Weekend Thread - 9/12-11/12

[Maggie]

I'm thinking how a sequel to a movie with over 700M performed. Do you guys think if Chadwick (RIP) didn't  die, the sequel would have increased?

[Eric Loves Rey]

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, Maggie said:

I'm thinking how a sequel to a movie with over 700M performed. Do you guys think if Chadwick (RIP) didn't  die, the sequel would have increased?

No. It was always going to go down.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Eric Dielman said:

No. It was always going to go down.

Yeah. If A2 manages to increase, then it's truly a special, singular case

[XXR vs XXR]

24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I'm thinking how a sequel to a movie with over 700M performed. Do you guys think if Chadwick (RIP) didn't  die, the sequel would have increased?

 

23 minutes ago, Eric Dielman said:

No. It was always going to go down.

 

Yea it would have went down no matter what, it just would have went down less. Probably $500-550M DOM instead of the $435-450M it's going to do. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I'm thinking how a sequel to a movie with over 700M performed. Do you guys think if Chadwick (RIP) didn't  die, the sequel would have increased?

No. BP was a cultural event. It was more than just a movie.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

I'm thinking how a sequel to a movie with over 700M performed. Do you guys think if Chadwick (RIP) didn't  die, the sequel would have increased?

 

I'm going to break away from consensus and say "we don't know".

 

If Chadwick had still been alive, the tenor of the film and the themes of it would have probably been much different.  Maybe something that wasn't quite as heavy in subject matter could have propelled it. The marketing of the film would have been 100% different, that's for sure.  Even if it was always gonna be a more downbeat film (middle chapter syndrome), it wouldn't have had the cloud over it or the restrained marketing.

 

I do agree it would have been difficult.  But... I dunno.  Think people are being a bit too certain here. Maybe put it at around a 10 to 15 percent chance.  

 

Problem is, without knowing what type of film they were gonna make, and how that would have been connected to other projects, it's almost an impossible question to answer.

 

[Verrows]

9 hours ago, babz06 said:

Avatar 550m

puss in boots: 120m

i wanna dance with somebody: 40m

babylon: 35m

I hope they all perform better but I have low expectations. 

That's just depressing.

[narniadis]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm going to break away from consensus and say "we don't know".

 

If Chadwick had still been alive, the tenor of the film and the themes of it would have probably been much different.  Maybe something that wasn't quite as heavy in subject matter could have propelled it. The marketing of the film would have been 100% different, that's for sure.  Even if it was always gonna be a more downbeat film (middle chapter syndrome), it wouldn't have had the cloud over it or the restrained marketing.

 

I do agree it would have been difficult.  But... I dunno.  Think people are being a bit too certain here. Maybe put it at around a 10 to 15 percent chance.  

 

Problem is, without knowing what type of film they were gonna make, and how that would have been connected to other projects, it's almost an impossible question to answer.

 

Statistics and records are made to be broken, just feel that after 20 years of tracking this stuff the likelihood of BP2 increasing in that capacity would literally have been lightning in a bottle 2.0. It MAY have been more akin to Jumanji 2 and 3 in that the drop was about 10% or so, but even then thats again an outlier. 

 

Definitely a case of the "never to be known" as you point out. 

[Legion Again]

550-650 probbaly the base case for if it was a "normal sequel" (i.e. with Chadwick). Still a fair admit drop but more in the tdkr/sm2/AoU range rather than the current ~50%

[Fanboy]

16 hours ago, babz06 said:

Avatar 550m

puss in boots: 120m

i wanna dance with somebody: 40m

babylon: 35m

I hope they all perform better but I have low expectations. 

This is pratically worst case scenario for every one of them. If this ends up happening I think it's safe to say cinema is dying and nothing will bring it back. 

[Nero]

11 hours ago, Maggie said:

I'm thinking how a sequel to a movie with over 700M performed. Do you guys think if Chadwick (RIP) didn't  die, the sequel would have increased?

If Chadwick was alive then there's a definite possibility of grossing over 700 M because the story would have been different which coogler had to scrap. And it would have grossed minimum 500M domestic 

[jedijake]

If BPWF was THE Christmas release in any year, we would have seen MUCH different numbers and be having a very different discussion about it. Surpassing the first one? No. But possibly closer to $600 million? Sure, probably. But, again, that is if it were the uncontested Christmas blockbuster of the year.

[Valonqar]

It wouldn't have grossed 700M take that to the bank. Much is made of cultural impact but Infinity War gave BP a big boost too. So cultural impact wouldn't be replicated (see Star Wars beyond TFA) and there would be no Avengers build up. Means it would have dropped. Most likely not as bad as when you wait over 4 years only to get a pilot for Iron Heart but it would have dropped enough.

 

 

[Grebacio]

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

10 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

 

 

 

Best per theater average of 2022 and IIRC, the second best of post-Covid times after Licorice Pizza. Aronofsky and Fraser have their fans, and A24 built up curiosity by not revealing much footage ahead of time. The weekend was incredibly empty, so those NY/LA multiplexes had the room for more showtimes. The situation will change a bit with Avatar 2 but one strong week at the box office (and the positive publicity) is more than you can say a lot of this fall’s awards hopefuls...

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

We'll see if The Whale can find any sort of traction in wide release but it would be a pleasant surprise if it somehow ends up being the biggest of all this fourth quarter's Oscar hopefuls (I don't have faith in Women Talking making any coins either), even with a likely sub-$20M total.

Edited December 11, 2022 by filmlover

[GOGODanca]

 

 

[Borobudur]

Date	Rank	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Dec 9, 2022	2	$2,420,000	+140%	-50%	3,723	$650	$20,414,315	8
Dec 10, 2022	2	$3,890,000	+61%	-27%	3,723	$1,045	$24,304,315	9
Dec 11, 2022	2	$2,390,000	-39%	-26%	3,723	$642	$26,694,315	10

 

Strong hold for VN! Hope the movie can stay alive throughout year end holiday season and become a Kingsman of 2022 as action comedy. 

 

6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

 

 

Still on track for 800m? It gonna need some strong holiday boost in domestic market. The overseas is pretty much done by next week.

[filmlover]

2	(2)	Violent Night	Universal	$8,700,000	-35%	3,723	+41	$2,337	$26,694,315	2
3	(3)	Strange World	Walt Disney	$3,600,000	-29%	3,560	-614	$1,011	$30,453,692	3
4	(4)	The Menu	Searchlight …	$2,700,000	-22%	2,710	-100	$996	$29,027,758	4
-	(7)	Black Adam	Warner Bros.	$1,340,000	-14%	2,143	-88	$625	$166,873,377	8
-	(8)	The Fabelmans	Universal	$1,180,000	-7%	973	+335	$1,213	$7,329,966	5
-	(10)	Ticket to Paradise	Universal	$600,000	-30%	1,394	-321	$430	$67,514,205	8
-	(11)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$445,000	-34%	1,223	-641	$364	$718,519,000	29

 

-

N

Empire of Light

Searchlight …

$160,000

110

$1,455

$160,000

1

 

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for December 9, 2022 (the-numbers.com)