Weekend Thread - 9/12-11/12

[Cooper Legion]

Give us the STU

[Borobudur]

 

Quote

A year ago, you’ll remember Disney made the mistake of opening Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story on the second weekend of December ahead of Spider-Man: No Way Home and no one came at $10.5M.

 

And now a more upbeat Fablemans gross lesser than WSS.  

[TwoMisfits]

55 minutes ago, Eric Dielman said:

It's not going on Christmas Eve. There's been no announcement for that made by Disney in any of their press releases and Daddy Iger doesn't do the whole "straight to Disney+" thing.

 

Deadline announced it during Strange World's opening weekend and again in its aftermath.  Deadline COULD be wrong, or the decision could have changed since Iger was so new at that point...

 

Edit: And I should read the whole thread since I see cookie beat me to this:)...

Edited December 10, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Ken]

Remember when there was going to be a DC movie this month (first Aquaman, then Shazam)?

Remember when next week was going to be Star Wars' theatrical comeback?! Despite all that's changed since the release of TROS, that still would have felt too soon!

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Deadline announced it during Strange World's opening weekend and again in its aftermath.  Deadline COULD be wrong, or the decision could have changed since Iger was so new at that point...

 

Edit: And I should read the whole thread since I see cookie beat me to this:)...

That Deadline article came out a week before Bob Chapek was ousted. Keeping in mind that management shakeups almost always result in the ideas of the previous regime being tossed aside, it's not hard to think Disney changed their mind on that.

 

Or it could just be shadowdropped on Christmas Day. Disney's been pretty much pretending the movie doesn't exist, so why start marketing it now?

Edited December 10, 2022 by BadOlCatSylvester

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, Ken said:

Remember when there was going to be a DC movie this month (first Aquaman, then Shazam)?

Remember when next week was going to be Star Wars' theatrical comeback?! Despite all that's changed since the release of TROS, that still would have felt too soon!

Any new Star Wars movie released anytime before 2030 will most certainly at best underperform. The stench of Episode 9 is too fresh still. Another hiatus akin to the one following the prequels is necessary.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

There's an actual billboard up for I Wanna Dance With Somebody around my way, on a major thoroughfare. My mom still has cable and there are ads for it on the stuff she watches. Live sporting events still get lots of movie ads. Sony's probably targeting an over 40 audience, especially women.

[babz06]

4 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

So...the Christmas box office. Place your bets.

 

Avatar: 850M
Puss in Boots: 130M

I Wanna Dance: 75M

Babylon: 35M

Avatar 550m

puss in boots: 120m

i wanna dance with somebody: 40m

babylon: 35m

I hope they all perform better but I have low expectations. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Avatar 550m

puss in boots: 120m

i wanna dance with somebody: 40m

babylon: 35m

I hope they all perform better but I have low expectations. 

 

@M37 Looks like you're no longer the most pessimistic about A2  

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Speaking of I Wanna Dance With Somebody...

 

 

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

@M37 Looks like you're no longer the most pessimistic about A2  

Im in the same group, mainly because I am stubborn. Dont think I had posted an actual number though, still sticking to 550-600m. 

 

That said, I look forward to A2 potentially only being the 2nd (unless I've forgotten one) 400m+ original whose sequel surpasses the first. Frozen 2 being the other one. 

 

Statistically sequels to the 400m+ crowd (let alone 600m+) havent increased from part 1 to part 2. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Im in the same group, mainly because I am stubborn. Dont think I had posted an actual number though, still sticking to 550-600m. 

 

That said, I look forward to A2 potentially only being the 2nd (unless I've forgotten one) 400m+ original whose sequel surpasses the first. Frozen 2 being the other one. 

 

Statistically sequels to the 400m+ crowd (let alone 600m+) havent increased from part 1 to part 2. 

 

True and I'm on the fence about it grossing $785M (where Avatar is today) but I would be pretty surprised if it came in under $650M at this point. 

Funnily enough though, Frozen -> Frozen II might be a good comp for this.

 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, narniadis said:

Im in the same group, mainly because I am stubborn. Dont think I had posted an actual number though, still sticking to 550-600m. 

 

That said, I look forward to A2 potentially only being the 2nd (unless I've forgotten one) 400m+ original whose sequel surpasses the first. Frozen 2 being the other one. 

 

Statistically sequels to the 400m+ crowd (let alone 600m+) havent increased from part 1 to part 2. 

 

I'm staying in the same club.  I just have a hard time seeing a live action movie that seems to not have humans as the main heroes going bonkers over Christmas.  Maybe I'm missing the human on the Navi side, and I know I'm not a fantasy fan and my sci fi fan war tastes are limited, but I sit and think - isn't this like a very, very pretty Planet of the Apes sequel - humans are bad, nonhumans are good, let's go.  I know everyone LOVED those follow on movies, but they didn't do as well as people thought.

 

And as for legs, Wakanda Forever is showing us that having PLFS for a long time doesn't always actually get you much in the end.  WF is making exactly what it would have made with or without competition overall and for those screens...only certain segments of demos come out long term for a movie...that, and subscribers over and over, which WF hasn't seemed to draw and maybe Avatar 2 draws better (and I think it does there), but...

Edited December 11, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Flopped]

All these great indies struggling at the box office this weekend and Variety gives its director spotlight to Taylor Swift, a woman whose day job has yield maybe two good songs (and even those are the sonic equivalent of beige home decor from Target for white women) but is suddenly a director taking the spot of filmmakers like Sarah Polley. 

[CJohn]

6 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

So...the Christmas box office. Place your bets.

 

Avatar: 850M
Puss in Boots: 130M

I Wanna Dance: 75M

Babylon: 35M

Avatar - 665M

Puss in Boots - 145M

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 40M

Babylon - 25M

[Maggie]

21 minutes ago, Flopped said:

All these great indies struggling at the box office this weekend and Variety gives its director spotlight to Taylor Swift, a woman whose day job has yield maybe two good songs (and even those are the sonic equivalent of beige home decor from Target for white women) but is suddenly a director taking the spot of filmmakers like Sarah Polley. 

This! I don't get the Swift hype. I only like: All too Well, Blank Space, Style.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Avatar - 665M

 

 

(decided to lay off the "we were this close" gif for once)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

45 minutes ago, Flopped said:

All these great indies struggling at the box office this weekend and Variety gives its director spotlight to Taylor Swift, a woman whose day job has yield maybe two good songs (and even those are the sonic equivalent of beige home decor from Target for white women) but is suddenly a director taking the spot of filmmakers like Sarah Polley. 

 

Taylor has the respect of a lot of directors (including GDT), which is good enough for me.

[DAJK]

Avatar - 700

Puss - 175

Whitney - 100

Babylon - 40

[IronJimbo]

9 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

So...the Christmas box office. Place your bets.

 

Avatar: 850M
Puss in Boots: 130M

I Wanna Dance: 75M

Babylon: 35M

1.1b