NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

It's not like a movie is either a flop or a success, there is a grey zone where something simply performs rather well/rather poorly when compared to the studios expectations.

I don't think execs at Warner Bros were aiming at just 250 M when they greenlit Elvis and gave it a 85 M budget, they probably hoped to reach Bohemian Rapsody's height (910 M) or at least earn HALF of it, which would have put Elvis at 450 M.

 

Did it recoup its budget? Pheraps, but we would need to know ho much of it goes to the Elvis foundation, how much to the international distributors and how much in P&A. 

 

Luhrmann is a reliable director (he too has his flops, like Australia) so that's why they give him money to work with, because he rarely gives them a loss. 

 

Now what I don't agree with in the slightest is that it would be considered a success in the pre-pandemic era, given that Rocketman had a way better budget/WW gross ratio  (40 to 190, almost 5x compared with 85 to -at best - 250, which is almost 3x) and still wasn't considered a success but rather a decent showing.

 

Same goes for Nope, everyone in this board will sing its praise like it saved the box office, but a projected 200 M WW gross on a 68 M budget is not a great deal for a Studio that will likely have spent money and time on a project to have a net gain of about ZERO.

 

As for Thor, that too is certainly under Disney/Marvel expectations and its bloated budget shouldn't take the movie to a mere 700 M WW Tally... it's crystal clear that the goal was to reach 1B, which should be achieved when you put in a 250 M budget. Is it a Flop? Hell no, but it is a disappointement nonetheless.

This is just your opinion. With 250m (but the movie will make more) and an 85m budget they should make exactly 85M of earnings (without counting the promotion but definitely not 85m dollars). 

 

It's the 2022. They're gonna make another poirot/brenagh even if the second made half of the budget, a third downton abbey is on talk even if it made half of its budget, Dune will have a second part even if it just double its budget and di you think warner wanted 500 milioni for Elvis lol?.

 

I mean even 600 weren't bad, why not. But they are absolutely happy for a drama movie making 3 times its budget just from the big screens. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by vale9001

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Far too early to call NOPE a success or not. it might have THE VILLAGE type legs and fail to hit $200m WW.

[M37]

25 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

Far too early to call NOPE a success or not. it might have THE VILLAGE type legs and fail to hit $200m WW.

I don’t really follow WW, but it’s going to easily clear $100M in US, probably a floor of around $120M, and a leggier target range is $130-$140M

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I don’t really follow WW, but it’s going to easily clear $100M in US, probably a floor of around $120M, and a leggier target range is $130-$140M

 

If it follows the pattern of Peele's previous movies a $130m domestic would lead to $185m WW.

[krla]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

In all this talk of legs, I think there is an underestimation of how the barren release calendar - the doggiest dog days of August we've had in a long time - is going to help lift the value of everything currently out in the market. After the Bullet Train/Easter Sunday weekend, there's really nothing of any consequence coming out: a niche release in Dragon Ball, then Beast which should do at best mid-teens, and handful of re-releases (NWH, ET, Jaws).

 

Whether it's club subscribers trying to get their money's worth, or just regular moviegoers searching for something to watch and reconsidering their first impression, it will raise the floor of even the "weaker" titles. Here are some previous weekends to illustrate, with holds from films not generally considered to have good WOM/legs noted

 

May 20-22 (2 weeks after Strange MoM) Notables: Sonic -12%, FB3 -24%

April 29-May 1 (2 weeks after FB3) Notables: Morbius -34%, Ambulance -35%

Jan 28-30 (2 weeks after Scream) - Notables: The 355 -16%, King's Man -7%

Sept 17-19 (2 weeks after Shang-Chi) - Notables: Candyman -26%, Paw Patrol -25%

 

Those (often lol) holds is what should be expected from mid-August until probably the 9/23 weekend with Darling and Avatar.

I imagine that's great for TGM, too. Should have some flat weeks coming up in August? And then up for LD weekend. If Bullet Train doesn't eat too much into TGM audience, could be possible TGM stays above $1m daily throughout August? Or at least averages $1m+ daily. I think around August 1st it'll hit $650m. So it could be over $680m going into labour day. Probably far too optimistic.

9 hours ago, Valonqar said:

It is. Studios don't approve bigger budgets if they expect lesser boxoffice. Marvel didn't approve 250M for L&T expecting the boxoffice barely above Ragnarok (180M budget), for example. They bank on audience/fandom growth. So 68M for Nope points at they expected the boxoffice above US and GO. It's no rocket science. I mean, the movie isn't a bomb and it'll turn some small profit so no need to be defensive. But it isn't making more than cheaper movies so return on investment will be smaller. 

