Weekend Thread | October 7-10th | Smile grins with a powerful $18.5m second weekend (18% drop!), Lyle hums a tune to $11.4m, Amsterdam gets karma'd with $6.4m

[BadOlCatSylvester]

16 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yes, this i know. Smart move, especially considering he's in favor of streaming

Actually, he changed his mind after Top Gun 2. Now he wants to ramp up Paramount's big-screen output to 12-15 movies per year by 2024. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/paramount-film-chief-plans-to-ramp-up-theatrical-release-output-1235213885/

[interiorgatordecorator]

52 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's benefitting from positive WOM and being the most broadly-appealing horror film out in time for October (Halloween Ends seems destined to be a one weekend wonder, Prey for the Devil looks like a dump). I plan to check it out at some point this month.

 

I was under the incorrect impression that low brow horror movies, due to the manner in which one is suppossed to derive enjoyment ouf of them, were simply incapable of having positive wom

[cookie]

36 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

I was under the incorrect impression that low brow horror movies, due to the manner in which one is suppossed to derive enjoyment ouf of them, were simply incapable of having positive wom

I haven't seen it, but I've seen reviews saying it's smarter/scarier than the marketing makes it out to be. I think the surprise factor from that is aiding word of mouth.

Edited October 8, 2022 by cookie

[Cmasterclay]

I wasn't going to see Smile but the holds and word of mouth have convinced me. Proof that this is a real effect and not just a nebulous concept!!

[Grebacio]

Deadline's 3 Day Estimates

 

1.) Smile (Par) 3,659 theaters (+14), Fri $5.4M (-34%), $16.8M (-26%), 3-day $49M/Wk 2

2.) Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (Sony) 4,350 theaters, Fri $3.5M, 3-day $12M-$13.3M/Wk 1

3.) Amsterdam (Dis) 3,005 theaters, Fri $2.6M, 3-day $6.9M/Wk 1

4.) The Woman King (Sony) 3,342 (-162) theaters Fri $1.75M (-23%), , 3-day $5.1M (-27%)/Total $54M/Wk 4

5.) Don’t Worry Darling (NL/WB), 3,324 (-797) theaters, Fri $1.15M (-50%), 3-day $3.5M (-48%)/Total $38.5M/ Wk 3

6.)Avatar (re) (20th/Dis) 2,040 theaters (+180), Fri $655K (-44%) 3-day $2.6M (-47%), Total $783.7M (re-issue running total through ten days is $23.3M)/Wk 3 of re-issue

7.) Bros (Uni) 3,356 theaters (+6), Fri $670K (-64%), 3-day $2.3M (-53%)/Total $9M/ Wk 2

8.) Barbarian (20th/Dis) 2,160 theaters (-560), Fri $629k (-22%), 3-day $2.1M (-24%)/Total $36.4M/Wk 5

9.) Ponniyan Selvan: Part One (Sar) 500 locations, Fri $264K (-87%), 3-day $918K (-78%)/Total $5.7M/ Wk 2

10.) Terrifier 2 (Iconic) 875 theaters, Fri $337K, 3-day $771K, Total $1.17M/Wk 1

[cookie]

Oof for Bros.

 

Barbarian looking good for $40m+ total. Nice little success for Disney/Fox while most of their other output has struggled.

Edited October 8, 2022 by cookie

[Borobudur]

Smile in its 2nd weekend, make what most people thought it would do in its opening weekend. 

[Valonqar]

Deadline's WK number is wrong. It's 1,35M not 1.75M which was last week number.

 

 

[Flip]

Barbarian over 4x legs is great for a horror movie

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, cookie said:

Oof for Bros.

 

Barbarian looking good for $40m+ total. Nice little success for Disney/Fox while most of their other output has struggled.

Despite them clearly dumping it. Not a single international release date until the second weekend of its box office. 
 

As big a surprise to them as it was us I’d imagine. Can’t wait to see it in a few weeks, finally!

[CJohn]

Disney has no clue what to do with Fox movies. They have no idea how to sell them because they need strategy behind them and not just a barrage of spots and street marketing. 

[Eric is Quiet]

I mean judging by recent interviews, Disney seemed very invested in Barbarian and its success and wanted to push the film as a "mystery", with a bigger emphasis towards WOM than big trailers that spoil everything. If this was under Neon or A24, like Cregger tried to do, I doubt this film would get to even a quarter of what it's currently making.

 

https://www.vulture.com/2022/10/no-one-in-hollywood-wanted-to-make-barbarian.html

[CJohn]

Disney is so invested in it the movie is barely getting a theatrical release OS.

[Grebacio]

I legit knew of Barbarian existence only due this forum and r/boxoffice. 

[Eric is Quiet]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Disney is so invested in it the movie is barely getting a theatrical release OS.

I mean Crazy Rich Asians, which was based on a popular book series, barely got a theatrical release OS as well. Sometimes this stuff happens. Either way, Disney's distribution and marketing, even if it could have been stronger, was still the best thing that could have happened to it financially.

[Potiki]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

I expect Puss in Boots will do well for similar demo reasons as Minions and Sonic. Strange World, however …

 

To be blunt: as long as studios are trying to chase white, suburban, middle class families, especially with younger kids, they’re going to fall short, as that is by far the largest share of streaming subscriptions, where the theatrical family market is weakest. Gotta be able to draw in teens - with or without their parents - and/or non-white families. That’s where demand is still strong

The White population actually under index compared to every other demographic in terms of streaming.

 

 

source: https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/lets-talk-about-streaming-and-engaging-the-latino-audience/

[Hades]

27 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Disney has no clue what to do with Fox movies. They have no idea how to sell them because they need strategy behind them and not just a barrage of spots and street marketing. 

Life of Pi, Shape of Water , The Revenant (Even with Leo) would have all bombed hard under them..They should just sell or close shop.

[TwoMisfits]

53 minutes ago, Potiki said:

The White population actually under index compared to every other demographic in terms of streaming.

 

 

source: https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/lets-talk-about-streaming-and-engaging-the-latino-audience/

 

But this graphic isn't technically "who watches movies on tv vs at the movies", it's "how do folks watch their tv"...and of course, whites would overindex with cable over streaming b/c they overindex by age, and the older you are, the more likely you're still using cable and vice versa...

[Zucch11]

6 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

From the outside smile doesnt look particularly different to something like "truth or dare", so what business does it have getting a legendary drop for a horror movie?

Perhaps you should go see the movie and see for yourself?

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

I mean judging by recent interviews, Disney seemed very invested in Barbarian and its success and wanted to push the film as a "mystery", with a bigger emphasis towards WOM than big trailers that spoil everything. If this was under Neon or A24, like Cregger tried to do, I doubt this film would get to even a quarter of what it's currently making.

 

https://www.vulture.com/2022/10/no-one-in-hollywood-wanted-to-make-barbarian.html

I don’t buy into that angle, at all.

 

Keeping it a mystery is one thing. Dumping it with little marketing in 2300 cinemas the weekend after Labor day is another thing entirely. 
 

Of course they’re going to try to change the narrative now that it’s a WOM hit.