Weekdays Thread (6/13-16) // 6.9m TG2, 13m JW:D Mon //

[noknobs]

1 minute ago, Jiffy said:

Well, there will be no Game 7. Bad news for the Celtics ( 😔 ) but good news for FD.

Great news for Downton Abbey.

[Mojoguy]

Time for all fathers to go to movie theaters this weekend!

 

LETS GO!

[Jonan23]

Warriors did their part to help the Sunday box office. 

[MikeQ]

If TGM is, indeed, looking at a $550+ million final gross, then we're looking at a stunning ~4.4 multiplier (or better) for the film (off of a holiday-inflated $126.7 million opening weekend).

 

I can't express how incredible that is. It would be one of the best multipliers ever for a major opener (70M+) - excluding animated family films, it would be the most impressive leggy run since Avatar, in my book.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
3. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
4. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
5. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
6. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
7. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
9. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
10. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
11. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
12. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
13. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
14. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
15. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
16. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
17. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
18. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)
19. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
20. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51)
21. Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49)
22. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)
23. Skyfall (2012) — 88.4 million (3.44)
24. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) — 155.1 million (3.43)
25. Star Trek (2009) — 75.2 million (3.43)

Peace,

Mike

[EmpireCity]

TG2 is clearing $600m.  It's locked.  

[EmpireCity]

Here is how it will play out.... 

 

TG2 will have a small drop this weekend due to great WOM and Father's Day.  Next week it will overtake JWD and be neck and neck with Lightyear.  Then another great hold comes the following weekend.  

 

It ramps up again for 4th of July week/weekend due to obvious factors.  Theaters will keep it around all through July and then the really thin August hits.  

 

I will not be shocked if this movie is playing strong until or maybe into the first week of October.  

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

TG2 is clearing $600m.  It's locked.  

 

It'll need to go about 4.5x what it makes this weekend to get there. I'm not sure if that's locked at this point. Even NWH "only" did 4.2x its 4th weekend and it had much less competition. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

TG2 is clearing $600m.  It's locked.  

not enough

[Jake Lockley]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Here is how it will play out.... 

 

TG2 will have a small drop this weekend due to great WOM and Father's Day.  Next week it will overtake JWD and be neck and neck with Lightyear.  Then another great hold comes the following weekend.  

 

It ramps up again for 4th of July week/weekend due to obvious factors.  Theaters will keep it around all through July and then the really thin August hits.  

 

I will not be shocked if this movie is playing strong until or maybe into the first week of October.  

How's Lightyear looking? I'm really rooting for that one.

[EmpireCity]

You guys are just wrong.  It's locked.  

[The Dark Alfred]

@EmpireCity is spot on. The thing is that TGM is having a run that you can't really compare to any of the recent summer blockbusters. It's having an old-school long box office run, gonna be around theaters for a while. The market is not as loaded as it was before the pandemic, in most cases new releases will flame out within a month this summer due to the short theatrical window, something that TGM don't have to worry about. Theatres will hold onto the hot ticket. It's great for repeat business and at some point it will get PLFs back and those seats will be filled again. If that Thursday hold above 6m stands, that's all time 5th biggest 3rd Thursday, ahead of Avatar and SW: TFA. If that's the kind of company it keeps having on its run, I feel great about 600m+. 

[Legion Again]

It might happen. It’s definitely not “locked.”   
 

The next few weeks should certainly be kind to it, but they don’t just need to be kind, they to be pretty insane. What happens from July 15 on barely matters, run will be nearly over.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Jake Lockley said:

How's Lightyear looking? I'm really rooting for that one.

 

What's the price of tea in China?

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Legion and Thunder said:

It might happen. It’s definitely not “locked.”   
 

The next few weeks should certainly be kind to it, but they don’t just need to be kind, they to be pretty insane. What happens from July 15 on barely matters, run will be nearly over.

 

No, it's locked.  Stone cold fucking locked.  

[Legion Again]

What does “locked” mean to you, @EmpireCity? Is it just a hyperbolic way of saying 90%? 95%? 99%? 99.99999%?  Cause I would be quite happy to bet you at 1:100 odds if you are closer to the “literally locked” side fo the spectrum than “just enjoying some flowery yet technically inaccurate language” side of the spectrum.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Ryan Reynolds]

15 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

It'll need to go about 4.5x what it makes this weekend to get there. I'm not sure if that's locked at this point. Even NWH "only" did 4.2x its 4th weekend and it had much less competition. 

i would not compare Maverick to a CMB which are are notoriously front loaded

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

i would not compare Maverick to a CMB which are are notoriously front loaded

He said "this weekend." NWH had excellent holds after it's 4th weekend. 

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

What does “locked” mean to you, @EmpireCity? Is it just a hyperbolic way of saying 90%? 95%? 99%? 99.99999%?  Cause I would be quite happy to bet you at 1:100 odds if you are closer to the “literally locked” side fo the spectrum than “just enjoying some flowery yet technically inaccurate language” side of the spectrum.

 

What do you think "locked" means?  It means it is hitting $600m domestic.  Write it down, send a carrier pigeon, tweet it, carve it in granite.  It's a stone cold fucking lock.  

 

Hope this helps.  

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

He said "this weekend." NWH had excellent holds after it's 4th weekend. 

Summer vs non summer. You can do better in summer. wonder woman from its 4th weekend did 4.79x. I think TGM has stronger WOM than Wondy for sure. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

What do you think "locked" means?  It means it is hitting $600m domestic.  Write it down, send a carrier pigeon, tweet it, carve it in granite.  It's a stone cold fucking lock.  

 

Hope this helps.  

No, it doesn’t help at all. I mean, I guess it helps reinforce your imprecise communication of probability but that’s not really what I was after.  
 

If you think it’s a stone Cold 100%, then how about I’ll give you $50 if it passes 600 and you give me $50k if it misses — EZ money for you