11-14 Weekday Thread | Featuring Future BOFFY Award Winning Meltdown of Our Fallen False God

[Juby]

9 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Can't see TGM missing 700m. It's having the best summer legs ever and not far behind Avatar in dailies. Now Avatar obviously going to gain over the weekends, but not going to open up a 60m gap from now on, especially with the LD boost coming.

 

Biggest 7th domestic Wednesday:

 

1	Feb 3, 2010	Avatar	$2,647,797	3,074	$861	$603,789,348
2	Dec 29, 2004	The Polar Express	$2,243,365	2,618	$857	$147,165,621
3	Dec 26, 2012	Lincoln	$2,147,024	1,966	$1,092	$122,416,972
4	Jan 1, 2003	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	$2,129,000	2,505	$850	$245,996,000
5	Jul 4, 2001	Shrek	$2,128,586	2,704	$787	$233,298,753
6	Jul 13, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$2,078,744	3,513	$592	$604,000,127

 

 

Let's take a look at TGM run from different point of view.

 

Average week drop for TGM will be around 28.7% after this Thursday (this includes inflated Memmorial Day, Father's Day and 4th of July weekends + lack of any competition for first two weeks). After the last week (it will be over $24 million after ~$2m Thursday), with this pace, TGM will add around $54.2m till September 1st. So it might be at $660.2 million before Labor Day weekend (if it keep this pace ofc, which will be extremely hard to achieve). Do You seriously believe it will add another $40 million after that? This movie will be in cinemas 14 weeks by then. Avatar after its 14 week in release added $11.4 million. Jurassic World added around $12.3 million after massive expansion in the last 2 weeks of the summer (+997 theaters) and release date in mid June (not in May as TGM was).

 

I know this year's September and October are basically empty, and I know TGM is the most unpredictable b.o. run of the year, and that's the only reasons why I don't call beating Infinity War ($678.8m) a dead case. But for now, $672.5 million for Maverick is the absolute maximum I see.

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Juby

[Krissykins]

39 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Elvis run has been very impressive. It should get +7M this weekend (another 35% or so drop) and reach 105-106M already. 

 

The way it's going and with Baz saying the movie won't be on HBO Max at day 46, i think 4x multiplier is definitely happening. Huge success. 

 

Same can be said about The Black Phone. Let's wait to see the PVOD impact, but usually it's pretty much none. If it drop the same 35ish% of last week, it will reach around 72M by Sunday. 85-90M finish can happen, another excellent multiplier (3.6-3.8x)

 

I really hope Nope can mantain this good momentum for smaller movies. I know Nope is a bigger one but i still doubt it will be any close to a typical blockbuster budget.

I think Nope will do well for the kind of film it is (or could be) 

 

The thing is, Nope has such big shoes to fill and will be compared directly to Get Out ($176m) and Us ($175m). 
 

I think it has to make at least $100m to save face. 

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think Nope will do well for the kind of film it is (or could be) 

 

The thing is, Nope has such big shoes to fill and will be compared directly to Get Out ($176m) and Us ($175m). 
 

I think it has to make at least $100m to save face. 

Agreed. I'm hoping for the low end of BOP tracking to happen, it would be nice already, which is 45M iirc. 

 

Presales are pointing to around 4M previews for now from what i saw, it could happen. Hopefully it will get good reviews avoiding the possibility of crumbling on the next days, ideally it would be nice to go a bit bigger.

[Doffy]

42 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Let's take a look at TGM run from different point of view.

 

Average week drop for TGM will be around 28.7% after this Thursday (this includes inflated Memmorial Day, Father's Day and 4th of July weekends + lack of any competition for first two weeks). With this pace, after the last week (it will be over $24 million after ~$2m Thursday), TGM will add around $54.2m till September 1st. So it might be at $660.2 million before Labor Day weekend (if it keep this pace, which will be extremely hard to achieve). Do You seriously believe it will add another $40 million after that? This movie will be in cinemas 14 weeks by then. Avatar after its 14 week in release added $11.4 million. Jurassic World added around $12.3 million after massive expansion in the last 2 weeks of the summer (+997 theaters) and release date in mid June (not in May as TGM was).

