Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[WrathOfHan]

The Thor fudge for Lightyear will be crazy after two 50-60%+ drops in a row

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

My general opinion is that the sales numbers at the bottom of the U-curve can be kinda fluky

Well, certainly agree with that. I think it’s a very interesting time series prediction question that I may take more of a thorough/rigorous/sophisticated stab at if I ever find the free time.   
 

Looking just at Sacramento, a non pace based method I like to do for quick and dirty is to observes that right now Thor is pretty much halfway in between Batman and DS2 (8/5 and 5/8 respectively). So if it just adds the geomean of what they added, that gets to about 15.7k finish. If it’s final/d-12 multiple is the geomean of theirs, that would be 2,3x for 16k finish.   
 

Personal commentary is that DS2 was depressed in the final few days by mixed reviews and there’s good reason to think L&T can avoid this issue, so maybe 17-18k (30-31.5). But a more conservative approach would be 15.5-16 (27-28). Very tough to justify just the less than 7k additional sales to get to ~25 final comp.

[Issac Newton]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK
$30.50M Weekend (Est.)
3,948 Screens / $7,725 Avg.
Weekend 5 / -32% Change
$521.72M Total (North America)#TopGun #Maverick #TopGunMaverick #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) June 26, 2022

[CaptNathanBrittles]

If you told me after TFA was released that TOP GUN 2 was going to outgross EPISODE IX I'd have called you nuts!

[Krissykins]

Horrific for Lightyear

Good for BORReport calling out the goons. 

 

Decent worldwide total for The Black Phone. Shame about that UK number, which is a 6 day opening. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Krissykins

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

If you told me after TFA was released that TOP GUN 2 was going to outgross EPISODE IX I'd have called you nuts!

Same here. TG2 could have gone the Independence Day 2 (Will Smith being absent + atricious reviews),  The Matrix Resurrections (HBO Max Same-day, releasing idiotically right after NWH), Blade Runner 2049 (stricter rating and almost 3-hour runtime) route in terms of box office. Instead, its fantastic reviews, marketing, WOM helped its epic run.

[Issac Newton]

 

Please note that with regard to Lightyear and in general, phobic replies to any of our tweets will lead to instantly being blocked.

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) June 26, 2022

Edited June 26, 2022 by Issac Newton

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Eh I think Strange World will do whatever Raya was going to do without a Pandemic.

 

Whatever that means.

 

Maybe $120 dom.

A number that probably won't make Disney happy given the budgets of their (and Pixar's) movies ($150-200M each on average). Illumination and DreamWorks are lucky that they're relatively cheap in comparison (and are likely to see profits from Minions/Puss in Boots even if they underperform).

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

If you told me after TFA was released that TOP GUN 2 was going to outgross EPISODE IX I'd have called you nuts!

Outcrossing IX is weaksauce, outgrossing VIII and IX is the fun bit

Edited June 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[YM!]

40 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think people are now acting like Lightyear was always gonna bomb.

 

I think when project was announced, it did felt big. The first trailer was interesting but whatever followed later couldn't get the film buzz.

 

On top of that film turned out average which killed any chances it had left.

Again Detective Pikachu is like the perfect comparison to it, especially with the more adult skew.

[Agafin]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

It was only a few weeks ago when people were laughing at $600m being a lock, and now it will be there around July 10th.  

 

Let's see how it plays out with regards to $700m.  

 

Just because the movie will make $600m doesn't mean it was a lock to reach there. I don't know when you predicted $600m to be a lock but if it was before the second weekend, then you were wrong.

[Issac Newton]

THE BOB'S BURGERS MOVIE
$513K Weekend (Est.)
590 Screens / $869 Avg.
Weekend 5 / -56% Change
$31.04M Total (North America)#BobsBurgers #BobsBurgersMovie #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) June 26, 2022

[Hilpkioy]

Minions looks promising based on its debut in Australia at 3.73m compared to 4.55m for the original Minions and 4.5m for Despicable Me 3. Anglosphere countries tend to perform similarly for these types of movies so it could be around 70-80% of what the first movie opened to domestically as well.

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[Issac Newton]

ELVIS
$30.5M Domestic Opening Weekend (Est.)
3,906 Screens / $7,808 Avg.#Elvis #ElvisMovie #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) June 26, 2022

[Juan Caballo]

Likely Hot Take - Elemental will be a box office success. A moderate comeback for Pixar

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

Neck and Neck!

[Krissykins]

Oooh whats #1 then? 
 

Elvis almost identical to Scream: $3.5m previews $30m opening. Although Elvis had early fan screenings too.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Krissykins

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Outcrossing IX is weaksauce, outgrossing VIII and IX is the fun bit

When TFA released I think common sense would be to assume IX > VIII seeing historic trend and inflation.