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charlie Jatinder

11-14 Weekday Thread | Featuring Future BOFFY Award Winning Meltdown of Our Fallen False God

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by charlie Jatinder,

Thor 13.5 Minions 8.2 TGM 2.45

What we should actually focus on

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Juby Box Office Gold

Juby

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35 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I'd say 90% chance TGM is hitting 700m. There is zero competition this summer from now on, gonna stay in theatres for a while. It really need to reach 675-680m by the end of September and the re-release will push it over 700m. If it's not getting award buzz and Paramount is not re-rerelasing it, then yes that 10% negativity prevails. I just can't see Paramount missing the boat. For the record beating Titanic and IW is big enough of a cake anyway, 700m would be just the icing.

 

I'd say 0.9% chance TGM is hitting $700m. There's no word about any re-release, re-issue, or even expansion for Labor Day weekend so far. Probability of hitting $700m based on current numbers and film's condition so far is smaller than finishing under Titanic's $659.4m.

 

Even hitting $675-680m by the end of September (it won't happen Imho) will means the re-release will have to gross more than $20 million... for a 2022 film... available on Blu-ray/ UHD/ DVD/ streaming, etc. That's just impossible. Even Endgame (+$800m monster hit) due to #BringBackEvent added like $14-16 million to its potential final gross, and it was still fresh film, without home releases and before D+. Maybe some Extended Edition in 10 years from now can pull of +$20 million from theaters, not the very same film released again this, or the next year.

 

With average 33% weekly drops from now on, TGM will be at around $651 million before LD weekend. Without any expansion, it might finish under Jurassic World ($653.4m).

 

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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15 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Tracking must simply be awful for the film as I was expecting OW to be in that range, if not a little higher.

I don't know anything about tracking I haven't followed tracking post covid for anything. If you say tracking says it's going to open this high then I will leave you because like I said I haven't looked into it at all. I just think there is enough people that hated Us that will not want to come out and give this film a chance and you can count me as one of them.

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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Just now, baumer said:

I don't know anything about tracking I haven't followed tracking post covid for anything. If you say tracking says it's going to open this high then I will leave you because like I said I haven't looked into it at all. I just think there is enough people that hated Us that will not want to come out and give this film a chance and you can count me as one of them.


I don’t know anything about tracking post Covid for anything. If you say tracking says it’s going to open this low then I will leave you because like I said I haven’t looked into it at all. I just think there are enough people that loved Get Out and Us, and other original horror movies that will want to come out and give this film a chance. You can count me as one of them.

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Juby Box Office Gold

Juby

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor 8.1

M2 5.25

TGM 1.95

 

= $24.05 million 7th week for TGM (-44.6% LW). With average 28.7% drops next few weeks, it should add: $17.14m next week + $12.22m + $8.7m + $6.2m + $4.42m +$3.15m + $2.25m = $660 million on Thursday Septemeber 1st. Than, even with big expansion and empty month it should add no more than $12.5m. So, $672.5 million final it is.

 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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16 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not look it up...okay, let me give it a go.

 

Black Widow 23%

Shang-Chi 19%

Strange MOM 15%

GOTG 2 12%

Eternals 12% (this one's hard b/c it was so low an open, it could just as likely be the top as the bottom b/c it could have drawn the same hardcore parents either way)

 

How'd I do?:)  This is tough for the recent b/c kids 5-12 didn't get vaccinated til after summer, so it could also be parents held them home til they were vaxxed, leading all the summer 2021 ones to be kid-lite...but I still gotta think Black Widow is so little girl friendly, she might have beaten that issue:)...

