THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Honestly nothing this summer really screams bomb to me

 

Well, are we talking financial bomb or just bomb bomb?  B/c some movies have some budgets that might make them financial bombs unless they go big to very big...

[robertman2]

1 minute ago, cooldude97 said:

meg 2

Forgot that existed

 

Just now, GOGODanca said:

Transformers RoTB, if that thing doesn't get 200m+ from China it's cooked 

I think Transformers is gonna overperform tbh

[TwoMisfits]

Rumored production budgets

 

GOTG 3 $250M

Fast X $340M

Little Mermaid $150M

Transformers $200M

Flash $300M

Indy 5 $295M

MI 7 $290M

Oppenheimer $100M

Barbie $100M

 

Just for a few I pulled on google searches...

Edited April 5, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Eric the Minion]

Transformers and Fast X are weird. It feels like both should underperform due to franchise fatigue and the competition and the not very exciting directors. Yet it seems like the fandoms are hyped for what's in store and Quorum metrics are super solid for both (sorry keyser, I'm ride or die on that website). Plus if fatigue really does hurt both Guardians and even Spider-Verse, that's good news for both. Those and Flash are the real "they could do anything and nothing would shock me" for this summer.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Rumored production budgets

 

GOTG 3 $250M

Fast X $340M

Little Mermaid $150M

Transformers $200M

Flash $200M

Indy 5 $295M

MI 7 $290M

Oppenheimer $100M

Barbie $100M

 

Just for a few I pulled on google searches...

Flash is 300 million before advertising.

[Maggie]

Transformers will disappoint imo. It's beating a dead horse. Paramount should have left the franchise rest for a while.

[Eric the Minion]

I do not approve of such blatant and unfair slander smh.

 

 

[DAJK]

Throwing my hat in the ring, Barbie is going to be a top 5 movie this summer. Hype online is through the roof. I think it’s doing LEGO movie numbers with a slightly bigger opening. 80/275 is where I’m at for now.

[robertman2]

2 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

I do not approve of such blatant and unfair slander smh.

 

 

I can fix him

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Flash is 300 million before advertising.

 

Finger typo, dang it - will fix!

[Firepower]

I wonder if Universal would cancel Fast XI if Fast X does 600-700 mln with its budget.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Firepower

[Starphanluke]

Those Deadline numbers for Mario seem like pretty dramatic under-estimations.

[Krissykins]

I’ve been getting the Oppenheimer trailer for at least 8 months now. Grating. 

[B D Joe]

I think the new cast additions and a good trailer are really boosting Fast X.  It will probably open huge and then fall off.

 

Spider-Verse, Transformers, and Elemental will all be hurt by an overcrowded June.

Edited April 5, 2023 by B D Joe

[GOGODanca]

95 Verified score after 250+ reviews, looks like A cinemascore

 

Air is at 98 after 100 reviews

Edited April 5, 2023 by GOGODanca

[Cmasterclay]

Sadly, based on quorum numbers and trailer views, I'm most worried about Indy of any blockbuster this summer. It's the one I'm most personally rooting for.

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Sadly, based on quorum numbers and trailer views, I'm most worried about Indy of any blockbuster this summer. It's the one I'm most personally rooting for.

I don't trust The Quorum and youtube trailer views are ok...the target audience -old people- doesn't spend time on youtube

[GOGODanca]

I've got The Flash and MI7 as the two world wide winners, i can see 300m DOM and over 700m INT for the latter, i really think TGM boosted tom's popularity/drawing power a lot

[Maggie]

Ok, i just checked Indy trailer views/ likes on youtube. I thought it had more. huh...it is indeed a small number of likes, but i suppose old people don't have youtube accounts to *like* the trailer.

[Gopher]

9 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I don't trust The Quorum and youtube trailer views are ok...the target audience -old people- doesn't spend time on youtube

 

From the Puck newsletter on January 2nd: 

 

"Because the trailer debuted at Brazil Comic Con on Dec. 1, the same day as two other high profile summer trailers—Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9) and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 (May 5)—rival studios were able to compare views to gauge relative strength out of the gate. After two weeks across YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok, here were the numbers, per a studio source:

Transformers 7: 506 million views
Guardians of Galaxy 3: 187 million views
Indiana Jones 5: 79 million views

There’s still time, of course, and it might be that the Indy audience isn’t the most online. But the coronation seems premature."

 

If word out of Cannes is "it's okay, too much CGI, for the best this is the last one," then I think Indy is in serious trouble-- especially hitting two weeks before another A-lister/franchise beloved by old people...