Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Covid completely killed theatralic animation. Kids had to sit 2 years on their couches and consumed every streaming plattfom there is and parents noticed. Now it has become a cultural habit for familys that animated movies are watched on streaming plattforms on their home couches. Thats atleast my theory.

 

Minions 2 is a big exception for this, but its success may have been a fluke that can be explained by the giant popularity of the yellow things. I do think theatralic animation overall has been pretty much killed of by the Covid years.

 

In this case, i ofc would be extremely happy to be wrong.

It's about the right movie..... 

[reddevil19]

9 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Spider-Verse 2 is probably going to be a Titan AE-level flop. If not even Shrek can bring in families, then I don't see how a niche movie like Spider-Verse is going to do the job.

 

Sonic 3 should still do well provided Paramount keeps the budget at a reasonable level like the previous movies. The diehard Sonic fans should carry it to another solid $400M worldwide total.

It's not really Shrek, is it? And the brand had been diminishing in any case. The first Puss in Boots did 150 dom if I remember right. Not exactly Despicable Me levels, is it? 

And Spiderverse has...well, Spider-man. It's not going to be playing exclusively to your typical animated crowd, which has now apparently moved mostly to streaming. 

I don't think it's gonna be gigantic, but it will do well, I think. 

 

At least the budget for Poos 2 is relatively low. 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There was also the gigantic Tiktok trend of Gentleminions that I think really saved the movie. It'd probably otherwise top out at around $400M worldwide, but said trend got a lot of people to take interest in the movie and push it to being an almost-billion dollar hit.

I can assure you a TikTok trend didn’t generate $500m of customers. 
 

TikTok trends don’t last long enough. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There was also the gigantic Tiktok trend of Gentleminions that I think really saved the movie. It'd probably otherwise top out at around $400M worldwide, but said trend got a lot of people to take interest in the movie and push it to being an almost-billion dollar hit.

Don't think Tik Tok would push a movie from 400 to 900.

 

It got genuine interest.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I also just realized that if Puss in Boots 2 does indeed flop, then it'll go to VOD on January 6th. It won't have any staying power.

[stripe]

Rollercoaster days

Meh Monday. Great Tuesday. Now, it's time to press panic button.

Anyways, I still can't see Avatwo under 60M 2nd weekend. More like 62-65M

 

[JWR]

Part of it could be the weather. The other part could be that Shrek nostalgia isn't as strong as some people thought. 

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There was also the gigantic Tiktok trend of Gentleminions that I think really saved the movie. It'd probably otherwise top out at around $400M worldwide, but said trend got a lot of people to take interest in the movie and push it to being an almost-billion dollar hit.

Nah. Gentleminions would not have impacted the families with kids that are skipping every other animated film in cinemas.

The overseas success is down to the Minions themselves being very broadly appealing. Animation can be less impacted by cross-border cultural differences when it plays young in any case, but Minions is on a whole different level. It's almost exclusively physical on a Laurel & Hardy level, with nonsense gobbledegook dialogue and sound effects, that consistently hits with kids internationally. And that style of comedy also means that when your audience grows out of it, there is a new audience already there, without needing inbuilt knowledge of the series, but rather the yellow shits themsleves, helped by the broad appeal and large market presence of the toys (instantly recognisable shape, large eyes, goofy faces - broad child appeal). 

 

 

[JWR]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

Nah. Gentleminions would not have impacted the families with kids that are skipping every other animated film in cinemas.

The overseas success is down to the Minions themselves being very broadly appealing. Animation can be less impacted by cross-border cultural differences when it plays young in any case, but Minions is on a whole different level. It's almost exclusively physical on a Laurel & Hardy level, with nonsense gobbledegook dialogue and sound effects, that consistently hits with kids internationally. And that style of comedy also means that when your audience grows out of it, there is a new audience already there, without needing inbuilt knowledge of the series, but rather the yellow shits themsleves, helped by the broad appeal and large market presence of the toys (instantly recognisable shape, large eyes, goofy faces - broad child appeal). 

