M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

WOM is/is not helping the film so much as an absolute lack of competition. Only two films released during its first month will finish above $50M. That’s a pathetic lack of competition during the holidays so the main film is able to maintain screens and suck up all sorts of business as there are no other options.

It's both. Wakanda Forever had basically no competition, yet that only did so much to help its mediocre legs

Edited January 8, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[Wafflecakes]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

WOM is/is not helping the film so much as an absolute lack of competition. Only two films released during its first month will finish above $50M. That’s a pathetic lack of competition during the holidays so the main film is able to maintain screens and suck up all sorts of business as there are no other options.

This is just silly.

 

It isn't 1986 anymore. If there isn't something people want to see in the the theaters they can just.... stay home and stream any amount of super high quality content on their TV's and sound systems which have been approaching theater grade for a decade. All with dramatically less cost and more convenience. 

 

The only narrative I will buy on lack of competition is that the lack of major releases will leave A2 in theaters longer than it might have otherwise. Especially with PLF. Even that I only half buy though since historically Jan and Feb are weak months that lack competition anyways. I think A1 and A2 have very comparable levels of competitions in their respective time frames.

[Cmasterclay]

This year should theoretically establish some depth, though I still think more and more of the movies that would have once typically done a decent 30m so are now gonna be DOA under 10m types (Renfield, House Party, those types). Also weird how barren the September to November stretch is (sorry Duneheads) when March to August is so loaded. And that's before Exorcist moves. Something needs to take a late September date ASAP.

[Brainbug]

32 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Welp. I'm officially on the "Over JW DOM" train. No one tell Brainbug.

 

Disgusting.

 

Anyway, that OS number for Avatar is as disgusting as that quoted post, but in an amazingly great way. Holds are unreal. Im now thinking it will outgross Titanic WW easily and could gun for 2,25 - 2,3B WW.

 

Regarding this international weekend, i especially want to point out the Germany number because Avatar 2 - depending on actuals - has a good shot at making the biggest 4th weekend in admissions of any movie ever in Germany

 

That is unbelievable for everyone who follows the often frankly depressing german box office!

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I'm not diminishing anything, in fact i was replying to someone else who started it.

 

And yes i think if TGM and A2 grossed the same in the US, TGM would be more impressive due to the lack of 3D premium.

I'm just saying the US is one market, the world is the world.

 

Agreed of course if they gross the same. That said, I don’t think it would take that far over TGM DOM for A2 to win in admissions. 3D is not a big thing whatsoever anymore like it was with A1, and I’d imagine the bulk of inflation with A2 is from PLF. TGM also had massive PLF inflation, maybe even more than A2 does. So something to keep in mind. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

This year should theoretically establish some depth, though I still think more and more of the movies that would have once typically done a decent 30m so are now gonna be DOA under 10m types (Renfield, House Party, those types). Also weird how barren the September to November stretch is (sorry Duneheads) when March to August is so loaded. And that's before Exorcist moves. Something needs to take a late September date ASAP.

I mentioned yesterday that Transformers should really move to late September because it's bound to be eaten alive in June. Little to no competition there (Kraven the Hunter won't be a threat to anything if it's another Morbius).

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Agreed of course if they gross the same. That said, I don’t think it would take that far over TGM DOM for A2 to win in admissions. 3D is not a big thing whatsoever anymore like it was with A1, and I’d imagine the bulk of inflation with A2 is from PLF. TGM also had massive PLF inflation, maybe even more than A2 does. So something to keep in mind. 

Top Gun Maverick started losing PLFs at a large degree from the third weekend, Avatar has lost a tiny number in comparison

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I mentioned yesterday that Transformers should really move to late September because it's bound to be eaten alive in June. Little to no competition there (Kraven the Hunter won't be a threat to anything if it's another Morbius).

I wonder if it can go for Labor Day weekend. Shang-Chi proved that people will still come if the product is compelling enough.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

Top Gun Maverick started losing PLFs at a large degree from the third weekend, Avatar has lost a tiny number in comparison

But the demand for TGM in PLF was rabid. Seemed like it was selling those showings out constantly, probably bc people knew there was limited time. It hasn’t seemed like PLF sellouts have been that prominent for A2 so far, but I’m not using concrete large data samples to say that either. 

[M37]

10 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

WOM is/is not helping the film so much as an absolute lack of competition. Only two films released during its first month will finish above $50M. That’s a pathetic lack of competition during the holidays so the main film is able to maintain screens and suck up all sorts of business as there are no other options.

