Weekend - 07/29-07/31 | Super Pets 23M

[M37]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Write it as many times as you want. It’s just your opinion, we all have them. That’s the fun of weekend threads. 
 

 
In all seriousness, it’s not a fact - we’ll have to see. But my frustration is more about the constant misuse of multipliers, in comparing the opening weekend to the total gross for summer releases to those that opened during other seasons

 

Despite a lower FSS total, Super Pets is going to net ~$32-$36M in the fist week, or 13-27% more than Bad Guys, not less. That’s the relative starting value! If one wants to argue it will still leg our far worse, and wind up in the same range in total (under $100M), fine let’s have that debate. But to just see $23<$24 and proclaim under $100M is just really bad math & misunderstanding of box office patterns (as it was comparing Nope to Us in such a manner last week)

Edited July 31, 2022 by M37

[bobdysm]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Sorry, I should’ve been clear: that 40m is US only, 62m worldwide. 
 

Yeh I’m not sure about paid subs Vs free trials, not sure they’d release that information. 

Paramount+ has 40m subs worldwide. They didn't break out US vs international in their last earnings report. They 62m total DTC subs, so including Showtime, BET+, Noggin, Nick Hits etc.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 
In all seriousness, it’s not a fact - we’ll have to see. But my frustration is more about the constant misuse of multipliers, in comparing the opening weekend to the total gross for summer releases to those that opened during other seasons

 

Despite a lower FSS total, Super Pets is going to net ~$32-$36M in the fist week, or 13-27% more than Bad Guys, not less. That’s the relative starting value! If one wants to argue it will still leg our far worse, and wind up in the same range in total (under $100M), fine let’s have that debate. But to just see $23<$24 and proclaim under $100M is just really bad math & misunderstanding of box office patterns (as it was comparing Nope to Us in such a manner last week)

I agree with all this save the part where you mentioned in another post that it'll pass LY. I think SP will get to over 100M DOM but not pass LY.

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

Baz's next film at WB is likely at this point, he's delivered two successful films for them. 

 

The fact Tenet made over 300m OS during the height of the pandemic is insane. I do think had WB kept it back a year or two, it would have done even better.

 

 

definitely. It doesn’t get talked about much in here though due to the domestic, but that movie felt massive to me last summer. Saw it four times in theatres. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 
In all seriousness, it’s not a fact - we’ll have to see. But my frustration is more about the constant misuse of multipliers, in comparing the opening weekend to the total gross for summer releases to those that opened during other seasons

 

Despite a lower FSS total, Super Pets is going to net ~$32-$36M in the fist week, or 13-27% more than Bad Guys, not less. That’s the relative starting value! If one wants to argue it will still leg our far worse, and wind up in the same range in total (under $100M), fine let’s have that debate. But to just see $23<$24 and proclaim under $100M is just really bad math & misunderstanding of box office patterns (as it was comparing Nope to Us in such a manner last week)

 

Don't forget, August starts to play less like summer and more like the school year as weeks go by.  Some K-12s start tomorrow (which is nuts to me) and keep adding more in as the weeks go to Labor Day and many colleges start Aug 15 with more on Aug 22 and pretty much all in by Aug 29...so there are fewer summer weeks, vs say Minions, got...

[wildphantom]

58 minutes ago, bobdysm said:

Paramount+ has 40m subs worldwide. They didn't break out US vs international in their last earnings report. They 62m total DTC subs, so including Showtime, BET+, Noggin, Nick Hits etc.

They’ve also got however many subs they’re counting of the UK’s Sky Movies subscribers, who are getting it bundled in for free. I’ve got it via sky. Boy what an awful app. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Don't forget, August starts to play less like summer and more like the school year as weeks go by.  Some K-12s start tomorrow (which is nuts to me) and keep adding more in as the weeks go to Labor Day and many colleges start Aug 15 with more on Aug 22 and pretty much all in by Aug 29...so there are fewer summer weeks, vs say Minions, got...

Understood, but as schools start up, the effect is pushing more business into weekends at expense of weekdays. Is some of the demand/potential business lost in the transition? Sure, less opportunity/free time means more potential conflicts 

 

But “summer weekdays” doesn’t just mean weekdays are more lucrative and there is no offset, but rather that they are higher because demand is more spread out over the full week, reducing the value/peaks of the weekend 

[baumer]

4 hours ago, fmpro said:

How would your rank Get out,Us and Nope?

