New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Elessar]

9 minutes ago, cory said:

You mean when A1 had New Year's Day? 

 

Yeah, it is a bit apples vs oranges. But the point i was making is, Avatar 1 will probably have the bigger 3rd weekend so it's already making up ground. And that should continue / accelerate in the upcoming weeks.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Elessar

[filmlover]

For the second year in a row we have a mega-blockbuster and animated sequel (Spider-Man/Sing, Avatar/Puss in Boots) as the only movies bringing in crowds over the holidays. Though this year's marketplace might be even weaker overall since Whitney and Babylon combined are looking to struggle to meet the individual grosses of any of Matrix/West Side Story/King's Man.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

 

Yeah, it is a bit apples vs oranges. But the point i was making is, Avatar 1 will probably have the bigger 3rd weekend so it's already making up ground. And that should continue in the upcoming weeks.

A2 takes the 4day comfortably! Gound gained for A2 once again.

 

As I've been saying for a while, the 4th to the 9th is going to determine a lot

[JustLurking]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

Yeah, it is a bit apples vs oranges. But the point i was making is, Avatar 1 will probably have the bigger 3rd weekend so it's already making up ground. And that should continue in the upcoming weeks.

Not really sure about A1 having the bigger 3rd weekend - just dropping the exact same as R1 lands this at 66.4, but since it's been outpacing it daily the entire week at this point and feels more weekend-heavy, doing it again on the weekend doesn't seem like that hard a task

[AN9815]

I have watched 'Avatar: The Way of Water' twice in cinemas over this holiday period and I thought it was a pretty fantastic movie that sets up 'Avatar 3' in a big way. Really glad it is doing big numbers, it is a beast overseas. 

 

Regarding the "Avatar has no cultural impact..." comments I think that is likely due to the fact that the first Avatar was released in 2009 where social media was still not that big. I agree that it is maybe not on Twitter/TikTok as much as other franchises (Marvel, DC, Harry Potter...) but I think outside of it Avatar is pretty big. For instance, my family is not big on fantasy/sci-fi movies but they wanted to watch Avatar 2 and really enjoyed the film whereas they never come with me to watch a Marvel/Star Wars movie. Now, I don't think they are going to rewatch the movie over an over at home but I am pretty sure they'll be back for the next one. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by AN9815

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, AN9815 said:

I have watched 'Avatar: The Way of Water' twice in cinemas over this holiday period and I thought it was a pretty fantastic movie that sets up 'Avatar 3' in a big way. Really glad it is doing big numbers, it is a beast overseas. 

 

Regarding the "Avatar has no cultural impact..." comments I think that is likely due to the fact that the first Avatar was released in 2009 where social media was still not that big. I agree that it is maybe not on Twitter/TikTok as much as other franchises (Marvel, DC, Harry Potter...) but I think outside of it Avatar is pretty big. For instance, my family is not big on fantasy/sci-fi movies but they wanted to watch Avatar 2 and really enjoyed the film whereas they never come with me to watch a Marvel/Star Wars movie. Now, I don't think they are going to rewatch the movie over an over at home but I am pretty sure they'll be back for the next one. 

 

Maybe a CONTROVERSIAL take, but:

 

I think Avatar has such a big appeal because it has such cliche storys. You literally dont need to know anything about the world or the characters to enjoy the film. Franchises like Marvel or Star Wars rely on people knowing facts about these univereses to quite a big margin, but Avatar? Its a pretty fantasy world with blue people.

 

Thats it. Its blankness on a storylevel i actually think makes it work so well for the masses. Its 3 hours of pure escapism.

[cookie]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

 

Did not know this existed, got recommended on Youtube (likely because of Avatar's release). It's from Ubisoft so it's definitely gonna have some usual Ubisoft tropes (open world exploration, outposts, climbing things to reveal parts of the map, hunting and collecting animals/plants to craft various things) but I generally like Ubisoft games so excited about this one. Unfortunately no gameplay footage has been revealed till now. 

The studio that’s making this is situated right across the street from my old high school. I’ve been to their premises a few times.

