Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[EmeraldWitch]

It's pity that Lightyear flopped. It's one of a few Pixar movies that I really enjoyed. I've always hated Pixar and their way of making animated movies. Trying to appeal to both kids and adults and end up being half assed. Their humour is lame and their character design is silly/ugly and kid-bait obvious compared to Dreamworks/Disney/Blue Sky's Ice Age series. They're trying to hard to be deep and profound with every damn movies, sending some meaningfull messages that's is too hard for elementary kids to understand but too shallow for even teenagers. 

 

That's said, Rango >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[Valonqar]

28 minutes ago, M37 said:

Every 8-10plex will be playing at least the top 5-8 movies into August. After Thor, the releases are mostly 1 screen allocations at those size locations, other than Nope (depending on market) and maybe bullet train. So TGM going to stay above 2500/3000 locations for a while 

 

Nice! Thank you! 

 

 

[GipJo]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The book was extremely popular sitting on the NYT best sellers list for a few years, and adaptations of mystery/thriller novels like that usually appeal most to older white women (Gone Girl's opening weekend audience was 60% female/75% over 25/67% Caucasian while The Girl on the Train's was 68% female/55% over 35/67% Caucasian). I would expect a similar audience breakdown here despite the marketing's attempts at appealing to a younger demographic via the heavy emphasis on the Taylor Swift song.

I find this comparison weird. Gone Girl and TGOTT star acclaimed middle aged female leads and are stories about marriage, something more relatable to older famale audience. WTCS stars a very young female lead and it's a story about young (20-ish) love. I just don't think their demographic are similar.

[vale9001]

The biggest question for Elvis is how much Hbo Max will impact it because if The lost City made also a 30.5 M debut and 108 M total I think Elvis with the better summer weekdays shouldn't have problems to make a 120M final. 

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't think DS2 and Thor are equal. As you noted in your previous post DS2 has more fan hype, hence more pressure to see it immediately, and also had mixed WoM which hurts the weekend multi a bit. 

True, but summer Saturdays are still weak for some reason: nothing better than +13% from TFri so far (though Sundays are holding better as a result).  Probably the best Thor can hope for is something like a 1.6x (+60%) Th/Fri (same as TGM and Batman, both of which had EA), +12-13% Sat, and a 15-20% drop for Sun.  That still only gets you to 5.7-5.8x. And more likely its closer to a 1.5x (+50%) Th/Fri, if not a bit below

 

My range is 5.3-5.8x, unless somehow Thor breaks through the patterns we've seen and pushes up closer to a 6x, but that's really the upper limit IMO

[PenguinHyphy]

Elvis is pretty front loaded for the type of project that it is 

[vale9001]

Where the crawdads sing (the novel) is not Gone Girl or The girl on the train. The love story at the center of the story is really a la Nicholas Sparks, so they should appeal young women too.

The problem is the trailer is too clean and seem like an hallmark tv movie. So for young women could seem some of these romantic thriller they can catch on Netflix, the older audience should be more attracted to go to see it on a theater. The Taylor Swift original song was a good move but in some way probably it pumped the first trailer more than its real value cause her millions fans watched the trailer just to hear a song for the first time while they don't give a f.. about the movie. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by vale9001

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, GipJo said:

I find this comparison weird. Gone Girl and TGOTT star acclaimed middle aged female leads and are stories about marriage, something more relatable to older famale audience. WTCS stars a very young female lead and it's a story about young (20-ish) love. I just don't think their demographic are similar.

Where did you get that impression (at least beyond the sight of a potential love triangle)? The plot clearly revolves around the Daisy Edgar-Jones character being torn between two men and finding herself accused of murder after one of the guys ends up dead. I got a trailer before Lightyear last weekend that was just Reese Witherspoon (a producer on the movie) and Daisy talking about everything but the plot of the movie (a trailer that was obviously designed for the moms seeing the movie to let them know it was coming out soon while also covering the ears of the youngsters in attendance from the fact the movie is about a murder).

Edited June 26, 2022 by filmlover

[Blankments]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

Except a shitty Pixar movie that didn't bring back Tim Allen. I'm sure Disney is going to be okay. They're probably still counting all their money from endgame.

as probably the biggest pixar loonie on the forum (who also didn't like Lightyear), the tim allen talking about on Lightyear is so bizarre. Tim Allen was recast in 2000 as the REAL Buzz Lightyear fanboys would KNOW

 

 

where's the complaining about patrick warburton being the original man, not the toy smh

[BruiseCruise]

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1541096916380921857?s=20&t=7Ay_qKJwtC-bE1_ryWt9LQ

[PenguinHyphy]

65% drop for a movie that many on here put as one of the most anticipated of the year? Yeah sure, it is only seeing such a unprecedented decline because of people not wanting to see Buzz Lightyear 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

True, but summer Saturdays are still weak for some reason: nothing better than +13% from TFri so far (though Sundays are holding better as a result).  Probably the best Thor can hope for is something like a 1.6x (+60%) Th/Fri (same as TGM and Batman, both of which had EA), +12-13% Sat, and a 15-20% drop for Sun.  That still only gets you to 5.7-5.8x. And more likely its closer to a 1.5x (+50%) Th/Fri, if not a bit below

 

My range is 5.3-5.8x, unless somehow Thor breaks through the patterns we've seen and pushes up closer to a 6x, but that's really the upper limit IMO

I have had it around 5.7x, so closer to the higher end of your range. 

[M37]

1 minute ago, PenguinHyphy said:

65% drop for a movie that many on here put as one of the most anticipated of the year? Yeah sure, it is only seeing such a unprecedented decline because of people not wanting to see Buzz Lightyear 

*not wanting to pay to see a mediocre Buzz Lightyear movie in theaters when they know they can watch it for free in a short time at home.

 

Its really not any more complicated than that, as much as people are trying to shoehorn their own agenda onto these results

[BruiseCruise]

3 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

65% drop for a movie that many on here put as one of the most anticipated of the year? Yeah sure, it is only seeing such a unprecedented decline because of people not wanting to see Buzz Lightyear 

Your argument would hold weight if it wasn't flopping literally everywhere, red, blue, america, asia, europe

[Ryan Reynolds]

Maverick still on track for 625-650m ?

[Thena]

I need Elvis wins this weekend. Tired of seeing Cruise winning.

[BruiseCruise]

If TGM has the same 5th weekend to finish multiplier as Aladin, it should finish with ~$662m

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Maverick still on track for 625-650m ?

I mean currently the discussion is whether it can hit $700m or simply have to "settle" for mid $600m

[ThomasNicole]

Elvis probably finishing with 200-250M global 

 

Good result for 85M budget and older audience focus.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Thena said:

I need Elvis wins this weekend. Tired of seeing Cruise winning.

 

Oh boy then its gonna be a looooooong summer for you.