Marvel is also banking on other revenues, like toys and other merch. They'd probably still be rolling in the dough if they handed out tickets for free. 

2 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

It's not like a movie is either a flop or a success, there is a grey zone where something simply performs rather well/rather poorly when compared to the studios expectations.

I don't think execs at Warner Bros were aiming at just 250 M when they greenlit Elvis and gave it a 85 M budget, they probably hoped to reach Bohemian Rapsody's height (910 M) or at least earn HALF of it, which would have put Elvis at 450 M.

 

Did it recoup its budget? Pheraps, but we would need to know ho much of it goes to the Elvis foundation, how much to the international distributors and how much in P&A. 

 

Luhrmann is a reliable director (he too has his flops, like Australia) so that's why they give him money to work with, because he rarely gives them a loss. 

 

Now what I don't agree with in the slightest is that it would be considered a success in the pre-pandemic era, given that Rocketman had a way better budget/WW gross ratio  (40 to 190, almost 5x compared with 85 to -at best - 250, which is almost 3x) and still wasn't considered a success but rather a decent showing.

 

Same goes for Nope, everyone in this board will sing its praise like it saved the box office, but a projected 200 M WW gross on a 68 M budget is not a great deal for a Studio that will likely have spent money and time on a project to have a net gain of about ZERO.

 

As for Thor, that too is certainly under Disney/Marvel expectations and its bloated budget shouldn't take the movie to a mere 700 M WW Tally... it's crystal clear that the goal was to reach 1B, which should be achieved when you put in a 250 M budget. Is it a Flop? Hell no, but it is a disappointement nonetheless.

1 hour ago, Eric the Tethered said:

As an aside, I'm very much annoyed with how box office grosses are and lament about how only "nostalgic toy commercials" are performing well. But like I don't think any WB or Uni execs will be crying themselves to sleep over Elvis nor Nope's numbers. They aren't life-changing, but both are likely to be profitable and well above their budgets just on theatrical. When we include VOD and TV airings and all that fun stuff, they'll be golden and will likely ensure Baz and Jordan will get other big projects. At most, I could maybe see a lower-budget effort from them, but they've thrived in lower costs before and have made stuff that's arguably more cinematic than the 250M budget behemoths. I know some will cry foul at "lowered expectations", but I think it's good to have perspective with all this.

With Elvis, they'll probably sell a ton of DVDs/Blu-Rays, since older folks still use those often. And it sounds like there is a ton of extra footage, so it's possible they pump out special editions, director's cuts, maybe even chop it into a miniseries or something. Lots of revenue potential there. 

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

If it follows the pattern of Peele's previous movies a $130m domestic would lead to $185m WW.

This is a bigger movie, should be bigger OS where the previous Peele movies was kinda small. 

 

Unless they release VOD before the international rollout, but i doubt

[WrathOfHan]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How can anyone pretend that nearly 140M with actually good holds isn't good enough for Elvis?

 

And ffs if Nope had opened even 30M+, that would still be pretty impressive. Here it is opening nearly 50M. US was coming off may be Best Horror movie in recent times and with actually solid trailers. Nope is supposed to come down from that.

 

I don't think there are many directors that can open a movie to nearly $50M with just their name. Probably Nolan and Cameron are only ones other than Peele.

Tarantino too.

[Noctis]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

I don’t really follow WW, but it’s going to easily clear $100M in US, probably a floor of around $120M, and a leggier target range is $130-$140M

 

Floor is $120m? No.

 

 

[vale9001]

9 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

It's not like a movie is either a flop or a success, there is a grey zone where something simply performs rather well/rather poorly when compared to the studios expectations.

I don't think execs at Warner Bros were aiming at just 250 M when they greenlit Elvis and gave it a 85 M budget, they probably hoped to reach Bohemian Rapsody's height (910 M) or at least earn HALF of it, which would have put Elvis at 450 M.

 

Did it recoup its budget? Pheraps, but we would need to know ho much of it goes to the Elvis foundation, how much to the international distributors and how much in P&A. 

 

Luhrmann is a reliable director (he too has his flops, like Australia) so that's why they give him money to work with, because he rarely gives them a loss. 

