Top Gun Maverick Weekdays Thread | 15.8m Tue, 14.8m Wed, 14.5m Thurs, ??m Fri

[aabattery]

Tom Cruise's top two highest weekends gonna end up being from the same movie. Can't even entirely rule out that his top 3 weekends might be from this movie.

[Shawn Robbins]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even the worst case is crazy strong number. I feel at worst it should do like 50% increase to ~ 21m friday and high 60s weekend. Best case I dont even want to think until we have a friday number. 

 

@Shawn Are you still sticking to 57m 2nd weekend for TGM?

Nope. That $57M is two days old and we usually don't revise past a certain point due to exhibitors and clients needing numbers before a certain point in the week... but this might be a rare exception for a quick online update before Fri numbers hit if the discrepancy is big enough.

[Gavin Feng]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Nope. That $57M is two days old and we usually don't revise past a certain point due to exhibitors and clients needing numbers before a certain point in the week... but this might be a rare exception for a quick online update before Fri numbers hit if the discrepancy is big enough.

 

Entering the weekend, TGM is saying

 

 

 

[wildphantom]

19 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Nope. That $57M is two days old and we usually don't revise past a certain point due to exhibitors and clients needing numbers before a certain point in the week... but this might be a rare exception for a quick online update before Fri numbers hit if the discrepancy is big enough.

Shawn and co’s update later….

 

[Tokugennumataka]

The BO has been fucking weird the past few days specifically since Victoria Day. (For holdovers). Randomly inflated weekdays (which continues to this date), abysmal Memorial day Sunday. Makes me wonder if we're gonna see another weak Fri jump across the board. 

[titanic2187]

9 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

The BO has been fucking weird the past few days specifically since Victoria Day. (For holdovers). Randomly inflated weekdays (which continues to this date), abysmal Memorial day Sunday. Makes me wonder if we're gonna see another weak Fri jump across the board. 

Ikr, Last Friday DS2 was 47% lower than the previous Friday despite mega-newcomer like TGM. I was thinking no way its weekend drop can be worse than that given that sunday being holiday eve, referring the historical trend.
 

However DS2 memorial weekend drop by 50.3% in the end! Meaning Saturday and Sunday bring no holiday benefit to DS2. To make thing worse, many holdovers like Sonic2, BG suffered the similar trend. 

[BruiseCruise]

Its crazy to think that TG2 has a legit chance of having a better 2nd weekend than NWH did

[Gavin Feng]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

Its crazy to think that TG2 has a legit chance of having a better 2nd weekend than NWH did

 

NWH made another $334M after its first 10 days.

 

If TGM follow that...

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

Checked lot of summer Fri jumps with exception of a few .most are muted . Avg  range 50-65% Fri jump.

There is no way it's jumping like aladdin/POTC3/solo/f6 bse there weekdays were not as strong.

 

POTC2  though being a July release had some strong weekday holds too -48.7%, -10%,-13%,-12% and there was no holiday that week.

Jumped 50% Fri,34% ,sun -23.7%

 

Fri will definitely be more muted but sun hold will be way better around low 20s wouldn't be suprised with sub 20% drop either.

 

My final prediction

+50-55%

+35%

-20-25%

Going with 75m final.

 

Don't see this below 70m.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Tokugennumataka said:

The BO has been fucking weird the past few days specifically since Victoria Day. (For holdovers). Randomly inflated weekdays (which continues to this date), abysmal Memorial day Sunday. Makes me wonder if we're gonna see another weak Fri jump across the board. 

I think there was some avoiding the news bump for weekdays after Uvalde, and perhaps some streaming effect keeping numbers down on Sunday, but that’s speculative, and agree on the overall weirdness 

[stripe]

TGM biggest 2nd weekend of the year for sure. Incredible

[BruiseCruise]

Looking at the holds of Sonic 2 and TLC, I don't think putting TG2 on Streaming at say 90 days would really have an impact

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Shawn - you can go ahead and update it.  The $57m number is going to look completely silly in a few hours.  No offense, but it looked completely silly two days ago.  

And you can take a warning. Please be more respectful with your posts in the future.

 

If you made a prediction two days ago, then show it. And if you end up correct with whatever number you put your name to two days ago (assuming you posted a number at all), be proud but don't act entitled about it.

 

If you didn't, well... glass houses.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I can see anything from $64M to $83M this weekend. Personally I went with $72M in the Derby (roughly +50, +30, -20).

[Tokugennumataka]

Post memorial weekends and their multis for some films. Really, Aladdin and Maverick are a Gulf apart from others.

PotC: AWE - 3.08x
IJ&TKoTCS - 3.26x
NatM: BotS - 3.99x
SFA - 3.17x
Hangover 2 - 3.19x
MiB3 - 3.42x
F&F6 - 2.96x
XM: DoFP - 3.21x
XM: Apocalypse - 2.68x
PotC:DMTNT - 3.58x
Solo:ASWS - 3.25x
Aladdin - 4.97x
TG:M - ?? 

Assuming $75M and same multi as Aladdin gets it to $580M. Even conservative numbers are enough for $500M now. 

[Eric Prime]

 

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

And you can take a warning. Please be more respectful with your posts in the future.

 

If you made a prediction two days ago, then show it. And if you end up correct with whatever number you put your name to two days ago (assuming you posted a number at all), be proud but don't act entitled about it.

 

If you didn't, well... glass houses.

 

If you read these threads, you know I have made predictions days ago on this.  It's exploding and won't be shocked to see $75m+

 

I wasn't being disrespectful, I was saying that you can go ahead and update the $57m number now as it won't be close and all the data shows that.  

[ringedmortality]

A warning for saying a prediction was silly. Fascinating.

[EmpireCity]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

A warning for saying a prediction was silly. Fascinating.

 

Right.  The silly comment is saying that TG2 is performing so crazy that it will make a $57m prediction for the weekend look silly, it wasn't disrespect as Shawn.  

 

All of our predictions are made to look silly at some point.  That is just the nature of the box office.  

[Dragoncaine]

This is the most fun I've had tracking box office so far this year.