[Alex SciChannel]

Universal/Dreamworks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish remains the runner-up champ at the holiday box office with a $6.46M Friday, +70% from a week ago, $15.95M 3-day, +28%, a 4-day $21.1M and a running total of $65.5M.

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Yeah, nothing is impossible, but the weird trajectory this movie has been on makes it hard to pin point something specific except extrapolating based on the numbers we get.  

 

I keep thinking about @M37 fantastic chart and how things were behaving in a typical predictable fashion up until Christmas and then it just took off, like a fucking rocket.  Maybe it sustains that and reaches your lofty goals, but maybe it was just a big holiday boost and it cools of after everyone goes back to work/school?

 

It's definitely made the overall run and January a lot more exciting that's for sure!

 

I know we’ve mostly been following the top chart number (or 2), but one thing I noticed that is BPWF is following a pretty similar trajectory as Avatwo since Xmas

 

Avatwo = +96/+11/-25/-15/+2/+21

BPWF  = +119/+17/-11/-10/-1/+14

 

A2’s Fri is 76% of Mon and 119% of Wed BPWF is 90% & 113% (RO was down to 57% of Mon)

 

It may prove to be this last week is more of a holiday boon (plus storm bounce back) - perhaps followed by a January deflation - rather than a permanent change in trajectory. To me, the next 4-6 days will be crucial in that regard, to see if the gains vs RO remain high or start to come back down 

[Walt Disney]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Don't worry about it, it's difficult to survive through negativity.

It was almost like it was an advanced tactic to overinflate projections of the opening weekend so that when it came in at $135m mentally you already think A2 is in a bad spot.

The most similair movie to A2 box office wise will be the first Avatar, I don't know why that's so hard for people to see.

It's a sequel? Well not really is it. There's a big difference between a sequel to a 13yo movie that has been out of the spotlight intentionally, and the fifth movie from the same franchise in one year and #35 of the total franchise.

It's very possible that the only day that Avatar 1 is above A2 in dailies from now is today and tomorrow because of New Years Eve + New Years Day. A2 can simply from now just make more than A1 every single day until the end of it's run.

People will tell you that's impossible, why? Because they refuse to see
 

This is true. This will not play like a sequel. The same way that Top:Gun Maverick did not play as a sequel. The gap between films is too long. That does not mean that Avatar 2 will out-gross Spider-Man: No Way Home, but it also does not mean that it won’t. It does mean that Rogue One was never a good comparison.

 

This movie’s run will start to become more clear after this 3rd weekend, which was always going to be the case. Then we’ll see how leggy this movie will be. If strong legs do develop, it will be fun to go back and read a lot of the early negative comments again.

[Sheldon Cr]

21 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

2bil is locked imo. The weekly drops it would need to miss 2bil would be just too high imo.

2b is locked. And I think we might just hit 2.4b+ ww and over 760m domestic. This is just inspiring and making me happy with all A2 faced.

And its.still finding a way brother stuart and brother jimbo 

 

This is Our land!

[Gkalaitza]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Maybe a CONTROVERSIAL take, but:

 

I think Avatar has such a big appeal because it has such cliche storys. You literally dont need to know anything about the world or the characters to enjoy the film. Franchises like Marvel or Star Wars rely on people knowing facts about these univereses to quite a big margin, but Avatar? Its a pretty fantasy world with blue people.

 

Thats it. Its blankness on a storylevel i actually think makes it work so well for the masses. Its 3 hours of pure escapism.

Cliche isnt the right word for what you say here . Marvel and Star Wars having a bunch of tie ins from past and contemporary materials within the same universe and built in lore relevant to whats happening that up the barrier for entry has little to do with their stories being more or less complex than Avatar. But that also will be more so the Case for Avatar 4 compared to 1 and 2

 

You can argue also that Avatar's story and themes are more universal both culture wise and between age demographics than the big majority of Marvel and SW movies but that still isnt because the latter are "more challenging" for the audience in a vacuum

 

You can also argue that aiming for an immersive audiovisual experience and escape to pandora makes what you say true but again that doesnt mean the story as a general concept is "lighter" compared to other blockbusters. Unless you narrow down on definitions 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Walt Disney]

1 hour ago, Bruce said:

DOM Fri 24.4m

TGM is in Danger

Flying right into the danger zone

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

2b is locked. And I think we might just hit 2.4b+ ww and over 760m domestic. This is just inspiring and making me happy with all A2 faced.

