Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[EmpireCity]

11 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Is this a serious comment? Genuinely asking. It’s not even noon on the east coast yet.

 

Yes.  Serious on the $30m today from the early look at things.  

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Does anyone think Top Gun: Maverick might have an outside chance of outgrossing James Cameron’s Titanic, DOM-wise? If the weekends gets better & better for Top Gun 2?

No! No! No! As much as I love top gun and saw it in theatres twice but that doesn’t mean I will give it TGM a pass to touch my precious!

[Brainbug]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

Yes.  Serious on the $30m today from the early look at things.  

 

I wonder how big the smile on Tom Cruise's face is these days.

[nguyenkhoi282]

At this pace the theme song for TGM should be changed to "Hold My Leg".

Edited June 5, 2022 by nguyenkhoi282

[Tokugennumataka]

OS dropped just 35% this week. Think 220M+ more there. Prolly 275M+ including Korea. That's 530M+ OS. Going with 570M+ Dom and boom, WW is looking like 1.1B+ easily. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[Borobudur]

Just now, nguyenkhoi282 said:

At this pace the theme song for TGM should be changes to "Hold My Leg".

And nobody should mock Tom Cruise's height anymore! That guy has long a pair of long leg! 

[Cooper Legion]

Top 10 A+ never fails

[SchumacherFTW]

Top Gun Maverick 2nd weekend is more impressive than Avatar's second weekend 

[Krissykins]

Next weekend, spring release Bad Guys will probably rank above summer films Downton Abbey 2 and Bob’s Burgers and other summer films: Men, Firestarter and this weekends two new releases will be nowhere to be seen.

 

 

[Tokugennumataka]

2 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

At this pace the theme song for TGM should be changed to "Hold My Leg".

More like 'Hold My Wing' 

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Yes.  Serious on the $30m today from the early look at things.  

Hope you’re right! Would be insane. A bit concerned the NBA Finals could cut the number a bit but NBA Finals ratings don’t seem to be as high as pre-pandemic.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Tokugennumataka said:

OS dropped just 35% this week. Think 220M+ more there. Prolly 275M+ including Korea. That's 530M+ OS. Going with 570M+ and boom, WW is looking like 1.1B+ easily. 

 

Yep. This will be the first truly surprising 1 Billion perfomance since Joker (2019). 

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Top Gun Maverick 2nd weekend is more impressive than Avatar's second weekend 

Avatar’s second weekend (and OW) should really have asterisks next to them. Not because of Christmas, but because its OW was deflated by a large-scale blizzard.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Top Gun Maverick 2nd weekend is more impressive than Avatar's second weekend 

 

I agree. Avatars OW was deflated because of the snow storm and Boxing Day was on its 2nd Sat.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Next weekend, spring release Bad Guys will probably rank above summer films Downton Abbey 2 and Bob’s Burgers and other summer films: Men, Firestarter and this weekends two new releases will be nowhere to be seen.

 

 

It's too bad that it's likely to be hit hard by Lightyear in less than two weeks because it would be fun to see how much they try and push it past $100M. I guess there's always potential double features with Minions.

[MikeQ]

A 32.1% drop into a non-holiday weekend from a $126.7M holiday-boosted opening weekend is incredible and pretty much unprecedented (certainly for the era of box office with Thursday previews). And it looks like it may fare even better with actuals.

 

When looking at all the 100M+ openers that opened on a Friday — and didn’t have a holiday-boosted second weekend — TGM is in a league of it’s own.

 

Best Second Weekend Drops for 100M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -32.1%
2. Spider-Man (2002): -37.8%
3. The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4%
4. Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3%
5. Black Panther (2018): -44.7%
6. Finding Dory (2016): -46.0%
7. Alice in Wonderland (2010): -46.0%
8. Toy Story 3 (2010): -46.2%
9. Beauty and the Beast (2017): -48.3%
10. Jurassic World (2015): -49.0%*
11. The Avengers (2012): -50.3%
12. The Batman (2022): -50.4%
13. Toy Story 4 (2019): -50.6%^
14. It (2017): -51.3%
15. The Secret Life of Pets (2016): -51.3%

*2nd weekend was not technically a holiday weekend, but it did benefit from Father’s Day

^2nd weekend wasn’t a holiday weekend for US/NA, but it was for CANADA (Canada Day weekend arguably boosted its Sunday gross)
 

If we expand this list to 60M+ openers, it still drives home how exceptional TGM is. Notice that most of the films on the list below are animated family films and/or of an earlier era of box office when Thursday previews were not as dominant or did not exist (and therefore second weekend drops naturally weren’t as hefty).

 

Best Second Weekend Drops for 60M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend:

1. Monsters Inc (2001): -27.2%
2. American Sniper (2014): -27.6%
3. The Incredibles (2004): - 28.7%
4. Zootopia (2016): -31.6%
5. Inception (2010): -32.0%
6. Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -32.1%
7. Finding Nemo (2003): -33.7%
8. Up (2009): -35.2%
9. The Passion of the Christ (2004): -36.5%
10. Spider-Man (2002): -37.8%
11. The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4%
12. Inside Out (2015) -42.1%
13. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2018): -42.3%
14. The Grinch (2018): -42.9%
15. Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3%

Peace,

Mike

[Valonqar]

@ThomasNicole Thank you! Looks like 1 billie is happening. 

 

JWD opening is great. Only 15 markets for 55M is massive. Even if previous movie(s) opened bigger. 

[M37]

11 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Thanks! Was genuinely asking and not trying to be a jerk (I know how trusted EC is on here). $30M would be amazing and I don’t want to get my hopes up too high over an AM estimate lol

@EmpireCity has gotten really good at estimating the daily TG2 number very early. If anything, his initial projections have been conservative, as actuals have been often higher 

[nguyenkhoi282]

16 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

More like 'Hold My Wing' 

"Hold My F14 Tomcat"

[MrFanaticGuy34]

4 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

OS dropped just 35% this week. Think 220M+ more there. Prolly 275M+ including Korea. That's 530M+ OS. Going with 570M+ and boom, WW is looking like 1.1B+ easily. 

If it does get there, it will be one of the few $1B+ WW grossers that isn’t a CGI-spectacle film (which is most of the $1B+ grossers), not a comic-book superhero film, not an animated film, not even a fantasy film.