WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[Webslinger]

Not a bad hold for Jurassic World: Dominion, I suppose. Being about in line with Fallen Kingdom's drop feels acceptable in light of the weak reviews and the fact that it faced more intense competition near the top.

 

Lightyear is off to an underwhelming start, no doubt. Though I will admit that I have yet to see the film, I get the sense that enough audiences were put off by the cynical nature of its existence that it didn't end up being the must-see Disney clearly thought it would be from a distance. I do also wonder how much of the underperformance might also be the lingering after-effects of shunting Luca and Turning Red off to Disney+ and - to a lesser extent - Encanto's greater level of success on the platform.

 

I think we can all agree that Top Gun: Maverick is the biggest winner of the weekend, gross and ranking be damned. A 15% drop for a film performing at this level is just jaw-dropping, and evidence that the film is connecting with audiences in a way that we haven't seen from a popcorn blockbuster in years.

[El Squibbonator]

Well, I don't know if I want to call it good news necessarily, but definitely interesting news regarding Lightyear. 

 

Apparently, it's overseas gross this weekend is 34M. Cars 3-- the Pixar movie with the domestic opening weekend most similar to Lightyear, made 21M overseas in the same amount of time. In other words, Lightyear is actually having a bigger overseas opening weekend than Cars 3! 

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, El Squibbonator said:

Well, I don't know if I want to call it good news necessarily, but definitely interesting news regarding Lightyear. 

 

Apparently, it's overseas gross this weekend is 34M. Cars 3-- the Pixar movie with the domestic opening weekend most similar to Lightyear, made 21M overseas in the same amount of time. In other words, Lightyear is actually having a bigger overseas opening weekend than Cars 3! 

How do the markets they're opening is compare tho?

[grim22]

1 minute ago, El Squibbonator said:

Well, I don't know if I want to call it good news necessarily, but definitely interesting news regarding Lightyear. 

 

Apparently, it's overseas gross this weekend is 34M. Cars 3-- the Pixar movie with the domestic opening weekend most similar to Lightyear, made 21M overseas in the same amount of time. In other words, Lightyear is actually having a bigger overseas opening weekend than Cars 3! 

 Is it in the same markets or did Cars 3 release in some places earlier or later

[Ryan Reynolds]

Paramount should prep Maverick for 3D conversion to release after Avatar 2 to get to 800m domestic

[Bigscrubnus]

>80 million worldwide

this is bomb level oh my god

[El Squibbonator]

Well, the only foreign territories we have data for Lightyear in are the UK, Argentina, and Mexico. Cars 3 opened in the UK and Argentina in July, but opened in Mexico the same weekend as it opened domestically, just like Lightyear has.

 

But here's the thing. Cars 3 made 5.8M in its Mexican opening weekend, while Lightyear made 8M in the same territory over the same period of time.  Its British and Argentine opening numbers are also ahead of their Cars 3 counterparts, though not by as much. 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Disney if you're reading this please give The Wachowskis a blank check to make whatever they want. 

Finding Neo?

[XXR vs XXR]

38 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Sure, but I think you're still underplaying inflation. pre-shutdown NATO ticket prices suggest that very low rate of inflation (~1.5%) which is part inflation part ticket composition flux but having to shut down and re-open theaters made prices much less sticky even for 2021. We don't have super strong objective data, but here's my read on the data: 

A guy on box office subreddit pulled his (same theater) ticket price changes over time and thinks was ~11.25 ATP in q1 and I basically believe it. This which would imply a 22% increase from 2019. I've pulled all EntTelligence OW price datapoints and while it's risky to compare across datasets, they go from a low of 10.87 for Father Stu's OW to 11.66 for the lost ciy and between 12.60 and 13.00 for big PLF heavy blockbusters. 

https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/sxfxgr/movie_theater_ticket_prices_over_10_years/
https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/uajer4/estimating_the_domestic_average_ticket_price_of/ 

 

Good data, though I know EntTelligence (according to Charlie at least) overestimates average prices. I also noticed at my AMC that the price I paid for MOM 2D IMAX (Thursday, 7PM) was 23% higher than the exact same showing for Endgame. 

 

Makes you wonder how impressive some recent performances really are? I'm curious if NWH actually surpassed SM1 in ticket sales (DOM). 

[TMP]

still weird they sold so much of the marketing of lightyear on it having evans as the voice, since he's not a movie star at all lol

[Jake Lockley]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Not just possible, it's going to smash it.  

What are we expecting Elvis to gross?

[PlatnumRoyce]

28 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

How do the markets they're opening is compare tho?

