Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

One could say Lightyear came crashing down on earth ever since the preview number signaled Houston, that, indeed, the take-off was a stumbling one.

 

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Im sorry. Im in the mood for bad jokes today

 

Guess we can give it some credit for dropping considerably softer from Sunday to Monday than JWD and, even, a tad softer than TGM from Sunday to Monday too. It need all the small victories it can get. Haha.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Interesting that JWD's holiday inflated second Monday potentially came in just above/below JWFK's non holiday second Monday (8.6M). JWFK did 11.9M the following day (7/3) then held very well due to the holiday on Wednesday (11.5M on 7/4/18). With that, expecting to JWD to lose considerable ground on JWFK the remaining weekdays. Could potentially recover this weekend to match it's third weekend (28.6M) but personally expecting it to come about a 1M or 2M under that weekend for it's third weekend.

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

We shall see TGM overtaking JWD sometime soon in dailies. That $8m Monday is good for the second biggest 4th Monday ever behind Avengers (Memorial Day). Need $5.3m Tuesday for the biggest 4th Tuesday ever, Incredibles 2 currently on top.

Needs 8.026m to be above Chronicles of Narnia.

 

Crazy that Incredibles 2 has the current biggest 4th Tuesday with $5.309m.

#2 Black Panther: 5.168m

#3 Avatar: 5.067m

#4 Toy Story 4: 4.957m (the time of crazy Tuesday jumps)

#5 Ocean's Eleven: 4.848m (New Year's Day)

#6 Jurassic World: 4.839m

#7 Frozen: 4.782m (Christmas Eve)

#8 The Lion King: 4.068m (2019 version)

#9 Wonder Woman: 3.905m

#10 Aladdin: 3.875m

(TFA would be next with 3.844m)

 

For Wednesday it would be:

#1 Frozen: 6.354m (Christmas Day)*

#2 Avatar: 4.744m

#3 Black Panther: 3.843m

#4 Jurassic World: 3.756m

#5 Knives Out: 3.650m (Christmas Day)*

#6 Incredibles 2: 3.616m

#7 Toy Story 4: 3.444m

#8 SW VII: TFA: 3.115m

#9 The Dark King: 3.003m

#10 Toy Story 3: 2.988m

(#11 SW I: TPM: 2.969m)

 

And for Thursdays:

#1 Frozen: 9.108m (Boxing Day)*

#2 Avatar: 4.699m

#3 Black Panther: 3.632m

#4 Toy Story 2: 3.458m (23rd December)*

#5 Incredibles 2: 3.362m

#6 Jurassic World: 3.251m

#7 Zootopia: 3.201m

#8 Knives Out: 3.189m (Boxing Day)

#9: SW I: TPM: 3.183m

#10: SW VII: TFA: 3.130m

(#11: Finding Nemo: 3.084m; #12: Toy Story 4: 3.072m)

 

*I am ignoring limited releases and a Wednesday opener has its fifth Wednesday counted as its fourth - OD Wednesday is Wednesday number 0. So the count starts with the first Friday in wide release all days before that get ignored

 

Frozen's Christmas holiday weekdays were insane. The next set are 7.898m, 7.076m, 8.719m and 5.305m

 

 

Looking up those list makes it even clearer how much of a flop Lightyear is.

[grim22]

 

 

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

The tell tale sign box office is back to normalcy is Jeff Bock is back to dick riding Disney instead of saying streaming is the future.

[ringedmortality]

What I don't understand about Bock is why doesn't he use his own twitter account instead of doing all of this through the official account of his company.

[YM!]

I will say this with Top Gun overperforming beyond wildest dreams has me thinking a lot of studios over the next year, switching to a case dependent situation on windows but likely with 60+ days being the minimum. Look at Universal for instant, if a film flops like Ambulance or Northman 45 days is fair, but for their breakouts like The Bad Guys which is getting 70 days. Tentpoles likely won’t be on their until after 4 months either if what’s being said about Dominion and Minions 2 are true. Best way to maximum grosses.

 

However, I don’t see Disney adapting to this model until after Chapek is gone which I honestly wouldn’t expect until like 2024 at the earliest. Hopefully sooner but I doubt it.

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Tentpoles likely won’t be on their until after 4 months either if what’s being said about Dominion and Minions 2 are true

 

I thought Dominion was gonna be on VOD or Peacock by like July

[Alex SciChannel]

Box Office Mojo has updated the weekend estimate for Dominion to be $59.01M for a -59.3% from previous weekend. Domestic totals haven't been updated yet but I suspect $250.15M

 

Jun 10-12	1	$145,075,625	-	4,676	-	$31,025	$145,075,625	1
Jun 17-19	1	$59,010,000	-59.3%	4,697	+21	$12,563

Edited June 21, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[CoolioD1]

58 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

reminds me of some people here...

[JohnnyGossamer]

47 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I thought Dominion was gonna be on VOD or Peacock by like July

Yeah... I'd need to see a source because I imagine there won't much more than a 45 to, maybe, 60 at most before each is available via Peacock. So, I'd think JWD by late July and Minions by late August there. I thought that's what they'd been doing with theatrical stuff before JWD and Minions.

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yeah... I'd need to see a source because I imagine there won't much more than a 45 to, maybe, 60 at most before each is available via Peacock. So, I'd think JWD by late July and Minions by late August there. I thought that's what they'd been doing with theatrical stuff before JWD and Minions.

I thought Universal mentioned earlier (was it during CinemaCon) that JWD and Minion will have different arrangement from other Universal distributed film?

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yeah... I'd need to see a source because I imagine there won't much more than a 45 to, maybe, 60 at most before each is available via Peacock. So, I'd think JWD by late July and Minions by late August there. I thought that's what they'd been doing with theatrical stuff before JWD and Minions.

“Universal’s new model will begin with its 2022 slate, which includes Jennifer Lopez’s musical comedy “Marry Me,” the globe-trotting espionage thriller “The 355,” the George Clooney-Julia Roberts romantic comedy “Ticket to Paradise,” Blumhouse’s horror film “The Black Phone” and “Downton Abbey: A New Era.” Major tentpoles, such as “Jurassic World: Dominion,” “Minions: The Rise of Gru” and Christopher Nolan’s war epic “Oppenheimer,” are not expected to fall in the 45-day plan.” 

 

This was reported in the variety piece. Thinking Minions gets the same 70 day window as The Bad Guys being available in September, and Dominion get a little bit more.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Republicans complaining about the lack of Tim Allen in Lightyear as some political agenda is even more hilarious knowing Disney is working with him currently on another Santa Clause project. So much for the "woke mob"!

[Felandria]

I saw one site, can’t remember which, had an updated 4 day top 3 and they were estimating a $4m Monday for Maverick.

[Jiffy]

22 minutes ago, Felandria said:

I saw one site, can’t remember which, had an updated 4 day top 3 and they were estimating a $4m Monday for Maverick.

Can't imagine things would be that off.

[Bigscrubnus]

Anyone else notice that there are a bunch of articles claiming that lightyear is doing great? It’s really weird to me.

[EmpireCity]

31 minutes ago, Felandria said:

I saw one site, can’t remember which, had an updated 4 day top 3 and they were estimating a $4m Monday for Maverick.

 

You need to immediately stop reading that site.  

[Ryan Reynolds]

32 minutes ago, Felandria said:

I saw one site, can’t remember which, had an updated 4 day top 3 and they were estimating a $4m Monday for Maverick.

that's Deadline it had 44m 3-day /48m 4-day , not an update, and i don't think studios ever gave estimates for Monday

[EmpireCity]

It's $8m for Monday or right near that.  Not even close to $4m.