Weekend thread 7/15-7/17 | Actuals: Thor 4 46.63M, Minions 26.83, Crawdads 17.25, TGM 12.26, Elvis 8, Paws of Fury 6.31

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Thor Love and Thunder doesn't have China though, a market where Ragnarok made over $100m. That absolutely must be considered

 

I was actually referring to domestic. 

[Potiki]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

 

Dead Man's Chest but now At World's End

Correct, I saw At World's End a few times but didn't enjoy it as much, it dragged in the upside down/afterlife sand dunes. 

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I just feel like, if it were Peele coming off two bad movies or less than well received movies, audiences might see it as a trend. But still feel his future output could go either way. I think most people should and probably would keep an open mind on Nope for now.

Good thing for Peele that no one remembers the Twilight Zone reboot he did.

[PlatnumRoyce]

 

11 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

FWIW, I'm not at all concerned about the MCU as market. The audience is there. 

 

Thor: Ragnarok - China - Russia - Banned Markets = $700M WW USD

 

L&T matching that is fine for the film it is (i.e below average) when you consider where OS markets are right now in terms of ER vs the dollar. If L&T had similar reception to Ragnarok AND was putting up these kinds of numbers, then I'd be worried. I know it's only speculation on my part, but I believe that if L&T had Ragnarok's WOM it would do do $900-950M WW in the same markets. I don't know enough about the battle between ticket inflation and ER suppression to prognosticate on actual ticket sales in OS markets, but domestically it would probably be about a 10-13% increase in actual tickets sold over Ragnarok.

. 

I ran a quick and dirty version of this (inflation & exchange rates on each film's Opening Day + general CPI data for each territory between 2017 and 2021 & YoY inflation for June 2021-june 2022) for territories where both properties have opened and found L&T to be ~5% above Ragnarok. 

[Maggie]

There are some reviews for NOPE on letterboxd. Sounds like the movie will be pretty good. I, too was underwhelmed by US, but i'm hopeful NOPE is a return to form

[MrPink]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Good thing for Peele that no one remembers the Twilight Zone reboot he did.

 

Eh, he was an executive producer and hosted the shows but it's not like he directed any of em'. Not that the audience would necessarily discern that. But yes, fortunate to be buried on a streaming service barely anyone had.

Edited July 17, 2022 by MrPink

[Noctis]

4 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

500m is simply delusional, bud. Sorry to break it to you but Thor is NOT an IM, Spidey level SH. Nobody in the industry had that level of expectations, that's just pure forum fantasy talk. As I said before 400m could have happened, but it was obvious after the first reviews came out that it wasn't to be. So it's kinda performing as expected in the US, the OS run is underwhelming.

 

Its OS run is plain disappointing - no two ways about it.

 

And its domestic run most certainly is as well - if not more so. Ragnarok did $426m OS without China and $403m without Russia as well. 

 

Thor 4 has neither country so at the very least it should be able to pass by $400m especially with higher prices. If it does end up passing $403m, it won't be by much at all and will show a significant drop in admissions. The past two years theaters have had insane inflation.

 

Ragnarok opened to $122m OW and finished with $315m DOM - and this was a sequel to Dark World which was far and away the film that had the most negative reception in the MCU. 

 

You're telling me 5 years after Ragnarok which had great WOM...and Thor becoming far more popular through the Avenger films as well...opens to roughly the same in admissions if not slightly less on OW? And total will obviously be a significant drop in admissions. But a drop in OW admissions is absolutely disappointing. 

 

Thor 4 was coming off a beloved sequel and a titular character that exploded in popularity since 2017 all the way to 2019. The film should have cleared $400m in its sleep. 

 

 

[LegendaryBen]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Elvis is looking at a 140-150M finish as long as it has another sub-35% drop next weekend. It'll more than likely get doubles with Super Pets in two weeks, and there isn't much coming out to have its theater count drop below 2k anytime soon. Gimme that 5x  

Baz confirmed last week that Elvis will premiere on HBO MAX rather in the fall than August 8, which helps its chances more.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Thor 4 has neither country so at the very least it should be able to pass by $400m especially with higher prices. If it does end up passing $403m, it won't be by much at all and will show a significant drop in admissions. The past two years theaters have had insane inflation.

 

This doesn't account for ER destruction against the dollar which nearly makes the inflation moot. 

 

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Thor 4 was coming off a beloved sequel and a titular character that exploded in popularity since 2017 all the way to 2019. The film should have cleared $400m in its sleep. 

 

If it was good, it would have. 

