GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[GOGODanca]

7 minutes ago, thedude11 said:

is it because saturday is a working day this week?

Yes

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 Assuming similar fri to sun increase/decrease to last week it will gross 21m. So will need to average 21% drop to hit 600m. Definitely in play but wont be easy. It does not need to drop like a rock to miss 600m at this point. it will do that if it drops 30% next weekend. There will be a logjam of screens from FX onwards. 

But how does it look compared to animation? Those typically have incredible late legs unless the WOM sucks. I could be wrong, but I don’t think sub 25% drops on average are all that unusual for animation in the late run. Not even mentioning comparing it to other blockbusters that have held this well in their first month, which should also be a sign the late legs will be exceptional. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But how does it look compared to animation? Those typically have incredible late legs unless the WOM sucks. I could be wrong, but I don’t think sub 25% drops on average are all that unusual for animation in the late run. Not even mentioning comparing it to other blockbusters that have held this well in their first month, which should also be a sign the late legs will be exceptional. 

I am not saying its not happening. But it wont be easy due to the release schedule we will have. For now its number 2 in the pegging order but schedule will be unrelenting in next 2 weeks. sub 25% wont cut it for sure. Next weekend it needs a Mother of God hold like drop in late teens. it will probably drop bit more when FX opens as prime time it will lose show count. Then there is Mermaid which is a direct competitor and then Spiderverse a week later. 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not saying its not happening. But it wont be easy due to the release schedule we will have. For now its number 2 in the pegging order but schedule will be unrelenting in next 2 weeks. sub 25% wont cut it for sure. Next weekend it needs a Mother of God hold like drop in late teens. it will probably drop bit more when FX opens as prime time it will lose show count. Then there is Mermaid which is a direct competitor and then Spiderverse a week later. 

Yes, the late may to June comp is nuts. But I also think it will be grossing too low of numbers by then for it to matter much. Think the holds can still be strong when the numbers aren’t high. And yeah, I expect amazing holds to continue up to Mermaid. Also, summer weekdays will be a nice little boost for its late late run, even if the gross is small by then. 

[grey ghost]

Who would've predicted 20 years ago that James Gunn would be the savior of Marvel and DC?

Edited May 5, 2023 by grey ghost

[PrinceRico]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Who would've predicted 20 years ago that James Gun would be the savior of Marvel and DC?

Savior of MCU?

Edited May 5, 2023 by PrinceRico

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Savior of MCU?

I think he’s referring to when GotG1 gave Phase 2 a bit of a kick? 
 

Also apparently we are on an odd good/even bad pattern with MCU. So maybe phase 5 will end up good after all?

Edited May 5, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Torontofan]

Reallly shows how much avengers hype really drove the MCU films box office before. 

[PrinceRico]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think he’s referring to when GotG1 gave Phase 2 a bit of a kick? 
 

Also apparently we are on an odd good/even bad pattern with MCU. So maybe phase 5 will end up good after all?

Oh ok because spider man and WF are so far the only MCU movies that delivered with fans and at box office. MCU still has a ways to go before being saved. Last year they had 3 movies to open at 187, 180, and 145. This year the might struggle to get a film past 120 opening. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by PrinceRico

[fmpro]

39 minutes ago, thedude11 said:

is it because saturday is a working day this week?

im not an expert in China. But a lot of saturdays are workday i think

 

Maoyan down to 9.4

[baumer]

I'm probably going to sound like a get off my lawn kind of guy but it just seems like the Innocence of box office is gone now. I know a lot of us have been doing this for more than 20 years and so the mystery and the mystique is gone. As soon as the preview number comes out everyone's telling us if it's a good number if it's a bad number if it'll make 700 if it'll make six how good that is for the MCU if that's good for Guardians of the galaxy. It's like we can't even enjoy a number anymore without extrapolating and then buying a plot in the cemetery for it.

 

I don't really have a solution I'm not really offering a solution I'm just saying it's too bad that it's come to this.

 

Sure every once in awhile Titanic or top gun Maverick or some other surprise will come out. I like it when it films like that completely shock us. Remember about 20 years ago when my big fat Greek wedding came out and next to Titanic it was probably the biggest surprise in box office tracking in God knows how long. It's fun when we have surprises..... again this is just one big rant I don't really have a point and I certainly don't have a solution. I guess like I said this is more of a get off my lawn kind of an observation. 🤷

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, fmpro said:

im not an expert in China. But a lot of saturdays are workday i think

 

Maoyan down to 9.4

come on. if you aren't expert in China, who is?

[RamblinRed]

Deadline says the $17.5 included $400K from Wednesday night marathon showings, so Preview number is really closer to $17.1.

Basically the same Preview as GotG2.

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Oh ok because spider man and WF are so far the only MCU movies that delivered with fans and at box office. MCU still has a ways to go before being saved. Last year they had 3 movies to open at 187, 180, and 145. This year the might struggle to get a film past 120 opening. 

Are they? 
 

WF also had a disappointing run

[Cmasterclay]

This is either a terrifying nightmare for humanity or an exciting behind-the-scenes look into the creative process of the Russo brothers.

 

 

[fmpro]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

come on. if you aren't expert in China, who is?

Chinese BO maybe. But not China as a whole and knowing when they have saturday work days

[eddyxx]

3 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

 

THIS  is the crossover I didn’t know I needed. Inject it into my veins!

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, baumer said:

I'm probably going to sound like a get off my lawn kind of guy but it just seems like the Innocence of box office is gone now. I know a lot of us have been doing this for more than 20 years and so the mystery and the mystique is gone. As soon as the preview number comes out everyone's telling us if it's a good number if it's a bad number if it'll make 700 if it'll make six how good that is for the MCU if that's good for Guardians of the galaxy. It's like we can't even enjoy a number anymore without extrapolating and then buying a plot in the cemetery for it.

 

I don't really have a solution I'm not really offering a solution I'm just saying it's too bad that it's come to this.

 

Sure every once in awhile Titanic or top gun Maverick or some other surprise will come out. I like it when it films like that completely shock us. Remember about 20 years ago when my big fat Greek wedding came out and next to Titanic it was probably the biggest surprise in box office tracking in God knows how long. It's fun when we have surprises..... again this is just one big rant I don't really have a point and I certainly don't have a solution. I guess like I said this is more of a get off my lawn kind of an observation. 🤷

 

I had a ball during Super Mario's OW.

 

The trades were expecting 90m. 

[Mr Roark]

Gunn has always been the most talented and unique voice within the MCU. The fact that GotG3 will end up being a very strong entry making good money doesn’t mean anything for the future MCU because he’s already gone for good by now and this film is completely disconnected from the future Phase 5.

[GOGODanca]

44 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think he’s referring to when GotG1 gave Phase 2 a bit of a kick? 
 

Also apparently we are on an odd good/even bad pattern with MCU. So maybe phase 5 will end up good after all?

winter soldier came out only a few months before gotg, it didn't need a kick