While yes some of the success can be attributed to lack of competition, the audience always retains the option to just stay home - as they have many times in the post-pandemic period when there were a lack of/weak releases - and yet that they are still actively choosing to commit the time and money to go see it does speak to WOM

 

We'll know better this upcoming week just how strong the WOM factor is, but can't really deny that it exists at this point

[The GOAT]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mentioned yesterday that Transformers should really move to late September because it's bound to be eaten alive in June. Little to no competition there (Kraven the Hunter won't be a threat to anything if it's another Morbius).

Transformer need not fear the ants and termites. It will become 2023's highest grossing film. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I wonder if it can go for Labor Day weekend. Shang-Chi proved that people will still come if the product is compelling enough.

Shang-Chi was also Marvel so clearly it was the exception for that weekend. Equalizer 3 is set for Labor Day weekend this year so I imagine that will determine if the weekend will remain a dump frame (or making National Cinema Day an annual thing) going forward.

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Top Gun Maverick started losing PLFs at a large degree from the third weekend,

And it also got some back multiple times through its run.

[JustLurking]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Disgusting.

 

Anyway, that OS number for Avatar is as disgusting as that quoted post, but in an amazingly great way. Holds are unreal. Im now thinking it will outgross Titanic WW easily and could gun for 2,25 - 2,3B WW.

 

Regarding this international weekend, i especially want to point out the Germany number because Avatar 2 - depending on actuals - has a good shot at making the biggest 4th weekend in admissions of any movie ever in Germany

 

That is unbelievable for everyone who follows the often frankly depressing german box office!

Real reason the UK left the EU is clearly that they didn't like avatar enough to be with the rest of us

[CaptNathanBrittles]

21 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

WOM is/is not helping the film so much as an absolute lack of competition. Only two films released during its first month will finish above $50M. That’s a pathetic lack of competition during the holidays so the main film is able to maintain screens and suck up all sorts of business as there are no other options.

 

BLACK ADAM, no competition. $400m.

BLACK PANTHER, no competition, $825m.

TG:M, lots of competition, $1.5b.

 

So far in this post pandemic era people don't go to the cinema just to go to the cinema they only go if there is a specific movie they want to see. People are going to see A2 because they want to see A2 not because there's little else playing.

[cookie]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Shang-Chi was also Marvel so clearly it was the exception for that weekend. Equalizer 3 is set for Labor Day weekend this year so I imagine that will determine if the weekend will remain a dump frame (or making National Cinema Day an annual thing) going forward.

How can something be the exception if it was literally the first time anyone tried to put a major tentpole there?

 

Shang-Chi is the proof that it works. Not the exception.

[Godzilla]

Just now, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

BLACK ADAM, no competition. $400m.

BLACK PANTHER, no competition, $825m.

TG:M, lots of competition, $1.5b.

 

So far in this post pandemic era people don't go to the cinema just to go to the cinema they only go if there is a specific movie they want to see. People are going to see A2 because they want to see A2 not because there's little else playing.

Umm Black Adam had Wakanda Forever as direct competition.

[TwoMisfits]

31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So A Man Called Otto gonna do 30m? More than Babylon and Fablemans combined potentially?

 

Total DOM - I think so - at least that high.

 

My theory is it looks GA friendly.  All my kids didn't hate the preview, and neither did I.  Now, we're not paying to see it (I don't think), but this has been in our "maybe" category and if you get enough people there, you get a decent group off the fence and in...

 

I know some think Tom is miscast, but I think in the preview, he's perfect.  It seems original b/c it's him playing off type, but b/c you know it's him, you know it's gonna be a happier path (vs a dreary depressing one), b/c he would struggle pulling off becoming an absolutely awful person as a movie ending...so it's got "feel good" guaranteed in the plot line...

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

This year should theoretically establish some depth, though I still think more and more of the movies that would have once typically done a decent 30m so are now gonna be DOA under 10m types (Renfield, House Party, those types). Also weird how barren the September to November stretch is (sorry Duneheads) when March to August is so loaded. And that's before Exorcist moves. Something needs to take a late September date ASAP.

 

Not on the Kraven train:)...

[CaptNathanBrittles]

3 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

Umm Black Adam had Wakanda Forever as direct competition.

 

4 weeks into its run. It was already dead by then.

 

I'm more focused on the weak September and October leading into its release. If there was pent up demand for movies due to lack of competition BLACK ADAM should have exploded in its opening weekend.