Weekdays Thread (6/13-16) // 6.9m TG2, 13m JW:D Mon //

[The Dark Alfred]

8 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

It might happen. It’s definitely not “locked.”   
 

The next few weeks should certainly be kind to it, but they don’t just need to be kind, they to be pretty insane. What happens from July 15 on barely matters, run will be nearly over.

Depends on what do you regard as barely matters. It will do 25m+ easy from July 15 onwards.

[charlie Jatinder]

I agree with @EmpireCity. $600M+ is happening.

[Jake Lockley]

16 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

What's the price of tea in China?

Oh shit, I got the threads I was in mixed up. My b.

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I agree with @EmpireCity. $600M+ is happening.

 

gimme 621 

[ringedmortality]

7 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I guess it helps reinforce your imprecise communication of probability but that’s not really what I was after.  

 

Very Ivy League sentence there

[Legion Again]

Fwiw, I think it’ll probably do about 40 this wknd and be at 462 after a 67M week. That’s 138 away, but maybe effectively 128 giving it like 10M for Juneteenth and July 4 boosts? At that point 34% drops will get it to 600, so I do think it’s highly likely. Greater than 95% even. I think it’s quite likely to go past 621.    
 

But it would hardly be the craziest thing in the world if it ended up with like 595 after some upcoming competition also broke out.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Fwiw, I think it’ll probably do about 40 this wknd and be at 462 after a 67M week. That’s 138 away, but maybe effectively 128 giving it like 10M for Juneteenth and July 4 boosts? At that point 34% drops will get it to 600, so I do think it’s highly likely. Greater than 95% even. I think it’s quite likely to go past 621.    
 

But it would hardly be the craziest thing in the world if it ended up with like 595 after some upcoming competition also broke out.

if it touches 590m , Paramount will push it over some how , even re-release in December

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Very Ivy League sentence there

… thank you?

[Xavier]

8 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

This is off the top of my head, but I would guess by early next week if not sooner the TG2 daily numbers blow past JWD numbers.  

Amen, brother…

[LonePirate]

TGM needs to join the $600M club if only to loosen the grip of SW and CBM movies in that club. Other than Titanic, it might be the most surprising member of that group based on expectations before its release.

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Fwiw, I think it’ll probably do about 40 this wknd and be at 462 after a 67M week. That’s 138 away, but maybe effectively 128 giving it like 10M for Juneteenth and July 4 boosts? At that point 34% drops will get it to 600, so I do think it’s highly likely. Greater than 95% even. I think it’s quite likely to go past 621.    
 

But it would hardly be the craziest thing in the world if it ended up with like 595 after some upcoming competition also broke out.

Yea I mean I never said $600M wouldn’t happen, just that “locked” is a strong term for it. If I had to bet, I would bet on the over and probably even over $630M.

[Xavier]

8 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Tomorrow will be 9th time.

 

Ill probably finish at 12 or 13. Not enough money set aside for more lol.

Honest question: why have you seen this movie so many times? Do you genuinely like it so much?

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

Yea I mean I never said $600M wouldn’t happen, just that “locked” is a strong term for it. If I had to bet, I would bet on the over and probably even over $630M.

Yep. It’s very likely. That’s why the refusal to clarify the meaning of “locked” was so weird — if he just said “I’m being colloquial and rounding what I perceive to be like a 99.5% chance” there’d basically be nothing to talk about.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

It'll need to go about 4.5x what it makes this weekend to get there. I'm not sure if that's locked at this point. Even NWH "only" did 4.2x its 4th weekend and it had much less competition. 

Using weekends and corresponding multipliers from January vs June isn't quite an apples to apples comparison, because weekdays are lower and more business gets pushed to weekend. In its 4th week, NWH had 77% of gross on FSS, while for this week TGM is looking at roughly 66%, so its building a higher weekly total from an equivalent weekend

 

NWH's 4th week grossed $42M, and it added 3x ($127M) more from there.  If TGM grosses $60M in its 4th week (-24%), that takes it to ~$480, then it will need just 2x more from there to get to $600M, which is less than Quiet Place II from that same point last year (2.09x). In 2019, Aladdin made 2.8x more from its 4th week of $28M

 

I wouldn't say "locked", but its a very obtainable target, given the holding power we've seen thusfar

[Bigscrubnus]

I can’t imagine seeing a movie in theatres 9 times. Like holy hell, I really enjoyed dominion and I’ve only seen it once and might see it a 2nd time next weekend.

 

the most I’ve ever done during an original release window is 3 

[The Dark Rock]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$8.4m for JWD

 

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$6.1m+ for TG2

 

Much better for both JWD and TG2. Hopefully these numbers will stay and won't go down. 

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Yep. It’s very likely. That’s why the refusal to clarify the meaning of “locked” was so weird — if he just said “I’m being colloquial and rounding what I perceive to be like a 99.5% chance” there’d basically be nothing to talk about.

But he did? He believes its 100% and stated so with his "written in stone" etc comment. Its not the statistical viewpoint that you would prefer (or myself in other situations) but you are the one asking for clarification that wasnt necessary. (And knew you wouldn't get from him.) 

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Fwiw, I think it’ll probably do about 40 this wknd and be at 462 after a 67M week. That’s 138 away, but maybe effectively 128 giving it like 10M for Juneteenth and July 4 boosts? At that point 34% drops will get it to 600, so I do think it’s highly likely. Greater than 95% even. I think it’s quite likely to go past 621.    
 

But it would hardly be the craziest thing in the world if it ended up with like 595 after some upcoming competition also broke out.

I mean it is getting Sep release and 595M will need only 5M fudge. Very doable.

[narniadis]

And at this point, it would take an unforeseen situation such as a different TGM breaking out weirdly or the covid shutdowns to stop the train, based soley on the data to this point in its run. Could it happen sure, is it likely, nah. It will be nice to see a totally not normal for the bracket film cross that 600m mark. 

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, narniadis said:

But he did? He believes its 100% and stated so with his "written in stone" etc comment. Its not the statistical viewpoint that you would prefer (or myself in other situations) but you are the one asking for clarification that wasnt necessary. (And knew you wouldn't get from him.) 

It’s an objectively indefensible statistical viewpoint, that’s a bit more extreme than just “I would not prefer” so I would say clarification would be, if not necessary, at least pretty useful.  (And I hoped I would get actual clarification— I wouldn’t have bothered asking otherwise)

Edited June 17, 2022 by Legion and Thunder