 

27 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 Is it in the same markets or did Cars 3 release in some places earlier or later

I can't find a full list of markets Lightyear is opening in, but deadline says its 79% of international box office, so I looked at Cars 3 and excluding the markets I know lightyear isn't releasing in this weekend. That gives me a list of 45 markets that had opening weekends of 42.8M whenever they opened (so not opening weekend).

That's obviously not perfect but it should be a ballpark estimate to compare against lightyear's 34M.

(territories I grabbed from mojo) - Bolivia, Colombia, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Paraguay, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Uruguay, Mexico, Bulgaria, Iceland, India, Romania, South Africa, Türkiye, Venezuela, Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands, Brazil, South Korea, Argentina, Chile, Hong Kong, Spain, United Kingdom, Portugal, Belgium, Philippines, Finland, Lithuania, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Norway, Malaysia, Denmark, Singapore, Sweden, Italy, Germany, Austria

Edited June 19, 2022 by PlatnumRoyce
added territories

[Juan Caballo]

1 hour ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Since when does Disney read this forum lmfao 😂 😂😂

Bruh. I was obviously joking. I know they dont lmao

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

still weird they sold so much of the marketing of lightyear on it having evans as the voice, since he's not a movie star at all lol

The studios are trying to make the superhero actors into draws outside the CBMs. It's not working so far. Evans and Hemsworth aren't getting enough box office for their non Marvel stuff, Chris Pratt only works when attached to a different franchise, most others have done a smart thing and tied themselves to direct to streaming movies and shows to prevent box office based discussion.

 

It's an attempt to bring back the 90s when people went to watch a movie because it had their favorite actor/actress instead of favorite character or brand.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

The studios are trying to make the superhero actors into draws outside the CBMs. It's not working so far. Evans and Hemsworth aren't getting enough box office for their non Marvel stuff, Chris Pratt only works when attached to a different franchise, most others have done a smart thing and tied themselves to direct to streaming movies and shows to prevent box office based discussion.

 

It's an attempt to bring back the 90s when people went to watch a movie because it had their favorite actor/actress instead of favorite character or brand.

TBF I don't think that exclusive to superhero actors. Daniel Craig outside of Bond for example wasn't really a draw. Tom Holland in Uncharted kind of is the exception to the rule.

 

[Juan Caballo]

2023 has me so hyped. 

 

2022 is like the transitional year into the greatness that 2023 will be. I hope so. 

[Taruseth]

26 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

Well, I don't know if I want to call it good news necessarily, but definitely interesting news regarding Lightyear. 

 

Apparently, it's overseas gross this weekend is 34M. Cars 3-- the Pixar movie with the domestic opening weekend most similar to Lightyear, made 21M overseas in the same amount of time. In other words, Lightyear is actually having a bigger overseas opening weekend than Cars 3! 

 

24 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

How do the markets they're opening is compare tho?

Cars 3 was spread out - UK (3.5m),Germany (2.5m), Italy (4.2m) opened in August, July and 2x September respectively. Brazil (3.1m) opened in July too. And Spain (1.8m), Sweden (1.25m), Argentina (2.1m), South Korea (1.7m), Australia (1.7m), Chile (1.0m) (July, September, July, July and June but a week later and July).

Adding just those (missing all countries opening below 1m) increases it to 44m. And with all those opening below 1m it's probably looking at 52m or so

This movie only has France (5.1m), Japan (2.8m for Cars 3) and Turkey opening later (0.8m for Cars 3) and Cars 3 had China too (opened with 10m, finished with 20m).

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The studios are trying to make the superhero actors into draws outside the CBMs. It's not working so far. Evans and Hemsworth aren't getting enough box office for their non Marvel stuff, Chris Pratt only works when attached to a different franchise, most others have done a smart thing and tied themselves to direct to streaming movies and shows to prevent box office based discussion.

 

It's an attempt to bring back the 90s when people went to watch a movie because it had their favorite actor/actress instead of favorite character or brand.

the closest thing we have to movie stars rn are just people who were big in the 90's lol (cruise, dicaprio, bullock, pitt). also doesn't help that so many of the superhero dudes just aren't very good actors, which also sets them apart from those guys.

[TomCruiseTop]

28 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Paramount should prep Maverick for 3D conversion to release after Avatar 2 to get to 800m domestic

This is actually not a bad idea. I'd love to see TGM in 3D. Those scenes in the canyon would be intense.

[CoolioD1]

Disney, since you are reading this right now, read closely. In terms of Sci-Fi adventures audiences don't want Lightyear they want a feature length Captain EO movie musical directed by Coppola starring Harry Styles.