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Shawn Robbins

MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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corngrower87 Straight-to-DVD

corngrower87

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

TITANIC re-release will do some business as well. 

It looks like it’s going to get the lions share of PLFs that week. Couple that with Valentine’s Day, I would be surprised if it didn’t make some coin that week. 

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Xavier Indie Sensation

Xavier

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:

A2 is doing what it was expected to do. It ain't touching NWH or TGM domestically as it's not that elite tier WoM film, but it's smashing it overseas. Don't think it will beat TITANIC WW, but takes #4 all time, which is very good.

I’m not sure NWH was as “elite tier WoM film”  as TGM though. A barren release schedule and the gimmicky spoiler that everyone knew going in did the trick. TGM was a real beast, stateside anyway.

Edited by Xavier
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Xavier said:

I’m not sure NWH was as “elite tier WoM film”  as TGM though. A barren release schedule and the gimmicky spoiler that everyone knew going in did the trick. TGM was a real beast, stateside anyway.

 

It did nearly 550m after its OW.   Can split hairs over whether or not that's "elite tier WOM" or just "really good WOM", if one wants.  All I know is that is a heck of a lot of simoleons. 

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

Posted
Posted (edited)

Top Gun Maverick's legs are mind blowing and even baffling for a summer release. 5 times a 126m opening weekend. To show how impressive that is, the original Spider-Man from 2002 mad 3.52 from 114m opening. Even Pixar originals like Finding Nemo, Inside Out, and lower opening ones like Ratatouille didn't have a 5 multiplier 

Edited by John Marston
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Cheddar Please Indie Sensation

Cheddar Please

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

It did nearly 550m after its OW.   Can split hairs over whether or not that's "elite tier WOM" or just "really good WOM", if one wants.  All I know is that is a heck of a lot of simoleons. 

There has been a lot of revisionist takes on NWH's box office performance (and reception) in these last few months, but all I can say, as someone who was actively tracking this films run, is that its run was quite exceptional given the circumstances

- Released in the middle of the biggest COVID surge since the initial lockdown that took out Canada and several European countries, and had a considerable effect on its early legs (I maintain that the 67% drop in its 2nd wknd was partially COVID inflicted)
- 3x seems mediocre for a Dec release, but for an event finale that was bound to be frontloaded, its comps should really be compared to something like Endgame (2.4x), or DH2 (2.3x) and when framing it that way, it's clear that it's 3.1x multi was still above the norm, especially when looking at its later trajectory.

Edited by Cheddar Please
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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DAJK said:

You are… really invested in this movie :lol: You running Dreamworks or something? 
 

I kid, I kid of course.

I am invested b/c I grew up on Dreamworks and I love animation. My mom used to work at Dreamworks though for a short time as an artist also for Disney animation as an intern for animating The Lion King's in-between frames.

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

He's basically JoelCrawfordScholar/IronJoel at this point. I'd better see his ass seated for the first US preview for Kung Fu Panda 4.

Thank you king. I'd been to early screenings before for other blockbusters. No question imma try and catch one for Kung fu Panda 4 when the time is right. 

 

If I had to pick franchises I am obsessed with atm. It's as follows in no particular order:

 

-Most of DreamWorks Animation (except Boss Baby and Trolls)

-Monsterverse (Probably my #1 favorite franchise b/c I grew up on Kaiju and dinosaurs and I am majoring in paleontology)

-Jurassic Park (no brainer. My #2 favorite. Grew up with dinosaurs, majoring in paleo, ya know)

-Star Wars

-Lord of the Rings (The Hobbit specifically. The book version at least because I read the Hobbit before I watched any LOTR movie and it just hit me at such a level as a kid wanting for adventure and still are to this day)

-Indiana Jones (adventure, obvious)

 

... Probably some more I am forgetting but yea that's the jist. Sorry if I ramble a lot I have ADHD and OCD lol

Edited by Alex SciChannel
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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted

No Way Home had good legs overall, but I wouldn't put it on the same level of TGM, personally. TGM's legs were remarkable.

 

I still remember how incredible it was to experience that second weekend drop. It was in a league of its own, especially coming off of an inflated holiday opening weekend. Truly insane.

 

Best Second Weekend Drops for 100M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend:

  1. Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -28.9%
  2. Spider-Man (2002): -37.8%
  3. The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4%
  4. Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3%
  5. Black Panther (2018): -44.7%
  6. Finding Dory (2016): -46.0%
  7. Alice in Wonderland (2010): -46.0%
  8. Toy Story 3 (2010): -46.2%
  9. Beauty and the Beast (2017): -48.3%
  10. Jurassic World (2015): -49.0%*
  11. The Avengers (2012): -50.3%
  12. The Batman (2022): -50.4%
  13. Toy Story 4 (2019): -50.6%^
  14. It (2017): -51.3%
  15. The Secret Life of Pets (2016): -51.3%

*2nd weekend was not technically a holiday weekend, but it did benefit from Father’s Day

^2nd weekend wasn’t a holiday weekend for US/NA, but it was for CANADA (Canada Day weekend arguably boosted its Sunday gross)

 

@John Marston mentioned Spider-Man's legs - to add to his point, even it "only" had a -37.8% drop into the second weekend, and that was two decades ago without the preview grosses we have today.

 

Peace,

Mike

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

-Monsterverse

-Jurassic Park

 

The others are great too, but this right there ...

 

The zenith of filmmaking.

The epitome of greatness.

The pinnacle of quality.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, stuart360 said:

I mean i'm a 'loonie', and my orig prediction from ages ago was 750mil US/2.5bil WW.

But even i knew i was possibly reaching a bit with us being in post pandemic times.

 

If the pandemic never happened, 750mil would of been locked imo, in fact it probably would of gone way over 800mil US, and 3bil WW.

The only place severely affected by COVID was China. These numbers were always not going to happen.

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Cheddar Please Indie Sensation

Cheddar Please

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mulder said:

The only place severely affected by COVID was China. These numbers were always not going to happen.

if anything, you could argue COVID was a large contributor to the current inflation regime. Assuming inflation remained at pre-COVID levels through 2023, there is a possibility A2 would have made less than it currently has

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