THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Borobudur]

27 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

if BP2 makes 180-190m ow it seems like 600m domestic may be best case scenario unless the holidays give some serious legs, with mid 500m being the most likely scenario

This is assuming they don't give a shortened 48 days window like to DS2. If so, BP2 will hit Disney+ right during year end holiday season and disappear quickly from big screen, leaving cash behind. If they can give Thor 4 a 63 days treatment, why not BP2? 

[Ryan Reynolds]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

This is assuming they don't give a shortened 48 days window like to DS2. If so, BP2 will hit Disney+ right during year end holiday season and disappear quickly from big screen, leaving cash behind. If they can give Thor 4 a 63 days treatment, why not BP2? 

Chapek could want a subscriber boost for wallstreet , rather than boxoffice which is less important

Edited November 13, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[BluKyberCrystal]

3 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

"Peak MCU"

 

Multiverse of Madness doing only 955 isn't peak MCU, it's Peak DCEU. Last time a movie which opened over 160 million and missed 1 Billion was Batman vs Superman, and that's the club Dr Strange has joined.

 

I don't think people are concerned about MCU being in downward trends currently, box office underperformance of current movies is concern but bigger thing is that eventually if they continue like this then they WILL go down.

 

If it had China, it would've crossed a billion. Which is what the peak era MCU movies had. Without China, Russia, and the Ukraine accounted for, MOM matches up to any movie that isn't Avengers, BP, or NWH. Now we can argue inflation but there is also exchange rates to consider. MOM matches Civil War startling well.

[eddyxx]

3 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

So MCU trend of standalone sequels Opening Weekend increasing is going to end with Black Panther 2, and i think even Marvels will open less than Captain Marvel.

 

Disappointing performance by BP 2 despite having glorious reviews and spectacular audience reception, should've done 200+ opening weekend at minimum.

 

Opening weekend less than Dr Strange which got poor reception is just not good enough.

You ignoring all those other titles had small box office to increase from. You forget Age of Ultron also dropped from a similar phenomenon.

[ZattMurdock]

3 hours ago, RthMav said:

BP2 Sat 58

So… we are truly living in a post truth world where "muh opinions" is running amok, isn’t it? People seriously trying to underplay this box office numbers clearly either haven’t been around following box office in a while or are acting in bad faith. The fact that a sequel to a $200m Marvel Studios film will get anywhere close to that after the passing of the title character is absolute madness and from the little I heard, Coogler and the team once again delivered with Wakanda Forever.

 

I’m avoiding social media and forums since next week ‘cause despite having tickets for the premiere, I ‘lucked out’ testing positive for covid last Wednesday. I will go back to my social media black out but thanks for keeping us updated as always, Rtheimdall.

[Verrows]

42 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

So… we are truly living in a post truth world where "muh opinions" is running amok, isn’t it? People seriously trying to underplay this box office numbers clearly either haven’t been around following box office in a while or are acting in bad faith. The fact that a sequel to a $200m Marvel Studios film will get anywhere close to that after the passing of the title character is absolute madness and from the little I heard, Coogler and the team once again delivered with Wakanda Forever.

 

I’m avoiding social media and forums since next week ‘cause despite having tickets for the premiere, I ‘lucked out’ testing positive for covid last Wednesday. I will go back to my social media black out but thanks for keeping us updated as always, Rtheimdall.

Dude...the discussion isn't even about Wakanda Forever....

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Ragnarok took a big hit in weekend 3 in the face of Justice League. WF won't face any big competition until Avatar in weekend 6. I think 3x is achievable, over under $550M total.

 

 

Original DS did 2.7* in Nov 2016.

Catch fire also did 2.68*.

 

Both were well received.

 

November legs are always muted due to weekdays.

 

Nov releases that are leggy tend to be to animation and thanksgiving releases bse they are close enough  to festive season to benefit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[thajdikt]

I feel like for a film that has had so many problems that it had in pre-production , and lost it´s lead this was probably close to the best possible scenario. Also considering the poor reception from the latest two MCU movies and the reviews being good not great. 