 

 

 

And nostalgia. There are kids who saw the first Despicable Me years ago who have a fondness for those little guys.

[IronJimbo]

cringe weatherstorm

Edited December 22, 2022 by IronJimbo

[BadOlCatSylvester]

4 minutes ago, stripe said:

Rollercoaster days

Meh Monday. Great Tuesday. Now, it's time to press panic button.

Anyways, I still can't see Avatwo under 60M 2nd weekend. More like 62-65M

 

Even a $60M second weekend sounds like a Herculean challenge for Avatar.

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

And nostalgia. There are kids who saw the first Despicable Me years ago who have a fondness for those little guys.

I wouldn't necessarily say nostalgia per se - as I mentioned, the Minions have been omnipresent in toy shops or kids' marketing throughout the last few years. Hell, my bf does homemade cakes on the side, and the number of Minion themed cakes over the last few years is insane. They've basically not gone away from the zeitgeist for their target audiences, whereas something like Shrek has. 

 

But ya, they do have a way of weaseling their way into people's hearts and minds. Great creation. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by reddevil19

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, JWR said:

Part of it could be the weather. The other part could be that Shrek nostalgia isn't as strong as some people thought. 

 

Though Puss in Boots isnt Shrek himself. I still actually think a fifth Shrek movie could do bonkers if its well-made. Thats like everyones childhood right there, people would come.

[Hatebox]

Definitely turning into a run that pleases no-one. Even if it has an awful second weekend there won't be any meltdowns because everyone will know why.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Definitely turning into a run that pleases no-one. Even if it has an awful second weekend there won't be any meltdowns because everyone will know why.

I dunno about that. If it ends around Rogue 1, then I think the haters will still be pleased. It's definitely a movie where these gigantic numbers can't be viewed in a vacuum, but relative to cost, expectations and its predecessor. Its gonna be a financial success, but when it drops a billion from the first movie, I think the haters will be satisfied lol. 

[TwoMisfits]

38 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If I were Nintendo I'd start worrying about the Mario movie.

 

Nope, I'd hire the Minions 2 marketing team...

[Shanks]

16 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Don't think Tik Tok would push a movie from 400 to 900.

 

It got genuine interest.

 

Minion merchandise is very popular with kids... by Kids, I mean 3-6 year old.

[Cap]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

how long does this snowstorm last then, if the worst of it is over by christmas day it won't be so bad

The storm is only half the battle. The real bitch is the clean up.

 

Up here in Maine, a foot of snow is another Tuesday. It’ll take a day plow and sand the roads. We’ll be back in business next day. Even when we lose power, the major metros get it back within like 24 hours, and the rural regions like 24-72 max. All standard stuff.

 

Only imagine putting that on a region that doesn’t keep plow trucks and snowblowers as glorified toys.

 

And then there’s the real secret sauce to mucking everything up: when places like Florida have a hurricane, or Texas had the cold freeze, and all the power went out, the utility workers and trucks rally:

 

But if the entire country is dealing with this as the same time, it might take way longer for infrastructure to get fully back up and running, if everyone is running triage. 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

14 minutes ago, JWR said:

Part of it could be the weather. The other part could be that Shrek nostalgia isn't as strong as some people thought. 

You need to have Shrek in order to bank on Shrek nostalgia at first place.

 

You didn't, you had Puss.

[Last Man Standing]

37 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Spider-Verse 2 is probably going to be a Titan AE-level flop. If not even Shrek can bring in families, then I don't see how a niche movie like Spider-Verse is going to do the job.

 

Sonic 3 should still do well provided Paramount keeps the budget at a reasonable level like the previous movies. The diehard Sonic fans should carry it to another solid $400M worldwide total.

Spider-Man is a bit bigger than Puss in Boots, culturally speaking.