[vale9001]

Are the marvel movies released in some form in China right now or they are completely "banned".?  I mean in a legal way. 

 

it's kinda of sad the fan can't seen anymore a saga they love a lot seeing the box office result of every movie. 

Edited July 17, 2022 by vale9001

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Are the marvel movies released in some form in China right now or they are completely "banned".?  I mean in a legal way. 

 

it's kinda of sad the fan can't seen anymore a saga they love a lot seeing the box office result of every movie. 

Disney in general isn't getting its movies in China anymore.

[harrisonisdead]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

Well maybe I'm just letting my complete dislike of the movie affect my judgment but yes 2.3 can be a standard horror movie multiplier especially when it opens it strongly as did but going by what people I've spoken to said there wasn't a lot of love for US. But like I said if I'm wrong, wouldn't be the first time, right?

Definitely depends on your circles, cuz everyone I've talked to irl who's seen both movies liked Us better than Get Out, interestingly enough.

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

Definitely depends on your circles, cuz everyone I've talked to irl who's seen both movies liked Us better than Get Out, interestingly enough.

See and I find that completely 100% hard to believe. Get out was fantastic whereas the other one was just horrible. But like you said it's all subjective at this point right? I'm assuming I'm a lot older than you so maybe people my generation didn't really care for it all that much.

[harrisonisdead]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

See and I find that completely 100% hard to believe. Get out was fantastic whereas the other one was just horrible. But like you said it's all subjective at this point right? I'm assuming I'm a lot older than you so maybe people my generation didn't really care for it all that much.

The people I'm speaking of (that I can think of off the top of my head) are 15, 21, 23, 39, and 46. But yeah it's not much of a sample size lol so I won't pretend that it's representative of the general public. And all but one of those are people who are really into film. The one who isn't doesn't really watch movies but is a big horror fan (and I was surprised when she mentioned it as a favorite of hers, because I imagine in general the movie went better over with film fans than horror fans)

[John2015]

Focus is happy with the opening of  "Mrs. Harris goes to Paris".  Deadline also reported that the film got A grade at CinemaScore.

 

Quote

 

Focus Features’ Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris will hit an estimated $1.9 million weekend gross at 980 theaters drawing women with those 55 years of age and older repping 44% of the total. Turnout was best on the coasts for the drama starring Leslie Manville and Isabelle Huppert.

That’s a PSA of $1,939 and a solid open in unpredictable times for specialty. Distributors these days can hope for at least $1 million on circa 1,000 screens, but don’t all make it.

...

Mrs. Harris, directed by Anthony Fabian, from eOne, has a A Cinema Score with strong reviews. Focus said the open and positive critical reception and word mouth set it up for solid theatrical run over the coming weeks. “We are pleased with the film’s strong opening and that older movie-goers are returning to enjoy the in-theater experience [and] look forward to the film having a long run in theaters this summer,” said distribution president Lisa Bunnell.

 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/mrs-harris-goes-to-paris-marcel-the-shell-specialty-box-office-1235071166/

Edited July 17, 2022 by John2015

[AnDr3s]

3 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

That's literally the joke. The dinosaur is supposed to be fake and the movie is supposed to be stupid and cheap-looking because it's a goofy, tongue-in-cheek feature. I know that the whole "it's supposed to be bad" criticism doesn't always work, but...yeah, sometimes that's totally valid here.

greatest moment in cinematic history

[Noctis]

39 minutes ago, baumer said:

See and I find that completely 100% hard to believe. Get out was fantastic whereas the other one was just horrible. But like you said it's all subjective at this point right? I'm assuming I'm a lot older than you so maybe people my generation didn't really care for it all that much.

 

Us > Get Out

 

The final fight is legendary in its beauty and emotion.

[Krissykins]

horrific for Thor if that’s the worst MCU drop of all time. Dreadful for Marcel the Shell too. 
 

Solid for Elvis and Black Phone. Not great for Minions drop wise either. Solid for Crawdads.

 

Pretty bad weekend overall. 

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

500m is simply delusional, bud. Sorry to break it to you but Thor is NOT an IM, Spidey level SH. Nobody in the industry had that level of expectations, that's just pure forum fantasy talk. As I said before 400m could have happened, but it was obvious after the first reviews came out that it wasn't to be. So it's kinda performing as expected in the US, the OS run is underwhelming.

The biggest ever drop of all time for the MCU was expected? huh? 
 

Nah. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, harrisonisdead said:

Definitely depends on your circles, cuz everyone I've talked to irl who's seen both movies liked Us better than Get Out, interestingly enough.

Well, I preferred US to Get Out too.