 

I know this year's September and October are basiclly empty, and I know TGM is the most unpredictable b.o. run of the year, and that's the only reasons why I don't call beating Infinity War ($678.8m) a dead case. But for now, $672.5 million for Maverick is the absolute maximum I see.

 

670 before LD Weeknd is possible.

[Doffy]

53 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Let's take a look at TGM run from different point of view.

 

Average week drop for TGM will be around 28.7% after this Thursday (this includes inflated Memmorial Day, Father's Day and 4th of July weekends + lack of any competition for first two weeks). After the last week (it will be over $24 million after ~$2m Thursday), with this pace, TGM will add around $54.2m till September 1st. So it might be at $660.2 million before Labor Day weekend (if it keep this pace ofc, which will be extremely hard to achieve). Do You seriously believe it will add another $40 million after that? This movie will be in cinemas 14 weeks by then. Avatar after its 14 week in release added $11.4 million. Jurassic World added around $12.3 million after massive expansion in the last 2 weeks of the summer (+997 theaters) and release date in mid June (not in May as TGM was).

 

I know this year's September and October are basically empty, and I know TGM is the most unpredictable b.o. run of the year, and that's the only reasons why I don't call beating Infinity War ($678.8m) a dead case. But for now, $672.5 million for Maverick is the absolute maximum I see.

 

Bp was 665 before falling below 1m. If tgm can manage to stay above 1m until it pass 640 with possible imax expansion and LD boost 700 is feasible looks impossible but paramount should do everything to boost this to 700m mark they won't get this chance again.

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Bp was 665 before falling below 1m. If tgm can manage to stay above 1m until it pass 640 with possible imax expansion and LD boost 700 is feasible looks impossible but paramount should do everything to boost this to 700m mark they won't get this chance again.

They'll have another chance next february.

[DTP]

I don't mind waiting just a little bit longer for numbers.  I mean, sometimes early numbers just give premature hope or disappointment.  

 

Also, oof, I read Where the Crawdads Sing and enjoyed it overall, but the movie reviews so far have been making me wait until it's out on streaming.  

[Juby]

54 minutes ago, Doffy said:

670 before LD Weeknd is possible.

Can You explain me how? Are You assuming TGM will start having even better legs than so far without any holiday weekend and keep loosing theaters? I don't see it, $650-660m.

 

41 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Bp was 665 before falling below 1m. If tgm can manage to stay above 1m until it pass 640 with possible imax expansion and LD boost 700 is feasible looks impossible but paramount should do everything to boost this to 700m mark they won't get this chance again.

Paramount shouldn't and don't have to do anything right now. Anything over $300 million domestic for TGM would have been a huge win for the studio already, now their film will reach $650m domestic as the 9th movie of all time(!), so they don't have to prove anything to anyone. Maybe Paramount would try it if it was $1 million to add as it was with Black Panther struggling to reach $700m for 2 months, but no with $30-40 million gap.

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Juby

[Doffy]

18 minutes ago, Juby said:

Can You explain me how? Are You assuming TGM will start having even better legs than so far without any holiday weekend and keep loosing theaters? I don't see it, $650-660m.

 

Paramount shouldn't and don't have to do anything right now. Anything over $300 million domestic for TGM would have been a huge win for the studio already, now their film will reach $650m domestic as the 9th movie of all time(!), so they don't have to prove anything to anyone. Maybe Paramount would try it if it was $1 million to add as it was with Black Panther struggling to reach $700m for 2 months, but no with $30-40 million gap.

Totally depends on next weeknd drops if it manage to stay below 20 per drop 700 m is achievable.

[Doffy]

22 minutes ago, Juby said:

loosing theaters?

It still playing in 3500 theatres and won't available on digital until aug 23.

[setna]

I wanted to add some interesting data about TGM facts that i hope will refresh a little this forum after the storm. Not all the posters can give fresh numbers every day but i think we can also give interesting numbers and facts without privileged information and make this forum really interesting.
Long life to this forum that makes some people little happier!



