THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Those PostTrak numbers (93% positive and 85% definite recommend) coupled with a pretty weak 5 week run to A2 makes me think this could hit 3x OW. I'd at least bank on 2.75x.

Edited November 13, 2022 by K'uk'ulkan XXR

[Flopped]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$180m is a fantastic opening, but I am surprised it opened under MoM. I’m sure it’ll leg it out and beat it in the long run. 
 

How does the $150m international start compare to the previous film in the same markets? 

The fact that the sequel to BP couldn't clear 200M domestic is proof that the general audience is moving on from Marvel. Cinema is healing. 

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Civil War def wasn't close to peak MCU. AOU has dented it and MCU fatigue was real conversation. It took Phase 3 and brilliant 2016 & 2017 to turn the tide and Infinity War sealing the deal in 2018 for peak MCU.

 

Well then phase 4 in 2022 definitely isn't peak MCU either.

 

I'd argue it was stronger during the Iron Man 3 days.

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Flopped said:

The fact that the sequel to BP couldn't clear 200M domestic is proof that the general audience is moving on from Marvel. Cinema is healing. 

a sequel without the titular character, no leadup to a massively anticipated avengers movie and slighly less althought still fantastic reception plus pandemic probably means lots of older folks that came out for #1 didn't come out for #2

[Nikostar]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

The fact that the sequel to BP couldn't clear 200M domestic is proof that the general audience is moving on from Marvel. Cinema is healing. 

You joking right

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

Def naaahhhh

Def yeahhhhhh

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think the beginning of phase 4 was the peak popularity for the MCU but with quality being down, the audience has dropped as well.

[Derpity]

Don't see how anyone can classify $180m OW as "fantastic" or "impressive" when the first Black Panther opened to $202m with much lower ticket prices. And you certainly can't blame reviews.

 

Clearly there is some significant weakening of the audience here for this type of movie. Not like alarming or anything, but also definitely weakening.

[jedijake]

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

WF's 180M (likely over with actuals) is a great retention from the first movie, no? Given the circumstances (losing the leading man) coming this close to MoM OW (a movie whose trailer was atatched at the end of NWH!) is a great achievment. Not trying to put down MoM but credit where it's due.

The way I see it is this. The retention was the same as The Last Jedi. Two different situations. For TLJ, the anticipation and excitement was there but WOM faltered. For BP2, despite the first one, there was skepticism for this one due to lack of Chadwick. However, the WOM is great. So they both had things to balance it out. When all is said and done, BP2 should have better staying power or at least have a better legacy of being well respected and liked. TLJ had the holidays. BP2 will has better reception. I can see them both having the same multipliers.

 

$500-$530 million is where I am going to place BP2 domestically.

[Issac Newton]

Top 10 films at domestic #boxoffice grossed $206.5M this wknd. 87% of that ($180M) was just #BlackPanther. And 34% of that ($61M) was from premium screens like IMAX and 3D. Audience scores are beating #Thor & #DoctorStrange sequels and more like #SpiderManNoWayHome! #MCU #Marvel

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) November 13, 2022

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think the beginning of phase 4 was the peak popularity for the MCU but with quality being down, the audience has dropped as well.

It was inevitable quality would diminish if you do 9-11 projects a year, regardless of what others might say.

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, Flopped said:

The fact that the sequel to BP couldn't clear 200M domestic is proof that the general audience is moving on from Marvel. Cinema is healing. 

 

Sauron: When Marvel was defeated, it was like a great clenched fist had released its grasp on my neck. And in the stillness of that first sunrise, at last, I felt the light of the True Cinema again. And I knew, if I was ever to be forgiven that I had to heal everything by  watching Avatar 50 times.

 

Galadriel: You. My King. Of the World.

 

They sailed into sunset and lived hapilly ever after. 

 

[LeoC]

MCU fandom peaked around 2018-2019. It's not only about the number of fans but also the level of zealotry of the fans. 

 

Number-wise, MCU fandom probably peaked after EG. But most fans probably won't feel as fanatic as they were when waiting for IW and EG.  2018-2019 was the best time to be an MCU fan.

 

[Issac Newton]

It took BLACK PANTHER 2 ($180M) all of 3 days to eclipse the domestic box office total of BLACK ADAM ($151M) in its 4th week.

There is no Marvel vs DC. A rivalry means being competitive. DC still isn't there yet. And maybe they just never will be.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) November 13, 2022

[Eric Prime]

21 minutes ago, Flopped said:

The fact that the sequel to BP couldn't clear 200M domestic is proof that the general audience is moving on from Marvel. Cinema is healing. 

Okay

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think the beginning of phase 4 was the peak popularity for the MCU but with quality being down, the audience has dropped as well.

yeah def Phase 4 beginning is the peak. I think SDCC 2019 is probably the day.

[Factcheck]

19 minutes ago, Derpity said:

Don't see how anyone can classify $180m OW as "fantastic" or "impressive" when the first Black Panther opened to $202m with much lower ticket prices. And you certainly can't blame reviews.

 

Clearly there is some significant weakening of the audience here for this type of movie. Not like alarming or anything, but also definitely weakening.

1. 1st one was released before Infinity War whose trailer had Wakanda setting.
2. 1st one was first Black MCU superhero movie & became a cultural phenomenon.
3. When T'Challa died the character BP became less important character for many because they knew Shuri won't be in big 3 or even big 5 of this saga.
Despite all these WF made 180M OW

so I would say its really impressive.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Factcheck

[eddyxx]

2 hours ago, wildphantom said:

I’m actually surprised the general audience reaction to WF seems as good as it is.  
 

I still don’t think the legs will be all that though.  The reaction being more ‘yeah, I enjoyed it, but it wasn’t as good as the first one’ translating into less repeat viewings, or extreme enthusiasm for the fence sitters to actually go. 

On Facebook I’ve mostly only seen positive reactions to the movie. It’s nice to see people not complaining about a  MCU movie for a change.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Well then phase 4 in 2022 definitely isn't peak MCU either.

 

I'd argue it was stronger during the Iron Man 3 days.

eh, it was smaller than DC back then.

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Derpity said:

Don't see how anyone can classify $180m OW as "fantastic" or "impressive" when the first Black Panther opened to $202m with much lower ticket prices. And you certainly can't blame reviews.

 

Clearly there is some significant weakening of the audience here for this type of movie. Not like alarming or anything, but also definitely weakening.

 

Looking at demos, the movie was held back from exceeding the 1st due to losing the Caucasian demo, either through them stopping going to movies all together (which has been a big post-Covid trend, except for Top Gun 2) or just passing on this one.

 

Black Panther 1 OW was 35% Caucasian https://www.cbsnews.com/news/black-panther-box-office-numbers-show-representation-pays-off/ 

$202M * ,35 = $70.7M

 

Since Deadline didn't update the Caucasian demo from it's 20% (but did mention the top 2 demos), I'm gonna assume that didn't go up for Black Panther 2's Sat/Sun

 

$180M * .20 = $36M

 

The difference is $34.7M lost to OW if the same folks had come out...and that's the difference between $180 and $215M.