Top Gun Maverick Weekdays Thread | 15.8m Tue, 14.8m Wed, 14.5m Thurs, ??m Fri

[Liiviig 1998]

2 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Wtf?! That's mindblowing. Assuming 14M Thu, these look like conservative estimates now:

Fri - 21.7 (+55) 

Sat - 29.3 (+35) 

Sun - 21.7 (-26) 

72.7 (-43%). I'd consider that a reasonable baseline expectation. 

 

Fri jump should be around aladdin /apocalypse. Don't see this going below 60% jump

Thinking 13m Thursday for 70-75m weekend.

Weekend is gonna be wild.

 

[TwoMisfits]

45 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Ive already accepted that Top Gun will be a big negative factor for Dominions grosses. A pop culture phenomenon playing at the same time always ensures "normal" blockbusters to suffer. How much is now the question.

 

But i dont see Top Gun negatively affecting Lightyear. Audience seems too different for that.

 

I do in one big way - Lightyear was trying to be the "take dad to the movies for Father's Day" choice...it's lost that spot to Top Gun 2 now, at least for most families with kids 7-8 and up...

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I do in one big way - Lightyear was trying to be the "take dad to the movies for Father's Day" choice...it's lost that spot to Top Gun 2 now, at least for most families with kids 7-8 and up...

The last thing I want is to see TGM, JWD and LY cannibalizing each other when the market is far from its optimal level. 
 

if India prove that they can produce two 100m grosser, as in all time highest number 2 and number 3 in the same month of April, it is then not too much to ask NA market to perform this reasonable stunt. 

[Tokugennumataka]

2 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Can you break that down? Im having a hard time believing 70M+ plus, let alone 80M+

Not saying it could happen, but 

Thu - 14M

Fri - 24M (+71%) 

Sat - 35M (+46%) [less than 10% drop from opening Sat]

Sun - 26M (-26%) for 85M

[Krissykins]

The craziness isn’t just in the US either. Here in the UK, Top Gun’s Wednesday yesterday was only £300k less than it’s first Friday. 

[Mango]

I don’t wanna get too bullish on the weekend just yet but that is a an absolutely fantastic hold. My threshold for success is $63-65m. A sub 50% drop I think puts this on a clear course for $400m domestic 

[excel1]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't believe it. We had Alpha previews ATP near $14. There's no way overall ATP for weekend is $13.3

The premium chains obviously charge more than often includes things, curious to know how the breakdown works 

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Not saying it could happen, but 

Thu - 14M

Fri - 24M (+71%) 

Sat - 35M (+46%) [less than 10% drop from opening Sat]

Sun - 26M (-26%) for 85M

if weekday holds are strong, friday increase will be soft. It definitely wont increase like Aladdin for sure. 

[Liiviig 1998]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if weekday holds are strong, friday increase will be soft. It definitely wont increase like Aladdin for sure. 

+84 % That would take close to 90m. Thought it would be around that but it's way too optimistic.

 

Thinking 60-70% jump.

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I do in one big way - Lightyear was trying to be the "take dad to the movies for Father's Day" choice...it's lost that spot to Top Gun 2 now, at least for most families with kids 7-8 and up...

Don’t you mean ‘take dad to see Top Gun 2 AGAIN as he hasn’t been this happy since 1986’ 

 

[EmpireCity]

It's ridicuosly early, but already it is looking flat to slightly up.  

[grim22]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

The last thing I want is to see TGM, JWD and LY cannibalizing each other when the market is far from its optimal level. 
 

if India prove that they can produce two 100m grosser, as in all time highest number 2 and number 3 in the same month of April, it is then not too much to ask NA market to perform this reasonable stunt. 

 

This is not a perfect comparison whatsoever. The reason India produced 2 all-time blockbusters was because the 2 came from different industries.

 

RRR was Telugu heavy and had the multiplex support in non-Telugu industries because Bahubali had set-up goodwill for Rajamouli with audiences. Single screens turned up as well but not in the proportion thought of initially. 

 

KGF2 was Kannada heavy, Karnataka normally does not contribute as much for most movies but KGF2 being a home-grown movie was different. And it went berserk at single screens in rural areas in a big way as well. 

 

The 2 movie did big numbers by tapping into very different markets, there were overlaps for sure, but the main money did not overlap as much. India is way way too big where this is possible.

[wildphantom]

32 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It's ridicuosly early, but already it is looking flat to slightly up.  

[BruiseCruise]

https://deadline.com/2022/06/top-gun-maverick-box-office-records-1235037381/

 

$14.8m wednesday

 

Deadline saying $57m weekend

[Mango]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

It's ridicuosly early, but already it is looking flat to slightly up.  

 Holy shit

[Macleod]

This thing is selling out weeknights in my area -- already sold out IMAX for tonight in a couple locations -- happening lots of places, I assume??

Edited June 2, 2022 by Macleod

[Tokugennumataka]

Here are the Thu-to-Tue holds of few Memorial Day releases just to get an idea how insane these weekdays have been. Again, Maverick isn't even playing in the same league. 
PotC: AWE - -21.6%
IJ&TKoTCS - -30.6%
MiB3 - -27.2%
F&F6 - -37.8%
XM: DoFP - -39.5%
Tomorrowland - -37.3%
XM: Apocalypse - -45.3%
PotC:DMTNT - -49.8%
Solo:ASWS - -39.5%
Aladdin - -46.5%
TG:M - -5.7%

[lorddemaxus]

24 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://deadline.com/2022/06/top-gun-maverick-box-office-records-1235037381/

 

$14.8m wednesday

 

Deadline saying $57m weekend

I feel like if Deadline switched that 5 and 7 around, it would be a more accurate prediction.

 

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I feel like if Deadline switched that 5 and 7 around, it would be a more accurate prediction.

 

Yup. Even a mere 30% fri and sat bump takes over 62M and I highly doubt the bumps are going to be that anemic

[Flamengo81]

42 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Deadline saying $57m weekend

LMAO