 3-day $2.9M (-29%) , 4-day $3.6M, Total $186.2M/Wk 8

7.) Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) 1,189 (-389) theaters, Fri $693K (-22%), 3-day $2.5M (-19%), 4-day $3.2M, Total $57.5M/Wk 10
The Daniels’ movie is going to $60M. Yes, it is.

 

8.) F3: Fun and Frustration (Independent Indian) 400 theaters, Fri $518K, 3-day $1.66M , 4-day $1.7M/Wk 1
Book in 115 markets, the Telugu movie posted good results we here in NYC, Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte and Austin. Anil Ravipudi directed and written movie follows Venky and Varun, who try to get out of their financial problems. But what will happen when they meet the Pragathi Family who are greedy for money?

 

9.) The Lost City (Par) 1,027 (-369) theaters, Fri $400K (-5%), 3-day $1.54M (-1%), 4-day $1.97M, Total $101.9M/Wk 10

10.) Men (A24) 2,196 (-16) theaters, Fri $379K (-73%), 3-day $1.3M (-59%), 4-day $1.7M, Total $6.4M/Wk 2

 

[grey ghost]

If this hits 450m, I wonder if we'll see a flood of movies specifically targeting the older white crowd.

 

During the IP Era that demographic seems underserved.

 

Or will they treat TGM like the exception and lightning in a bottle and think it's success can't easily be replicated.

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

the main reason I am thinking it may drop is because it has no reason to increase. it's just a generic sequel and those lose audience as they go.

 

ofc none of this is based on any tracking or data, just what I thinks.

It's not a generic sequel and it has a reason to increase.