Was hoping more people would give it a go, but alas ... not too bad. Disney reported family audience:

 

GOTG 2 19%

Black Widow 23%

Shang-Chi 12%

Eternals 15%

Strange MOM 12%

 

You got BW, which is one I wouldn't have guessed was high given the D+ and PA factors at that time. Not too much of a surprise that GOTG was more family friendly, but was (at least to me) that both Shang-Chi and Strange were not, below even Eternals. SC had good legs, Eternals and MoM not so much. BW had the worst legs of the group despite the highest family audience ... but also the only summer release which probably skews that figure, and Ant-Man & Wasp was 30%, which makes Thor's 14% look pretty awful in comparison

 

The tl;dr - the % of families reported by Disney isn't a great predictor of legs. IMO, the teen audience is probably the more relevant figure, as that can mean a lot of repeat viewings, especially in the absence of competition, as it did with both Venom 2 and NWH, and probably SC as well

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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15 minutes ago, The Panda said:


I don’t know anything about tracking post Covid for anything. If you say tracking says it’s going to open this low then I will leave you because like I said I haven’t looked into it at all. I just think there are enough people that loved Get Out and Us, and other original horror movies that will want to come out and give this film a chance. You can count me as one of them.

 

Awesome post 👌

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Juby said:

 

Let's take a look at TGM run from different point of view.

 

Average week drop for TGM will be around 28.7% after this Thursday (this includes inflated Memmorial Day, Father's Day and 4th of July weekends + lack of any competition for first two weeks). After the last week (it will be over $24 million after ~$2m Thursday), with this pace, TGM will add around $54.2m till September 1st. So it might be at $660.2 million before Labor Day weekend (if it keep this pace ofc, which will be extremely hard to achieve). Do You seriously believe it will add another $40 million after that? This movie will be in cinemas 14 weeks by then. Avatar after its 14 week in release added $11.4 million. Jurassic World added around $12.3 million after massive expansion in the last 2 weeks of the summer (+997 theaters) and release date in mid June (not in May as TGM was).

 

I know this year's September and October are basically empty, and I know TGM is the most unpredictable b.o. run of the year, and that's the only reasons why I don't call beating Infinity War ($678.8m) a dead case. But for now, $672.5 million for Maverick is the absolute maximum I see.

 

I think its better to just focus on the Saturday drops, removing most if not all of the noise from holidays and such. Here's how those look by week

 

2) -5.3%

3) -44.1% (vs JWD, lost all PLFs)

4) -21.2%

5) -23.9%

6) -19.0%

7) -35.3% (vs Thor)

 

So outside of the incredible second weekend hold, and against the two $145M openings, TGM has been dropping about 21% from Sat to Sat - to me, that's its base/natural rate of decline.  Given how the calendar is weak the rest of summer, that should be the starting point for projecting forward. If it were to hold that -21% average weekly (with some fluctuations), then $700M is attainable

 

We should know better after this weekend: if the decline is more than 25%, the $700M milsetone is probably out of reach, but should still be on a good path for high $600s, like $680M or so

Edited by M37
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, M37 said:

Was hoping more people would give it a go, but alas ... not too bad. Disney reported family audience:

 

GOTG 2 19%

Black Widow 23%

Shang-Chi 12%

Eternals 15%

Strange MOM 12%

 

You got BW, which is one I wouldn't have guessed was high given the D+ and PA factors at that time. Not too much of a surprise that GOTG was more family friendly, but was (at least to me) that both Shang-Chi and Strange were not, below even Eternals. SC had good legs, Eternals and MoM not so much. BW had the worst legs of the group despite the highest family audience ... but also the only summer release which probably skews that figure, and Ant-Man & Wasp was 30%, which makes Thor's 14% look pretty awful in comparison

 

The tl;dr - the % of families reported by Disney isn't a great predictor of legs. IMO, the teen audience is probably the more relevant figure, as that can mean a lot of repeat viewings, especially in the absence of competition, as it did with both Venom 2 and NWH, and probably SC as well

 

Not quite TL/DR - Black Widow is a huge little girl draw and suffered highly from the D+ release and the state of Covid.  None of the other 4 are huge "kid-drawing" properties.  

 

Other known huge kid draws are Spidey and Iron Man.    

 

And the overall Avengers team.

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Is that actually a thing? Is this a Minions trend?

 

Thorsday is a total thing for comics fans...will it play out every week or was it only OW, who knows?  But, like "May the Fourth" for Star Wars fans, Thorsday is Thorsday for Thor fans.   (Although they may have all seen it already OW:)...

 

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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