Movies that made more money after 1st weekend


1-  TFA                                             688´7  M

2-Avatar                                           672  

 

3- Titanic                                         572

4- NWH                                          544

5- AEG                                              501

 

6- BP                                                498

 

7- TGM                                            478

 

8- Jurassic World                         444

 

9- Incredibles 2                             426

 

10- AIW                                          421

 

11- The Avengers                           416

 

12- The last Jedi                           400

 

 

These are the 12 films that made 400+ after its first weekend. I didn´t inlude re-releases of Titanic and Avatar.
TGM is now 7^th but has many chances to be 5^th and even 4 th, really something impressive apart of the multipler, that for sure, it´s the best all time for over 100M openers.





Movies that made more money after 1^st week
 

 

 

1- Avatar                            612 M

 

2-Titanic                             548

 

3- TFA                                 546

 

4- NWH                              419

 

5- BP                                   409

 

6- TGM                                399

 

7- AEG                                 385

 

8- JW                                   356

 

9- The Avengers                  353

 

10- AIW                               340

 

 

 

TGM now os 7^th but for sure will be 4 th another amazing fact. Apart from the 2 ultraleggy monsters, Avatar and Titanic, TFA is far away from another movies in the 21 th century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most weekends in the top 10 for the first 12 weekends all time

 

 

 

1- Avatar                                    11 weekends in top 10

 

2- Titanic                                     9

 

3- Frozen                                     8

 

4- Aladdin                                    6

 

5- American Sniper                      6

 

6- Black Panther                           6

 

7- NWH                                        6

 

8- TGM                                         6

 

9- E. T.                                          5

 

10- TFA                                         5

 

 

 

 

I only included wide releases.
TGM has 6 weekends in top 10, but still has run only 7 weeknds, so has 5 more to scale in the list.

Can have 8, 9, even 10? we´ll see it, but for sure will be in top 4 again, really great achievement.

 

And in this list is really crazy that E.T. Is still inside after 40 !!!! years, really amazing.

 

 

 

I hope you will enjoy it, in the next weeks we´ll see what more TGM can do, probably not the 700 M, but its doing histoy at the box office for sure.

 

 

 

 

[superduperm]

34 minutes ago, setna said:

I wanted to add some interesting data about TGM facts that i hope will refresh a little this forum after the storm. Not all the posters can give fresh numbers every day but i think we can also give interesting numbers and facts without privileged information and make this forum really interesting.
Long life to this forum that makes some people little happier!



Movies that made more money after 1st weekend


1-  TFA                                             688´7  M

2-Avatar                                           672  

 

3- Titanic                                         572

4- NWH                                          544

5- AEG                                              501

 

6- BP                                                498

 

7- TGM                                            478

 

8- Jurassic World                         444

 

9- Incredibles 2                             426

 

10- AIW                                          421

 

11- The Avengers                           416

 

12- The last Jedi                           400

 

 

These are the 12 films that made 400+ after its first weekend. I didn´t inlude re-releases of Titanic and Avatar.
TGM is now 7^th but has many chances to be 5^th and even 4 th, really something impressive apart of the multipler, that for sure, it´s the best all time for over 100M openers.





Movies that made more money after 1^st week
 

 

 

1- Avatar                            612 M

 

2-Titanic                             548

 

3- TFA                                 546

 

4- NWH                              419

 

5- BP                                   409

 

6- TGM                                399

 

7- AEG                                 385

 

8- JW                                   356

 

9- The Avengers                  353

 

10- AIW                               340

 

 

 

TGM now os 7^th but for sure will be 4 th another amazing fact. Apart from the 2 ultraleggy monsters, Avatar and Titanic, TFA is far away from another movies in the 21 th century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most weekends in the top 10 for the first 12 weekends all time

 

 

 

1- Avatar                                    11 weekends in top 10

 

2- Titanic                                     9

 

3- Frozen                                     8

 

4- Aladdin                                    6

 

5- American Sniper                      6

 

6- Black Panther                           6

 

7- NWH                                        6

 

8- TGM                                         6

 

9- E. T.                                          5

 

10- TFA                                         5

 

 

 

 

I only included wide releases.
TGM has 6 weekends in top 10, but still has run only 7 weeknds, so has 5 more to scale in the list.

