Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[Alex SciChannel]

How's true Friday looking? Above or below 31M?

[MovieMan89]

Also, I was the one who started big clubs for IW and EG being juggernauts back when many people thought that Civil War #s were the ceiling for those. Before anyone tries to call me an MCU hater. Just reading the signs, like I read them back then. 

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

How's true Friday looking? Above or below 31M?

 

I thought Keyser and M37 had a much lower number than that. Maybe 28 but lets see how much bad WOM spreads.

[interiorgatordecorator]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Assume you never looked at the tracking and hear its going to open to 95-100m OW. I would think that would sound good. Folks in this forum are spoilt as we have so much data and after humongous presales start expectations were wild. We have threads like Ant-man 3 opening greater than previous 2 movies opening combined as an example. 

 

what was eternals ow ceiling pre-reactions based on tracking if we assumed it would have ended getting great reviews?

Edited February 17, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[keysersoze123]

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

what was eternals ceiling pre-reactions based on tracking if we assumed it would have ended getting great reviews?

I remember there were people believing in it opening at 120m OW. 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I thought Keyser and M37 had a much lower number than that. Maybe 28 but lets see how much bad WOM spreads.

Still thinking this could be an absurdly preview frontloaded OW the likes of which we almost never see. The fact that it’s opening on a 4 day holiday weekend when interest is naturally more likely to be spread out as it is and then the awful reviews could cause a pretty horrible Sat/Sun. 

[Alex SciChannel]

10 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I thought Keyser and M37 had a much lower number than that. Maybe 28 but lets see how much bad WOM spreads.

Bruh that's lower than I thought. I will say I am a bit biased against Marvel, so I am having a grand old time here. If it gets above 100M, I still would have lost nothing

Edited February 17, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Bruh that's lower than I thought. I will say I am a bit biased against Marvel, so I am having a grand old time here. If it gets above 100M, I still would have lost nothing

 

17.5/28/30/22 = 97.5M would be my guess.

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still thinking this could be an absurdly preview frontloaded OW the likes of which we almost never see. The fact that it’s opening on a 4 day holiday weekend when interest is naturally more likely to be spread out as it is and then the awful reviews could cause a pretty horrible Sat/Sun. 

 

Have a lay down and cut back on the red cordial.

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still thinking this could be an absurdly preview frontloaded OW the likes of which we almost never see. The fact that it’s opening on a 4 day holiday weekend when interest is naturally more likely to be spread out as it is and then the awful reviews could cause a pretty horrible Sat/Sun. 

As far as box office goes, think I'm mentally already in March at this point. It's not so much that the raw numbers are bad, they really aren't, but I feel like some of the movies will at least meet or exceed expectations vs disappoint.

 

You have a great point that you said in another post about being spoiled by tracking too. It's useful and heaven knows I appreciate everyone's work here, but people (myself included) are getting married to patterns now and creating a whole set of expectations based on that. If we had no tracking I guarantee most would be just fine with $95m to $100m.

[Verrows]

As long as it takes the #3 February weekend from Fifty Shades of Grey I guess I'm happy lol.

[Valonqar]

39 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

 

The only two smashes (No way home and Wakanda)

 

Wakanda is a smash while MoM that outgrossed it by 100M WW is not? Really? The narrative that MoM is some kind of disappointment or flop even though it outgrossed the first movie by almost 300M without China, and Wakanda (which dropped real hard from BP) by 100M also without China (an advantage that Wakanda got) is completely ridiculous. But you do you do.

 

DS. Boxoffice (inc China) = 677M

MoM. Boxoffice (no China) = 955M

 

Not a smash. 

 

BP. Boxoffice (inc. China) = 1.3B

BPWF. Boxoffice (inc China) = 855M

 

Smash.

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Valonqar

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Verrows said:

As far as box office goes, think I'm mentally already in March at this point. It's not so much that the raw numbers are bad, they really aren't, but I feel like some of the movies will at least meet or exceed expectations vs disappoint.

 

You have a great point that you said in another post about being spoiled by tracking too. It's useful and heaven knows I appreciate everyone's work here, but people (myself included) are getting married to patterns now and creating a whole set of expectations based on that. If we had no tracking I guarantee most would be just fine with $95m to $100m.

 

Probably not Disney corporate though.  They don't live for their MCU movies just breaking even during their theatrical runs (which looks like a very strong outcome now for this movie) - they live for their MCU movies making enormous theatrical profits that support the rest of their theatrical catalogue...

 

$200M budget is the problem for this movie.   Just like Black Adam's budget was the problem for it.

 

[OncomingStorm93]

32 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Is there any other franchise where a film will have the biggest OW in the series and everyone treats it like a disappointment?

 

I can't think of any? 😆

Civil War and Toy Story 4 come to mind

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OncomingStorm93]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

$200M budget is the problem for this movie.   Just like Black Adam's budget was the problem for it.

 

 

Gonna say something I never thought I'd have to... Black Adam was $200m better spent. Two terrible movies, but at least Black Adam *attempted* to tell a self-contained story with a semblance of a character arc for it's lead character.

 

I need to take a shower after saying that.

[MattW]

I went to ihop the other day and got a free antman ticket out of it. I was mildly excited at first but now I'm on the fence if I want to the spend 2 hours on this.....

[IronJimbo]

39 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Is there any other franchise where a film will have the biggest OW in the series and everyone treats it like a disappointment?

 

I can't think of any? 😆

The Avatar franchise and Avatar 2

I don't think Ant-man will have the staying power or international appeal of Avatar 2 unfornately though. Perhaps 0.20-0.22A2 worldwide probably

[Verrows]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Probably not Disney corporate though.  They don't live for their MCU movies just breaking even during their theatrical runs (which looks like a very strong outcome now for this movie) - they live for their MCU movies making enormous theatrical profits that support the rest of their theatrical catalogue...

 

$200M budget is the problem for this movie.   Just like Black Adam's budget was the problem for it.

 

True, but I'm talking strictly about fan/box office enthusiast expectations.

[grey ghost]

31 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Civil War and Toy Story 4 come to mind

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah sure but I will say Civil War was damn close to an Avengers movie and Toy Story 4 actually dropped once you account for inflation.

[vafrow]

59 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The writing is all over the wall that MCU is in trouble if they can’t manage to put out a beloved movie much sooner than later. No one has been hooked on what they’ve sold post EG so far, and we are pretty deep in at this point.
 

The only two smashes (No way home and Wakanda) were huge for reasons that had absolutely nothing to do with the MCU. Now they are pretty much out of those sort of movies to keep the gravy train rolling. Time to get people interested in the actual franchise again or the bottom will fall out within the next 1-2 years, lock it in. 

 

For the record, I have concerns about the MCU future. It feels like every one of these films that underwhelms, risks setting the MCU back as a brand and have more people stop paying attention to it.

 

But, the one thing I counter that with is that despite the MCU not having a great film post Endgame, it's still running strong numbers even with its lesser properties like Antman. I really wonder what would happen if the MCU delivered an A+ level film on par with Black Panther or Captain America Winter Soldier. Something that stands up with the best of the MCU.

 

That's the weird element of all of this. It feels like one or two films, and they can recapture the magic and make all their doubters look stupid. Or, instead, one really big swing that audiences don't like and suddenly, the brand is irreversibly damaged and the future comes in doubt.