 

I just saw Get out the other day. Loved it. Did not care for Us

 

Get Out is fantastic!

Us is not my tempo at all.

Nope is just boring for the first hour and it's a really weird story. Not my tempo at all.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

They’ve also got however many subs they’re counting of the UK’s Sky Movies subscribers, who are getting it bundled in for free. I’ve got it via sky. Boy what an awful app. 

Yeh I think the article I found was from March so maybe they’ll report a decent bump in subscribers next time

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

23 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Nope is just boring for the first hour and it's a really weird story. Not my tempo at all.

Nope should have been weirder, actually

[AJG]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

They’ve also got however many subs they’re counting of the UK’s Sky Movies subscribers, who are getting it bundled in for free. I’ve got it via sky. Boy what an awful app. 

It’s an absolute joke and the idea they want people to pay money for the service is diabolical. The library is anaemic. Since launch they’ve only added 8 shows (5 of which are just originals being added to the U.K. late), and 10 movies (4 of which are Lifetime Channel Originals).

 

They launched prematurely. My guess is Paramount rushed it out to boast to investors or a new buyer that they’ve launched the app globally.

[CJohn]

Nope and DC Pets need some strong legs and international support or else both will end up as flops with the 70M and 90M budgets, respectively. Really bad way to end the Summer. Hopefully Bullet Train posts strong numbers.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, CJohn said:

Nope and DC Pets need some strong legs and international support or else both will end up as flops with the 70M and 90M budgets, respectively. Really bad way to end the Summer. Hopefully Bullet Train posts strong numbers.

Nope is not going to flop. It'll make probably 120ish domestic, possibly 130-140?. Would only need like 50ish from there internationally which will be easy. Us did 80m internationally and Get Out did 79. 200m WW should happen? It won't be as insanely profitable as his last 2 movies, but there'll be revenue so it's not a flop. VOD will be very strong post theatrical. And it's still good to keep Peele in the Universal family/library. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Elvis is at 129m. Could it pass Gatsby's 144.8m? It just needs, like, 15m and it should be able to hang around throughout August? 

[Ronin46]

20 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Elvis is at 129m. Could it pass Gatsby's 144.8m? It just needs, like, 15m and it should be able to hang around throughout August? 

 

I think it will for sure. Unless it appears on HBO Max soon which I think its not slated to yet so should have 4 more weeks at least to leg it out. I think 150M seems likely from here.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

20 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Elvis is at 129m. Could it pass Gatsby's 144.8m? It just needs, like, 15m and it should be able to hang around throughout August? 

Definitely. It would only need to go 3.9x this weekend and it only dropped around 11%. I can see it hitting $155M. 

[LonePirate]

7 hours ago, Jonwo said:

The fact Tenet made over 300m OS during the height of the pandemic is insane. I do think had WB kept it back a year or two, it would have done even better.

 

 

Tenet would have easily cleared $500M OS (and $250M US/Can) if there had been no pandemic. I ditched work one afternoon during its first week to see it here in the US. There were two other people in the theater besides myself. Nolan makes movies for the big screen and Tenet is no exception as the film's cinematography is excellent and was worth the price of admission. Say what you will about the script; but I still liked the film more than I did Dunkirk.

[Liiviig 1998]

15 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Tenet would have easily cleared $500M OS (and $250M US/Can) if there had been no pandemic. I ditched work one afternoon during its first week to see it here in the US. There were two other people in the theater besides myself. Nolan makes movies for the big screen and Tenet is no exception as the film's cinematography is excellent and was worth the price of admission. Say what you will about the script; but I still liked the film more than I did Dunkirk.

More like 150-180M US /CAN, 450-500m OS.

[eddyxx]

So I’m just now realizing that one way(BP2) or another(Avatar2) that The Avengers is falling out of the top 10 this year. Wow! I remember when it came out and we thought it’s records wouldn’t be topped for a long time. Now it’s been 10 years and all it has left is the May record I think.

Edited August 1, 2022 by eddyxx

[M37]

10 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

So I’m just now realizing that one way(BP2) or another(Avatar2) that The Avengers is falling out of the top 10 this year. Wow! I remember when it came out and we thought it’s records wouldn’t be topped for a long time. Now it’s been 10 years and all it has left is the May record I think.

But what Avengers doesn’t fall out of the top 10 … ?