Can have 8, 9, even 10? we´ll see it, but for sure will be in top 4 again, really great achievement.

 

And in this list is really crazy that E.T. Is still inside after 40 !!!! years, really amazing.

 

 

 

I hope you will enjoy it, in the next weeks we´ll see what more TGM can do, probably not the 700 M, but its doing histoy at the box office for sure.

 

 

 

 

Could you explain what you mean by the last list?

 

Avatar was definitely in the top 10 for more than 11 weekends. Plenty of other movies were also in the top 10 for more than six weekends. Am I missing something?

 

EDIT: Nvm I think I got it. You’re saying like Top Gun Maverick‘s second weekend for example was in the top 10 second weekends of all time, so that would count as one weekend in the top 10.

Edited July 15, 2022 by superduperm

[Juby]

34 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Totally depends on next weeknd drops if it manage to stay below 20 per drop 700 m is achievable.

TGM achieved less than 20% drops only twice, both of them were holiday weekends. But even if it'll drop only 19% this weekend, that still won't get the film to $700m domestic. It would have been at $618.5m after its 8th weekend - still $81.5m to go! TGM would have to pull at least x7.5 multiplayer to do so, that's just impossible (currently it's on track for x5.3 multi).

 

34 minutes ago, Doffy said:

It still playing in 3500 theatres and won't available on digital until aug 23.

3292 theaters starting today and probably under 3000 next weekend, and so on... I know vod will be at the end of August, but still, that won't make the film to get to $670m before that.

 

[Juby]

5 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Could you explain what you mean by the last list?

 

Avatar was definitely in the top 10 for more than 11 weekends. Plenty of other movies were also in the top 10 for more than six weekends. Am I missing something?

 

Probably the list shows how many times these films are in Top10 of all time for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th... and 12th weekends of all time. Titanic is not in the first three, but start counting by its fourth weekend (currently 12th, but without American Sniper and The Revenant that would be 10th).

Edited July 15, 2022 by Juby

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I think Nope will do well for the kind of film it is (or could be) 

 

The thing is, Nope has such big shoes to fill and will be compared directly to Get Out ($176m) and Us ($175m). 
 

I think it has to make at least $100m to save face. 

 

I think Nope is going to crash and burn. US was very divisive and that's putting it mildly. Im thinking Nope finishes with about 50 or 60. 

[The Dark Alfred]

I'd say 90% chance TGM is hitting 700m. There is zero competition this summer from now on, gonna stay in theatres for a while. It really need to reach 675-680m by the end of September and the re-release will push it over 700m. If it's not getting award buzz and Paramount is not re-rerelasing it, then yes that 10% negativity prevails. I just can't see Paramount missing the boat. For the record beating Titanic and IW is big enough of a cake anyway, 700m would be just the icing.

Edited July 15, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[cannastop]

19 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I'd say 90% chance TGM is hitting 700m. There is zero competition this summer from now on, gonna stay in theatres for a while. It really need to reach 675-680m by the end of September and the re-release will push it over 700m. If it's not getting award buzz and {aramount is not re-relaing it, then yes that 10% negativity prevails. I just can't see Paramount missing the boat. For the record beating Titanic and IW is big enough of a cake anyway, 700m would be just the icing.

Awards buzz would come too late for TGM.

[grey ghost]

I don't understand why the one person who had access to early numbers had to be like the mean little kid from The Twillight Zone episode where everyone was scared of him and had to think happy thoughts.

[charlie Jatinder]

Thor 8.1

M2 5.25

TGM 1.95

[LonePirate]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

I think Nope is going to crash and burn. US was very divisive and that's putting it mildly. Im thinking Nope finishes with about 50 or 60. 

Tracking must simply be awful for the film as I was expecting OW to be in that range, if not a little higher.