 

Now what I don't agree with in the slightest is that it would be considered a success in the pre-pandemic era, given that Rocketman had a way better budget/WW gross ratio  (40 to 190, almost 5x compared with 85 to -at best - 250, which is almost 3x) and still wasn't considered a success but rather a decent showing.

 

Same goes for Nope, everyone in this board will sing its praise like it saved the box office, but a projected 200 M WW gross on a 68 M budget is not a great deal for a Studio that will likely have spent money and time on a project to have a net gain of about ZERO.

 

As for Thor, that too is certainly under Disney/Marvel expectations and its bloated budget shouldn't take the movie to a mere 700 M WW Tally... it's crystal clear that the goal was to reach 1B, which should be achieved when you put in a 250 M budget. Is it a Flop? Hell no, but it is a disappointement nonetheless.

You're saying they want 500M cause bohemian made 900M, like bohemian isn't an expection and Elvis is already the biggest biopic musical ever after Bohemian WW. It will beat Straight ought compton at 205M WW. 

 

Rocket man, a biopic from a still living and performing star with music hits untill the late 90's, made 195M WW, the biopic about Johny cash made 180M WW, the movies about judy and Aretha made less than 50M and you think they want 450-500m for elvis. 

 

If the numbers are so - so they would release it on HBO max after 45 days, the fact they changed their plane means they're happy with the box office numbers. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by vale9001

[baumer]

Bohemian was definitely an anomaly when it comes to musical biopics. I mean did anybody ever think it was going to gross even half of what it did worldwide? There's always exceptions to the rule that come out and exceed everyone's expectations.

 

And as @vale9001 pointed out other biopics like straight Outta Compton and walk the line are going to be exceeded by Elvis more than likely. So yeah it's not going to be joining the exception to the rule but it certainly going to do very well in comparison to most other biopics.

[TwoMisfits]

14 hours ago, BlaineGabbert said:

Huh? I've never been a user here before.

 

Welcome and thanks for joining the commentary here!

[JustLurking]

The biggest difference between BoRap and Elvis isn't even domestic but rather overseas anyway, european and asian markets loved BoRap. Hell, BoRap made nearly as much in Japan as Elvis will make domestic lmao.

[Cooper Legion]

BoRhap was  pretty normal high end performance DOM. The OS was utter coco bananas.

[The Dark Alfred]

Elvis is obviously a success. For a biopic, for an original film, it's doing very well. There is absolutely no doubt about it. It's still have a lot left in the tank, it's gonna end up 260-270m WW.

[Liiviig 1998]

Any Saturday numbers?

[Liiviig 1998]

11 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

BoRhap was  pretty normal high end performance DOM. The OS was utter coco bananas.

Let's face it Bho rap was the exception .

 

It just kept chugging along esp OS, projections  were rising week to week ,it was insane.

 

 

[M37]

6 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Floor is $120m? No.

 

 

Nope is going to make roughly $65M+ In it’s first full week. Giving it same legs as Us, which was both more divisive and faced far more competition, would get to $120M. Could see it coming up just short, like say $117 (which is why I said probably) 

 

Scream, another frontloaded horror flick where the first week was inflated by a holiday Monday, still made 2.09x it’s opening week, due in part to lack of competition, the same benefit Nope will have in coming months. Conjuring 3 last summer was 2.01x, Old 2.02x. 
 

So again, ~$120 is the floor here, and I’d expect $130+

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

The biggest difference between BoRap and Elvis isn't even domestic but rather overseas anyway, european and asian markets loved BoRap. Hell, BoRap made nearly as much in Japan as Elvis will make domestic lmao.

 

Queen are the most selling foreign band ever in Japan. That's because their genre of music maybe was more appealing but also because it was a different age and the Queen made a lot of tours and promotion in Japan. This is very important. They even released a song in japanese.

Elvis never made a concert outside the Usa so i can imagine in some culture they barely know him. 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

 

Queen are the most selling foreign band ever in Japan. That's because their genre of music maybe was more appealing but also because it was a different age and the Queen made a lot of tours and promotion in Japan. This is very important. They even released a song in japanese.

Elvis never made a concert outside the Usa so i can imagine in some culture they barely know him. 

There's definitely a legacy difference, but also just a more liked film. BoRap's multiplier in Japan is ridicolous.

[vale9001]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

There's definitely a legacy difference, but also just a more liked film. BoRap's multiplier in Japan is ridicolous.

 

Elvis never started. It made like 2m dollars. So it's not really about liking the movie or legs, simply there isn't an audience. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by vale9001