MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Alex SciChannel]

Oh come on Puss. I believe in you

 

 

 

[GOGODanca]

what are the odds m3gan can beat smile domestic total?

[GOGODanca]

7.27m if that is the # prolly gets you to 30.5m 3 day

[Alex SciChannel]

I just need Puss to have a higher percentage than Avatar and I'll be happy

 

 

 

 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Copy and pasting this from the weekly thread to this one.

 

My prediction for PiB weekend 4 3-day. I tried to factor in football days so I gave smaller boosts and larger drops for Saturday and Sunday when compared to my comps (TGS, Sing 2, Jumanji WTTJ).

 

Friday: $2.475M (+130%)

Saturday: $3.836M (+55%)

Sunday: $2.877M (-25%)

 

3-day total: $9.188M (-32.1%)

Domestic total: $102.158M

 

Is it too conservative? Is it too bullish? Idk lemme know please. As seen from my dailies goals and predictions I tend to sandbag them as Jason Blum calls it.

Too conservative IMO. Weekdays have been so high that a smaller Fri bump is quite possible, but Sat & Sun should play more normal. Thinking ~4.5x Fri for the 3-day 

[Jiffy]

Ugh gross.

[Tokugennumataka]

Also, history being made here. For the first time in history, Deadline made accurate estimates. Did they hire any BOT members recently?

[todos]

Miss the big + swings from estimates to actual. At least this week’s dailies.
Can the weekend bring them back? 

[thajdikt]

Don´t underestimate Saturday bump for Avatar. 

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Also, history being made here. For the first time in history, Deadline made accurate estimates. Did they hire any BOT members recently?

 

Yes they hired @Noctis

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yes they hired @Noctis

 

[Jiffy]

10 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Don´t underestimate Saturday bump for Avatar. 

6 playoff games and holiday Sunday though.

[M37]

18 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Also, history being made here. For the first time in history, Deadline made accurate estimates. Did they hire any BOT members recently?

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said:

Those are 3day though

 

For 4 I would multiply av by 1.26, m3g 1.16, rest 1.18ish

 

Thans Legion. Do you think M3GAN will drop like a stone after this weekend when it goes onto PVOD and only do say 5M next weekend or hold better than that?

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

what are the odds m3gan can beat smile domestic total?

M3gan is falling harder than Smile did. Smile has been having higher dailies since Monday.

[Cap]

If anyone is like, hey, where did Cap go, I went here, to live rent free in my mind:

 

 

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Thans Legion. Do you think M3GAN will drop like a stone after this weekend when it goes onto PVOD and only do say 5M next weekend or hold better than that?

Wom seems okay, competition won't be much, and pvor often has fairly small impact. On the other hand this wknd will have inflated Fri and sun and still not holding too great. I would guess something like 8 next wknd then 5ish the one after (first on pvod)

[lilmac]

https://www.thefilmik.com/is-avatar-2-hit-or-flop-is-avatar-way-of-water-headed-for-box-office-success/

Found a site specializing in production budget reporting….Avatar 2 numbers 

$800M spent on production + prints and advertising

 

$1.3B break even point 

 

Costs probably don’t count the several years of research and development 

[Firepower]

Disturbing numbers.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

It has limited release. Saw it at PC in London. Tbh I don't get the hype, I didn't like it at all. I'll watch M3gan for the second time, that was fun.

It must be extremely limited, as I can only see two locations showing it, that one in London and one in Birmingham. 
 

The Shudder exclusives tend to have crap release strategies here. Even the UK version of Shudder has like a tenth of the content.