Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[charlie Jatinder]

And not to forget, you were coming off people spending hugely with Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo in May.

 

Its just some sort of weird copium. The film is doing worse than FK. Probably less than a divisive CBM did after its weekend. 

 

All this because an outdated audience metric gave A- due to sampling error when every other metric is worse than FK.

 

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

And not to forget, you were coming off people spending hugely with Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo in May.

 

Its just some sort of weird copium. The film is doing worse than FK. Probably less than a divisive CBM did after its weekend. 

 

All this because an outdated audience metric gave A- due to sampling error when every other metric is worse than FK.

 

If anything it's you guys who keep insisting its having bad WOM when its clear its WOM is like...fine. Its not having awful drops, its just having fine ones. Like I've said fucking multiple times, I don't like Dominion at all. Its just annoying how people on here go by their own personal opinions on films and not the objective facts we have here.

[Cooper Legion]

The whole problem is you're trying to act like it's just the facts while making claims that are contrary to the facts. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Cooper Legion]

I know we were asked to drop the jed wom stuff -- to be clear the most recent discussion was a new topic, JWD competition, not reopening of JWD wom. But I bet the mods would prefer if we knocked off the completion talk as well since it's clearly not getting through.

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

The whole problem is you're trying to act like it's just the facts while making claims that are contrary to the facts. 

So besides citing Comtrak and RT (Which are not the end all be all with WOM) what is your evidence that it is having bad WOM? I asked this earlier, you don't have any.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

So besides citing Comtrak and RT (Which are not the end all be all with WOM) what is your evidence that it is having bad WOM? I asked this earlier, you don't have any.

 

Every effing audience metric across the world.

Edited June 26, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[setna]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

TGM will be at $522m or so after Sunday.  It will be at $540m going into next weekend.  I would guess it is at least $570m by the end of 4th of July and about $580 going into Thor weekend.  

 

Should pass $600m by July 10th or so.  

 

I am pretty confident it has a really good shot at $700m+.  It will absolutely be on screen and putting up solid numbers going into mid-September.  

 

What kind of drops do you expect for getting a chance of 700 M?  I see it nearly impossible....

Edited June 26, 2022 by setna

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Every effing audience metric across the world.

Which also mainly showed FK with bad WOM and that obviously didn't happen either. 

[Mojoguy]

FK had two spectacular action scenes the island escape and mansion climax that helped with its legs, JWD was so unremarkable.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$12m TG2

$10.7m JWD

$10m Elvis

$7.2m BP

$7m LY

 

Hope Elvis goes up from that. Doesn’t look great being beaten by two holdovers. Top Gun deserves every penny, but it’ll start getting embarrassing for the other studios if it keeps on beating the new releases lol 
 

4 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

Even though Black Phone's performance is solid, it does seem like horror isn't as strong as it used to be 

From 2016 and forward, it seemed like everything broke out (except for a few). 

 

Now, It seems like everything underperforms (except for a few)

Jason Blum made a good point. The future of original horror IP is uncertain. 

 

Horror has had a terrible 2022, one of, if not maybe the worst year it has ever had. Scream and The Black Phone are the only ones to open over $5m. 
 

2021 was great for it, even during the outbreak spikes of the pandemic. Scream was out at the height of Omicron. The big studios have pretty much avoided horror this year for some reason, but the other 8 that have opened wide, have flopped. 
 

Hopefully Nope, Salem’s Lot, Halloween Ends and Smile will do big numbers. I think Beast and Barbarian could surprise in August/September. There’s a critic saying Barbarian is the best studio horror film since Get Out and the trailer was attached to Black Phone, so it could break out. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Krissykins

[CJohn]

JWD is having shit legs. 400M should still happen given it opened with about the same as FK and it has less competition.

[vale9001]

The academy hates attractive and pretty (young) men like Austin Butler 🙂. The Di Caprio - Newman- Pitt - Redford won when they were mature or old.

 

Tom cruise or Matt Damon or Ryan Gosling hasn't an oscar with top quality career while I won't make the names of all these 30s sexy actress with no career and an Oscar on the closet.

 

Anyway Elvis is really Oscar stuff. If it makes over 100M it can take a BP nominee. Metacritic doesn't count anything for the Oscar. It matters only for that kind of festival movie who needs to be labeled as the "critics favourite" of the season to get the awards buzz (something like call me by your name, drive my car or Soud of metal).

