MovieMan89 Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, DisposedData said: No. That doesn't guarantee 700m lol. 600m would look very likely though. Sorry but there’s 0% chance it could miss 600 with a 69m+ 3rd weekend and 440+ total. The math simply doesn’t work. “Guarantee” is a strong word, but 700 would be very likely. Crazy direct competition from the late May to late June stretch for its late legs would be the only thing that might stop it at that point. Edited April 19, 2023 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Sorry but there’s 0% chance it could miss 600 with a 69m+ 3rd weekend and 440+ total. The math simply doesn’t work. “Guarantee” is a strong word, but 700 would be very likely. Crazy direct competition from the late May to late June stretch for its late legs would be the only thing that might stop it at that point. What weekend drops are you projecting to get 700 as very likely exactly? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, JustLurking said: What weekend drops are you projecting to get 700 as very likely exactly? If it held that insane this weekend, there’s no reason for the drop to not also be insane the next weekend (50m+). Zero comp after all. From there, the post 4th weekend run just has to be “average” and it can hit 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: If it held that insane this weekend, there’s no reason for the drop to not also be insane the next weekend (50m+). Zero comp after all. From there, the post 4th weekend run just has to be “average” and it can hit 700. I'm not sure I follow your math here. That would bring the film to 505-510ish after its 4th weekend. Even 30% drop every week after that does not get even close to the remaining 195M you would need for 700 and those would be well above "average". Edited April 19, 2023 by JustLurking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 2 hours ago, kayumanggi said: Sorry, what happened to RETURN OF THE KING's re-release? Was it just a one weekend thing? It was a 1 night event, not even a full weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Yeah, he gone. 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptNathanBrittles Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Only 67k separating movies 2-6. 😲 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 3 hours ago, JustLurking said: I'm not sure I follow your math here. That would bring the film to 505-510ish after its 4th weekend. Even 30% drop every week after that does not get even close to the remaining 195M you would need for 700 and those would be well above "average". Your math is putting it like 20-25m short in this scenario. The thing is, it’s not that uncommon for animation to pull -30% WoW holds after the first month. Unless it was poorly received or very frontloaded from the start. In this hypothetical scenario being discussed where Mario did something like 70 3rd and 50 4th weekends, at that point it’s a given the holds are going to be above average for the rest of the run. So that’s why 700 would be “very likely.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said: Only 67k separating movies 2-6. 😲 The rankings will change again this weekend with EVIL DEAD RISE affecting THE POPE'S EXORCIST and RENFIELD the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Porthos said: Yeah, he gone. Eesh, was trying to give the benefit of the doubt until things were more concrete, but yeah that’s the end for him. Edited April 20, 2023 by MovieMan89 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austin Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 What are we looking to expect from Wed/Thur based on the past two days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, Austin said: What are we looking to expect from Wed/Thur based on the past two days? Something between 5 and 5.5 for both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 4.75m. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: 4.75m. That would be pretty underwhelming tbh Did you adjust at all based on Monday’s actual coming in higher than scraped estimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) 4.75 would be the first objectively bad number of the run IMHO... a 35%+ Wednesday drop is not good. Hopefully this is either an underestimation or just one data point and that the Friday increase more than makes up for it. Edited April 20, 2023 by superduperm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 I think that number is fine and still puts a $60 million weekend within reach assuming at least a 200% increase on Friday. A weekend in the $50 million range would still be very good too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, M37 said: That would be pretty underwhelming tbh Did you adjust at all based on Monday’s actual coming in higher than scraped estimate? yes. it dropped 18.2% from Monday for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 8 hours ago, kayumanggi said: Sorry, what happened to RETURN OF THE KING's re-release? Was it just a one weekend thing? it was a 3 day thing with one or two showings a day. Just went and saw it and it was nearly sold out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Your math is putting it like 20-25m short in this scenario. The thing is, it’s not that uncommon for animation to pull -30% WoW holds after the first month. Unless it was poorly received or very frontloaded from the start. In this hypothetical scenario being discussed where Mario did something like 70 3rd and 50 4th weekends, at that point it’s a given the holds are going to be above average for the rest of the run. So that’s why 700 would be “very likely.” Man, I gave it a 30% hold even on the week where guardians is debuting and it's losing a ton of PLF lol. But okay. You're looking for sub-30% hold every week and that's an "average animation run", gotcha. It's not "very likely" at the moment. It's within the realm of possibility but certainly not very likely. Edited April 20, 2023 by JustLurking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DisposedData Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 If that 4.75m holds then this movies is even more weekend heavy than I thought and maybe a Sonic type jump isn't too unrealistic for the weekend. I cant remember the last time we had a movie this weekend heavy since well Sonic 2 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
