Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[BadOlCatSylvester]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Marvels is going under Black Adam WW. You read it here first.

Should I start a club? I'm feeling particularly bold, especially when franchise/superhero fatigue is in.

[filmlover]

I still wouldn't rule out The Marvels moving to the holidays with Disney having nothing during that corridor besides Wish (although I suspect they'll give Jeff Nichols' The Bikeriders with Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, and Tom Hardy a year-end release). 

[YM!]

Tbh Barbie reminds me so much of Detective Pikachu, I’m hesitant to make a prediction on it.

[cookie]

Barbie feels like the kind of thing that people expect the world out of and then they're Surprised Pikachu when RT is at like 65% and it "only" makes $140m domestic.

 

So basically like Detective PIkachu.

[John Marston]

Barbie is massively over predicted. I’m not sure who the audience is for this. 

[Factcheck]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

The Marvels is going under Black Adam WW. You read it here first.

Not if they announce the cast of Avengers: Kang Dynasty before The Marvels, as why would MCU fans skip Captain Marvel, who is most likely going to be one of the big three? Aren't these the same people who are excited for Ant-Man 3 because of Avengers 5? But if Marvel Studios keeps them in ignorance, then definitely under BA worldwide is possible.

[YM!]

Tbh with comic con that weekend prior to The Marvels, I can see them announcing the cast of Kang Dynasty to help build up tickets sales but I expected Marvels to dominate that comic con.

Edited January 1, 2023 by YM!

[YM!]

33 minutes ago, cookie said:

Barbie feels like the kind of thing that people expect the world out of and then they're Surprised Pikachu when RT is at like 65% and it "only" makes $140m domestic.

 

So basically like Detective PIkachu.

I expect much better reviews because of Gerwig and a higher total but I can see a smaller than expected OW like 35-45m and everyone dooms and glooms but has very solid legs and goes to 175-200m. I think 50m is the ceiling OW wise, this seems like more a WOM affair.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Tbh with comic con that weekend prior to The Marvels, I can see them announcing the cast of Kang Dynasty to help build up tickets sales.

if they want people to be hyped for it they should just combine the two things and make what would be the comic con panel the post credits scene. fans like announcements of projects more than they like the projects so this is a good idea.

[Maggie]

27 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Barbie is massively over predicted. I’m not sure who the audience is for this. 

The leads are too old for a kids' movie. Are adult audience really gonna bite and watch a Barbie movie?

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

I expect much better reviews because of Gerwig and a higher total but I can see a smaller than expected OW like 35-45m and everyone dooms and glooms but has very solid legs and goes to 175-200m. I think 50m is the ceiling OW wise, this seems like more a WOM affair.

I've been expecting it to play like a slice of female-targeted summer counterprogramming that opens to "only" good numbers but has strong legs through the fall ever since it was dated for that spot so no doom and gloom from me over that type of run. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

Barbie is massively over predicted. I’m not sure who the audience is for this. 

 

The possible audience is 3 fold:

 

Barbie fans young and old - mainly women 25-85

Little girls 3-10

The gentleminions male and female crew of 13-25 who want to dress up and have fun and relive their youth

 

It's this last group that is both the largest and most unpredictable.  Barbie's gonna be really hard to predict, b/c you don't know if it will show up or reject the film.  

 

It's 100% NOT a male 25+ movie (except for those dads and Barbie fans there may be)...

[Verrows]

5 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

July 7

Insidious: Fear the Dark: With the return of the family from the first two movies (though I don’t think Lin Shaye is in this? That’s weird), there’s some intrigue, arguably even nostalgic memories, among the horror fandom for this new entry. The Last Key made about 67M, and I think those numbers feel right. Though it is a bit reliant on the film’s quality, and we won’t know how good Patrick Wilson is as a director until we see the movie. 28/65 (2.32x)

As one of the people betting big on MI7, I'd be more than happy with this.

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

if they want people to be hyped for it they should just combine the two things and make what would be the comic con panel the post credits scene. fans like announcements of projects more than they like the projects so this is a good idea.

With Marvel seemingly using that end of July date for years to come, yeah it stands to reason they're going to use comic con in a variety of different ways as a launching pad for whatever movie is coming out right after.

[TMP]

Eternals numbers would be good for the marvels

[babz06]

Oppenheimer vs Barbie 

 

I still think Oppenheimer is going to be the winner of that duel. Barbie looks like a film Twitter movie, which scares me, they are a volatile audience that’s unreliable. 

[WrathOfHan]

July 7

 

Insidious: Fear the Dark: Returning to the original characters is one of the only things the franchise could be doing now so long after the last film. The franchise has always been a solid performer, and there's no reason for that to change with a prime summer release and empty horror market. 35/90 (2.57x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 14

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One: Coming off renewed interest in the series and Top Gun smashing records, Dead Reckoning stands to increase a decent amount from Fallout. However, the current release date puts it in a tricky spot two weeks after Indy and a week before Oppenheimer/Barbie when it will lose all PLFs. That along with being advertised as a two parter might lead to more frontloading than usual for the MI franchise. It'll be fine in the end, but if anyone blinks from July, it'll be this one. 90/245 (2.72x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 21

 

Barbie: Unsurprisingly, audiences love the teaser, and the memes march on. The real test will be if all four quads actually show up beyond internet hype. I don't doubt Greta Gerwig to deliver a quality feature, but the higher it opens, the smaller legs will be (and vice versa). I'll go modest for now, but the potential for a higher (and lower) gross exists. 55/220 (4x)

 

Oppenheimer: Unlike Barbie, Nolan's box office record has been consistent enough for over a decade now to know the memes aren't over-inflating hype, and Oppenheimer shouldn't stray far from his recent dramas. While the film's subject matter feels out of place for a summer release, the nuclear sequence(s) sure don't, and marketing has been teasing the detonation appropriately. While it'll ultimately lose the OW battle to Barbie, this will have a nice leggy run into September if not October. 40/170 (4.25x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 28

 

The Marvels: While I don't buy the under 200M talk just yet, I think it'll be the lowest grossing MCU film this year both domestically and worldwide. Like Ant-Man, relying heavily on a Disney+ series for the film's story won't cross over well for many viewers, especially when Ms. Marvel's viewership was nowhere near Loki's. Captain Marvel also hasn't had a consistent presence in the MCU since Endgame with her first film largely relying on Avengers/overall MCU goodwill. A big drop is coming; how big remains to be seen. 70/200 (2.86x)