GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[stripe]

40 minutes ago, druv10 said:

TA1 -14%

IW  -16%

EG  -17%

GOTG - 19%

 

GOTG3 is in some great company with that Sunday hold and when you factor in, other 3 had massive sellout spillover which GOTG3 does not. 

 

Another SH film with great Sunday was Wonder Woman. 15.6% drop. I know it was in early June, but still. It was an obvious signs of legs. In the end, WW grossed 4x its OW.

[Firepower]

28 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

What you guys think the word of mouth for Marvels is gonna be

Non-existent

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

May x August 

 

Guardians 1 have stronger weekdays than typical May releases 

Eh, a lot of kids would have been back in school during GotG1s second weekend. I can tell you pretty much every school in this state is. 

[ringedmortality]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Eh, a lot of kids would have been back in school during GotG1s second weekend. I can tell you pretty much every school in this state is. 

 

I saw the first Guardians on my birthday and then had to go to school a few days later.

[MattW]

7 hours ago, stripe said:

Spoiler

A few days ago I calculated the average DOM gross of each MCU phase.

 

Phase 1: 291M average

IM 318

TIH 135

IM2 312

T 177

CA 181

TA 623

 

Phase 2: 307M average

IM3 409

T2 203

GOTG 333

CA2 260

AOU 459

AM 180

 

Phase 3: 449M average

CW 408

DS 230

GOTG2 390

SMH 334

TR 311

BP 700

AIW 679

AMW 216

CM 427

AEG 858

FFH 390

 

Phase 4: 369M average

BW 183 (*Covid)

SC 225 (*Covid)

Et 165 (*Covid)

NWH 805

DS2 411

L&T 343

BPWF 454

 

So DOM Phase 4 was under Phase 3, but still over phase 1&2 despite Covid. I would say that a 369M average gross with 7 films is more than great.

 

 

Yeah, good comparison. Maybe take out avengers movies since phase 4 doesn't have one yet.

Phase 1: 225

Phase 2: 277

Phase 3: 378

Phase 4: 285 w/o nwh, 350 with (including 214 for antman3)

[Godzilla]

50-55% drop would great for 2nd weekend drop.

[MovieMan89]

53 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Another SH film with great Sunday was Wonder Woman. 15.6% drop. I know it was in early June, but still. It was an obvious signs of legs. In the end, WW grossed 4x its OW.

I think it’s a mistake to group this in the same category as non-sequels though. Just look at the list being discussed here of comparable Sunday holds (GotG1, TA, IW, EG, WW). The 2 of those with the relatively “meh” multis were the sequels (IW, EG). Not to be a broken record, but it has to really be a ground breaking trailblazer in box office history to go much higher than 2.6x as a CBM sequel outside of the holidays. 

[MovieMan89]

Also, with Sunday being lower than what we were getting told yesterday, I’m back to being borderline on 300. I’ll still go in on it, but I do think it’s very much going to be a fight and probably like a Black Panther sort of finish for the milestone (barely makes it). 

[DisposedData]

Is this the first week where schools start to be off?

[unexpected]

4 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Is this the first week where schools start to be off?

That will be good news for Mario. 

[druv10]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also, with Sunday being lower than what we were getting told yesterday, I’m back to being borderline on 300. I’ll still go in on it, but I do think it’s very much going to be a fight and probably like a Black Panther sort of finish for the milestone (barely makes it). 

31.4M(-19%) vs 32M(-18%), not much difference actually.

[titanic2187]

$160m of aggregate box office, only $40m went to holdovers. Are we sure we aren't giving too much showtime to top performer? The holdovers are performing worse than their counterparty back when GOTG2 opened in 2017. 

 

Winner takes all economics is really awful and at their peak.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

38 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Is this the first week where schools start to be off?

Summer days don't truly start kicking in until June. College kids might be done, especially SRs but it won't be noticeable. True, full on summer days don't kick in fully until mid June. Just about everyone is out of school by then through mid August.

