Weekdays Thread (6/13-16) // 6.9m TG2, 13m JW:D Mon //

[Borobudur]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Yes it has surely affected its Wednesday to a degree already.

So the Thursday drop may not be as bad as usual right?

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So the Thursday drop may not be as bad as usual right?

 

It's possible and even likely that it'll actually be a little worse than usual... Tonight is Game 6 of the NBA Finals. It's the first potential clinching game of the series. It's trendy new age dynasty (Golden State Warriors) v. arguably the most storied franchise in the history of the league (Boston Celtics). I expect that to put a dent in evening shows especially on the left coast where the game starts at 6PM PST.

 

All of which, plus the holiday Monday mean some folks in the US will taking off Friday to make it 4 day weekend, makes me expect the jumps on Friday to be extra extra nice for JWD and TGM. Might inflate LY opening Friday as well too.

 

On separate note, I assume Strange 2 crossed 400M yesterday given it was only 400K away from the milestone. I know it's not a high as anticipated but that's now two 400M+ 2022 movies. Hopefully Thor can do it as well so that we can have 3 summer blockbusters pull off the feat. I guess we can't truly count out JWD just yet but it's starting to look pretty unrealistic. Still expecting it to stabilize and have solid leg the next few weeks and end up with total definitely north of 350+. Will be interesting to see if it can edge out The Batman.

Edited June 16, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

It's possible and even likely that it'll actually be a little worse than usual... Tonight is Game 6 of the NBA Finals. It's the first potential clinching game of the series. It's trendy new age dynasty (Golden State Warriors) v. arguably the most storied franchise in the history of the league (Boston Celtics). I expect that to put a dent in evening shows especially on the left coast where the game starts at 6PM PST.

 

All of which, plus the holiday Monday mean some folks in the US will taking off Friday to make it 4 day weekend, makes me expect the jumps on Friday to be extra extra nice for JWD and TGM. Might inflate LY opening Friday as well too.

 

On separate note, I assume Strange 2 crossed 400M yesterday given it was only 400K away from the milestone. I know it's not a high as anticipated but that's now two 400M+ 2022 movies. Hopefully Thor can do it as well so that we can have 3 summer blockbusters pull off the feat. I guess we can't truly count out JWD just yet but it's starting to look pretty unrealistic. Still expecting it to stabilize and have solid leg the next few weeks and end up with total definitely north of 350+. Will be interesting to see if it can edge out The Batman.

 

I Wednesday and Thursday really are kind of deflated days because of all the reasons weve discusses here, then we could maybe see a bigger than expected Friday increase for Dominion. Although thats pure hope from my side lol

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I Wednesday and Thursday really are kind of deflated days because of all the reasons weve discusses here, then we could maybe see a bigger than expected Friday increase for Dominion. Although thats pure hope from my side lol

Honestly the weekdays so far doesn't feel like a summer weekdays for me. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

31 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Honestly the weekdays so far doesn't feel like a summer weekdays for me. 

Yeah. Kind of agree but it's tough to say that just yet though. It's JWD opening week so we're still seeing where WOM is with it. And, TGM is being judged against it's last weekdays numbers in which it still had claim to all the premium screens. The other movies that admittedly are way late in their runs seemed to be having very nice holds... Bad Guys, Everything, Strange all are seeing very nice weekday to weekday holds.

Edited June 16, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[Liiviig 1998]

2 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

9.6

8.2

13.1 (+60% || -78%) 

19.0 (+45% || -59%) 

17.1 (-10% || -56%) 

49.2 (-66%) 

 

What is your estimate for TGM?

 

[Liiviig 1998]

6.25

5.3m

8.5

12.3

11.7/32.5m(-37.2%)

 

9.6

8.2

13.1

19.6

17.6/50.3m (-65.3%)

 

Put my Thurs drop at mid teens which is a fair enough estimate but it could be worse you never know with this weekdays.

 

Father's day weekend is shaping up to be disappointing unless we get some surprising Fri/sat jumps.

[Tokugennumataka]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I refuse to believe that.

So did I. But I've already given fair percentage increases to Dominion and that's the result. Maybe a humongous Friday increase may happen across the board but I wouldn't hold my breath for that. 

[Tokugennumataka]

22 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

What is your estimate for TGM?

 

6.3

5.7

8.9

13.4

14.5 

36.8 (-28.9%) for now

[Tokugennumataka]

26 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

nvm

Edited June 16, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[Sandro Mazzola]

9.6 
8.8    
14.6  
19.7  
21.4
55.7 (-61.61%)

 

6.25

6

10

14.1

17

41 (-20.79%)

[M37]

I see weekday numbers continue to behave … oddly 

 

Lots of underlying causes, but the biggest takeaway for me is how much more sensitive moviegoing patterns have become to internal (PLF) and external factors (TV, etc). The routine has been broken to a degree, so it takes less force to change direction, impact totals 

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

I see weekday numbers continue to behave … oddly 

 

Lots of underlying causes, but the biggest takeaway for me is how much more sensitive moviegoing patterns have become to internal (PLF) and external factors (TV, etc). The routine has been broken to a degree, so it takes less force to change direction, impact totals 

 

I think in general its also because were now in sort of a transition phase between pandemic era box office and post-pandemic box office and that could explain why traditional box office patterns maybe not yet fully recovered so to speak.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I think in general its also because were now in sort of a transition phase between pandemic era box office and post-pandemic box office and that could explain why traditional box office patterns maybe not yet fully recovered so to speak.

It’s not just a matter of old patterns not applying, that pandemic has changed what used to be true, but that there is less of a pattern now at all 

 

Just this week: really strong Sat/Sun holds, weaker Monday, inflated Tue, now apparently weak Wed. Last week, the Top 10 grossed more on Wed than Mon even with Game 1 of NBA finals that night (though there was some variation for individual titles, with senior and family movies going up, adult titles flat or down). There is just a higher degree of variability now, less readily explainable, more impacted by external factors

[charlie Jatinder]

9.9

6.6

[charlie Jatinder]

Weekdays will be 83% of FK. If it follows same for rest of run, will reach $370M. 

 

[MrPink]

Whoa, 6.6m seems pretty fantastic for Top Gun 2 there.

[Alex SciChannel]

56 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

9.9

6.6

Just a little more to 10M

[Mulder]

59 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weekdays will be 83% of FK. If it follows same for rest of run, will reach $370M. 

 

Fallen Kingdom opened later when more schools were out and done, it's not an exact comparison to use imo.

[Flamengo81]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

football is niche in India, mostly limited to few states.

Yeah, but still. Kerala, West Bengal and etc... are hugely passionate about it.