 

For Oscar bait movies what you need is box office results and people loving it. Then a 48 on metacritic (Bohemian) or 63 (Elvis) doesn't change anything. 

 

And i think a 100M plus for a drama biografical movie in post pandemic era would be already great in terms of box office success. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by vale9001

[SchumacherFTW]

32 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Hope Elvis goes up from that. Doesn’t look great being beaten by two holdovers. Top Gun deserves every penny, but it’ll start getting embarrassing for the other studios if it keeps on beating the new releases lol 
 

Horror has had a terrible 2022, one of, if not maybe the worst year it has ever had. Scream and The Black Phone are the only ones to open over $5m. 
 

2021 was great for it, even during the outbreak spikes of the pandemic. Scream was out at the height of Omicron. The big studios have pretty much avoided horror this year for some reason, but the other 8 that have opened wide, have flopped. 
 

Hopefully Nope, Salem’s Lot, Halloween Ends and Smile will do big numbers. I think Beast and Barbarian could surprise in August/September. There’s a critic saying Barbarian is the best studio horror film since Get Out and the trailer was attached to Black Phone, so it could break out. 

I am alllllllllll about Beast! That looks exactly like my kind of shit! 

[Jonwo]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I 100% agree.  There is zero to cut into its grosses or take it off screen.  I also think DC Super Pets overperforms as well.  

 

Super Pets I think will do $30-40m OW. 

 

It's going to close between Elvis and TGM, it's could be down to $100,000 between them. 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

18 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I am alllllllllll about Beast! That looks exactly like my kind of shit! 

Yes! Me too. I think it could actually do quite well. Maybe a decent “Crawl” type of run: $30-40m. 

Had a look at the August schedule. I don’t know if “Fear” or “Samaritan” are evening happening, neither have even a teaser poster. “The Invitation” doesn’t either, but it just got re-titled from “The Bride”.
 

[european1992]

JWD actually has excellent legs given how shitty the movie is. The next Jurassic will be breaking records. People are here for it, this was just not it.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

51 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Horror has had a terrible 2022, one of, if not maybe the worst year it has ever had. Scream and The Black Phone are the only ones to open over $5m. 
 

2021 was great for it, even during the outbreak spikes of the pandemic. Scream was out at the height of Omicron. The big studios have pretty much avoided horror this year for some reason, but the other 8 that have opened wide, have flopped. 
 

Hopefully Nope, Salem’s Lot, Halloween Ends and Smile will do big numbers. I think Beast and Barbarian could surprise in August/September. There’s a critic saying Barbarian is the best studio horror film since Get Out and the trailer was attached to Black Phone, so it could break out. 

 

It's a shame because at least 2 of the horror films from this year that opened wide: Northman (yes, I consider it horror) and Men are absolutely fantastic films IMO. But certainly didn't do anything at the box office. And to be expected given their starting points in terms of premise and style are indeed rather niche.

 

I think Halloween Ends is part of the problem so I feel torn about it.

 

Nope, Beast, Barbarian and the Menu (I'm probably being optimistic with that last one) would be great options to break out. I haven't seen any trailers or info about Smile or Barbarian yet but I'd be very optimistic on what I've seen from Nope and Beast. And while I haven't seen any Salem's Lot stuff either and have little interest myself, the name King alongside a known property of his usually does okay and we're a bit starved of vampires recently.  

[wildphantom]

Some sleepless nights potentially on the horizon for @Brainbug the Dinosaur

Maverick is coming for Jurassic World….

 

 

 

[Jonwo]

In regards to Super Pets, I think the fact August and September are so empty will help it a lot. Might be WB and WAG's highest grossing non Lego film.

 

Speaking of WAG, they currently don't have a film for 2023 as Coyote vs ACME got undated but I wonder if they might push up Toto to say late September or early October?

 

 

[Brainbug]

36 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Some sleepless nights potentially on the horizon for @Brainbug the Dinosaur

Maverick is coming for Jurassic World….

 

 

 

 

The thing is, im ready to accept it. Because Top Gun Maverick is an actual Masterpiece, so i dont mind it should it outgross JW DOM. Also, what gives me a bit more happiness is that Top Gun has 0 chance to outgross JW Worldwide.

 

And i dont want to add to the Dominion WOM discussion. I dont think any side here will convince the other, so it would be going in circles.