[Cap]

Me, watching the thread:

 

[ZattMurdock]

36 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Dude...the discussion isn't even about Wakanda Forever....

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

I feel like for a film that has had so many problems that it had in pre-production , and lost it´s lead this was probably close to the best possible scenario. Also considering the poor reception from the latest two MCU movies and the reviews being good not great. 

Absolutely. They really did it.

 

Can't wait to see it again! I'm thinking probably 3 viewings for me. Maybe another one sometime during the holidays.

[Ozymandias]

no way this catches Tom Cruise now

 

all eyes on The Way of Water: A James Cameron Story

[Liiviig 1998]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

no way this catches Tom Cruise now

 

all eyes on The Way of Water: A James Cameron Story

WF wasn't going to top tgm . First movie was a cultural phenomenon . Even with an A+ . Think it would have done 600-625m. 

 

I put my bets if TG3 happens and it's get an A+ , it still wouldn't top tgm.

 

 

[wildphantom]

3 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Chapek could want a subscriber boost for wallstreet , rather than boxoffice which is less important

after what they said as a major reason for their bigger loss within streaming this past quarter, I don’t think they’re far away from having a PVOD window before they start giving these movies away for free. It’s been non-sensical up to this point. 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

7 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Disappointing performance by BP 2 despite having glorious reviews and spectacular audience reception, should've done 200+ opening weekend at minimum.

 

Opening weekend less than Dr Strange which got poor reception is just not good enough.

 

Is this guy seriously trying to run with "This film SHOULD have had a top 8 opening of all time and anything less than that is a disappointment"?

 

The Par range WW for Black Panther 2 should be around 850m-1.050m with par set at 950m. That would be a very solid profit while acknowledging the absence of money from China and Rus. The first movie was a zeitgeist film and to expect the same again is ridiculous just as to expect the next Spider-Man film to do NWH numbers, to expect Fallen Kingdom to have done JW numbers, and to expect any future TG3 to do TGM numbers is ridiculous. All context considered, I'd say anything below 850 would be a disappointment, anything above 1.05 a big success. That's where I'd put my lines.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

no way this catches Tom Cruise now

 

all eyes on The Way of Water: A James Cameron Story

 

As if Eyes were on BP2 to outperform Avatar 2? Black Panther didn't even make half of what Avatar made, less than 0.5A you could say.

 

For BP2 I think it's doing good given the circumstances, which is being released while MCU hype is at a 3/4 year low and the main lead and character from the first movie that people loved passing away.

[SchumacherFTW]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

As if Eyes were on BP2 to outperform Avatar 2? Black Panther didn't even make half of what Avatar made, less than 0.5A you could say.

 

For BP2 I think it's doing good given the circumstances, which is being released while MCU hype is at a 3/4 year low and the main lead and character from the first movie that people loved passing away.

You know they meant domestic, remember that's the barometer in a domestic weekend thread. 

[Brainbug]

4 hours ago, Verrows said:

The Jurassic World Dominion box office is the epitome of MEH for me. Kinda feels like it is to the Jurassic franchise as Rise of Skywalker was to Star Wars. Not as meh as that but sort of in that category.

 

I actually enjoyed the film more than most though. Just thought that it landed with a resounding thump at the box office given its status as the big finale.

 

Film 1: $652M

Film 2: $417M

Film 3: $376M (with huge inflation)

 

Bleh.

 

 

Agreed in terms of box office.

 

Sadly.

 

Though reaching the billion imo ensured that its run worldwide was still respectable.

[IronJimbo]

13 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

You know they meant domestic, remember that's the barometer in a domestic weekend thread. 

yes, i know exactly what i'm doing

[Brainbug]

Regarding WF, me thinks that this OW is very good and with the seemingly great reception, it should clear 450M DOM with 500M+ beeing very possible. What remains to be seen imo is if the "sadder" aspects of the movie could hamper repeat viewings, which the first one got a ton of.