[upriser7]

I am really curios about the Monday number

 

EC has hinted that Monday's number looks promising

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think it’s a mistake to group this in the same category as non-sequels though. Just look at the list being discussed here of comparable Sunday holds (GotG1, TA, IW, EG, WW). The 2 of those with the relatively “meh” multis were the sequels (IW, EG). Not to be a broken record, but it has to really be a ground breaking trailblazer in box office history to go much higher than 2.6x as a CBM sequel outside of the holidays. 

The 2 with meh multis were the 2 that had spillover because they were breaking the OW record lmao. Granted so did TA1 but that shows in the Sun drop being notably good even with spillover factored in. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Jiffy]

32 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

$160m of aggregate box office, only $40m went to holdovers. Are we sure we aren't giving too much showtime to top performer? The holdovers are performing worse than their counterparty back when GOTG2 opened in 2017. 

 

Winner takes all economics is really awful and at their peak.  

Yeh feast or famine can't work long-term. Audiences need to be retrained on mid-budget but may be a lose cause to some degree.

[John Marston]

 even if “Guardians Vol. 3” becomes a hit as expected, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the lapsed MCU fans it brings back to theaters will stick around for upcoming films like “The Marvels” or “Thunderbolts.” “Vol. 2” topped $850 million worldwide not only because of the popularity of its ragtag superhero team, but because it was riding the unstoppable momentum of MCU’s Infinity Saga, where every installment felt like a build-up to “Avengers: Infinity War” and the looming showdown with Thanos.“Guardians Vol. 3,” by director James Gunn’s design, is not meant to set up any future installments the way “Quantumania” did. Its focus is solely on ending the “Guardians” trilogy that began nine years ago, as Gunn and some cast members like Dave Bautista leave the Marvel stable.While the film’s mid- and post-credit scenes tease more potential adventures for some members of the Guardians, everything before that is about saying goodbye to the original quintet of Star-Lord, Gamora, Drax, Rocket and Groot, along with the new members that joined along the way. Because of that, “Vol. 3” in many ways feels more like a true finale than even “Avengers: Endgame,” which planted seeds for future MCU titles like “Loki,” “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” and “Spider-Man: Far From Home.”

Disney insiders believe it was this self-contained presentation that led to weaker presales than past Marvel films released in May rather than the poor reception of “Quantumania” and other Phase Four MCU films, and it is also because of that self-contained style that those insiders say Disney does not expect that “Guardians Vol. 3” will necessarily get audiences interested in films to come.So when it comes time for Disney and Marvel to get audiences hyped for “The Marvels” this summer, it’s not out of the question that a substantial number of moviegoers decide to wait on word of mouth or even for a streaming release before committing to see it. If that happens, and the MCU’s slow decline resumes with disappointing box office returns for “The Marvels,” the successful release of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” may seem in hindsight to be just a bear-market rally.

 

 

https://www.thewrap.com/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-box-office-analysis/

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The 2 with meh multis were the 2 that had spillover because they were breaking the OW record lmao. Granted so did TA1 but that shows in the Sun drop being notably good even with spillover factored in. 

If you have all this data that shows CBM sequels outside of the holiday can easily eclipse 2.6x, then by all means…

 

I mean there’s TDK I guess, but I don’t feel like we need an explanation on why we shouldn’t expect this to be like TDK…

Edited May 8, 2023 by MovieMan89

[PlatnumRoyce]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

“Vol. 2” topped $850 million worldwide not only because of the popularity of its ragtag superhero team, but because it was riding the unstoppable momentum of MCU’s Infinity Saga,

Sure...but Volume 2 was also the rare superhero sequel not to be boosted by either a big crossover either in the film or in a recent Avengers film. You wouldn't need "the infinity saga" to explain GotG2 grossing more than GotG1.

[Daxtreme]

Got my GOTG3 ticket for tomorrow night, haven't seen a movie in theaters on a Tuesday in years