And its.still finding a way brother stuart and brother jimbo 

 

This is Our land!

[Sheldon Cr]

57 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

1	(1)	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$24,440,000	+21%	+27%	4,202	$5,816	$382,557,914	15
2	(2)	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal	$6,460,000	+13%	+70%	4,121	$1,568	$50,867,330	10
3	(3)	Black Panther: Wakanda Fo…	Walt Disney	$1,820,000	+14%	+84%	2,310	$788	$434,965,653	50

 

Kinda sad that Puss in Boots didn't have a better increase than Avatar today as previous days it was holding stronger than it. But I am very glad with this result and hopefully this is enough for PiB to surpass 16M +30% this weekend.

 

That being said, glad Avatar is doing great and should actually have a higher third weekend then second. +4.6% from 2nd to third if it holds like Rogue One.

Titanic in sight. And who knows if the domestic goes high and os. WOW could A2 get End game WW...Alex exciting to see where Avatar 2 goes. Especially if they re-release it in china 👍😎

[XXR & Friends]

Reminder to everyone that today is the 3 biggest bowl games of the college football season (not including the championship which is 2 weeks away). They come on one after another and the average viewership for these 3 games will be in the 15-20M range. So IF today comes in slightly deflated, that would probably be the reason why. 

 

[Dale Cooper]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

It may prove to be this last week is more of a holiday boon (plus storm bounce back) - perhaps followed by a January deflation - rather than a permanent change in trajectory. To me, the next 4-6 days will be crucial in that regard, to see if the gains vs RO remain high or start to come back down 

Sure, it could be so. But the key difference here is that small to mid sized movies has that kind of trajectory around Christmas every year. Movies grossing $20m a day doesn't. Ever. Except, well, Avatar.

[The Dark Alfred]

That is another terrific day for A2. Very strong. A2 looks comfortable ahead of RO in the long-term forecast and positioned itself at a good shot at 600m.

 

WATERSO SHOWDOWN  - AVATAR 2 VS ROGUE ONE

 

DAY 14: (SATURDAY) AVATAR 24.4m

DAY 14: (SATURDAY) ROGUE ONE 18.2m

 

WATER TEMP: WARM (+6.2m)

CUME: AVATAR 382.6m  VS ROGUE ONE 393.6m

 

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 150.9m

WATER FLOW:  603M

Edited December 31, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Walt Disney said:

It does mean that Rogue One was never a good comparison.

The dailies were within 7% of each other all but 2 non-storm deflated days (OD and Xmas) through 12 days of release - the comp was fine
 

They were probably going to diverge at some point, but it’s the speed and size of that break which is making it retroactively look like they were never close (fwiw, though differing holidays make it less clean, the same sudden break is present even when using TFA or any other holiday comp)

[jedijake]

27 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Maybe a CONTROVERSIAL take, but:

 

I think Avatar has such a big appeal because it has such cliche storys. You literally dont need to know anything about the world or the characters to enjoy the film. Franchises like Marvel or Star Wars rely on people knowing facts about these univereses to quite a big margin, but Avatar? Its a pretty fantasy world with blue people.

 

Thats it. Its blankness on a storylevel i actually think makes it work so well for the masses. Its 3 hours of pure escapism.

That's actually VERY true! That, and the fact that as of right now, Avatar has pretty much a 100% monopoly on the technology/visuals it uses. If other studios understood this and put forth what is needed to give movie goers experiences worth paying for which is what movie theaters desperately need. If TGM and Ava2 showed us anything, it shows or at least hints at what future movies need to be successful.

Edited December 31, 2022 by jedijake