Top Gun Maverick Weekdays Thread | 15.8m Tue, 14.8m Wed, 14.5m Thurs, ??m Fri

[Valonqar]

math was never Deadline's strength but they pulled that number out of their ass.

Edited June 2, 2022 by Valonqar

[Maggie]

 

[LonePirate]

Is there anyone besides Deadline that thinks TGM drops more than 50% this weekend? $63.4M or higher is that line. Disregard the fact that the previous weekend was an inflated holiday weekend which would normally add a few points to the drop this weekend. 

[MrHardapple]

The sky is the limit for TG:M!

Edited June 2, 2022 by MrHardapple

[titanic2187]

38% of the real opening weekend gross were from IMAX/PLF premium screen. This means $40m of the gross will likely drop very minimal (could be less than 20%). Assuming the remaining $67m gross from standard screen drop by half, this will add up to at least $65m 2nd weekend. 

 

This will be the most impressive 2nd weekend hold since post-pandemic era! Considering its inflated opening weekend and already huge opening number.   

[Tokugennumataka]

Best second weekend for  non-cbm, non star wars films ever:

1. Jurassic World - $106.59M

2. Beauty and the Beast - $90.43M

3. Frozen 2 - $85.98M

4. The Lion King - $76.62M

5. Avatar - $75.62M

6. The Hunger Games: CF - $74.18M

7. Finding Dory - $72.96M

8. Shrek 2 - $72.17M

9. Alice in Wonderland - $62.71M

10. PotC: DMC - $62.35M

Would be absolutely ecstatic if TGM can rank 4th. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

will TG2 be able to get back any IMAX showings before August ?

[Alex SciChannel]

7 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Is there anyone besides Deadline that thinks TGM drops more than 50% this weekend? $63.4M or higher is that line. Disregard the fact that the previous weekend was an inflated holiday weekend which would normally add a few points to the drop this weekend. 

Box Office Pro

[wildphantom]

Maverick cracking into the Top 200 all-time on Friday, and then storming close to the top 100 by the end of the weekend. 
 

The lad is on an absolute mission
 

 

[Krissykins]

15 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

will TG2 be able to get back any IMAX showings before August ?

I honestly don’t think it even matters at this point. Maybe it will though if something disappoints. 

Edited June 2, 2022 by Krissykins

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Maverick cracking into the Top 200 all-time on Friday, and then storming close to the top 100 by the end of the weekend. 
 

The lad is on an absolute mission
 

 

 

Mission: Possible - Memorial Day Record.

 

Success! Sequel in development:

 

Mission: Possible - Topping 500M DOM.

[TomeRide]

I ran a few numbers and I don't think we're realizing how big this 2nd weekend could be. These are the 1st Thursday-2nd Weekend multipliers for the major Memorial Day openers from the since 2014:

A Quite Place 2 – 4.95x

Aladdin – 6.69x

Solo – 6.68x

Pirates of the Caribbean 5 – 6.44x

X-Men Apocalypse – 6.4x

Tomorrowland - 7.86x

X-Men DoFP- 6.54x

The obvious exceptions seem to be A Quiet Place 2 and Tomorrowland, with the former more affected by Covid (as well as being a horror flick), and the latter by far the smallest of the bunch.

That leaves a pretty consistent range of 6.4x-6.7x. Basing on a flat Thursday, i.e. $14.82M, that would translate to $94.8M-$99.3M. Even just a 5x multiplier on a $14M Thursday gets it to $70M, which might be the floor for the weekend.

Edited June 2, 2022 by TomeRide

[Tokugennumataka]

6 minutes ago, TomeRide said:

I ran a few numbers and I don't think we're realizing how big this 2nd weekend could. These are the 1st Thursday-2nd Weekend multipliers for the major Memorial Day openers from the since 2014:

A Quite Place 2 – 4.95x

Aladdin – 6.69x

Solo – 6.68x

Pirates of the Caribbean 5 – 6.44x

X-Men Apocalypse – 6.4x

Tomorrowland - 7.86x

X-Men DoFP- 6.54x

The obvious exceptions seem to be A Quiet Place 2 and Tomorrwland, with the former more affected by Covid (as well as being a horror flick), and the latter by far the smallest of the bunch.

That leaves a pretty consistent range of 6.4x-6.7x. Basing on a flat Thursday, i.e. $14.82M, that would translate to $94.8M-$99.3M. Even just a 5x multiplier on a $14M Thursday gets it to $70M, which might be the floor for the weekend.

And there's Deadline with their comical 57M projection, which would be just 3.9x Thursday. 

[MrHardapple]

So $300 million + after the second weekend?!🤑

[Tokugennumataka]

12 minutes ago, MrHardapple said:

So $300 million + after the second weekend?!🤑

Too much to expect given the insane mid week performance, I guess. But if by some miracle it happens, then $600M is in play. 

[ringedmortality]

Avatar #1 and Top Gun #2 Domestic here we come

[EmpireCity]

I talked about before the release the conditions were set for an insane (but very unlikely) $200m opening 4 day weekend.  While it of course didn't get that high, the conditions are still set for an insane 2nd weekend.  I don't think $100m is possible, but $90m?  

 

Still unlikely, but crazier shit has happened.  This movie has just taken over the conversation.  

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[The Dark Alfred]

Depends on how Avatar gets ranked. If you take the calendar grosses, it only has a couple of weeks in 2022, which won't be near enough for domestic top spot. I think Black Panther 2 is going to take it, but Top Gun is on the run of the year for sure. Cruise might double his best domestic tally