GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[SchumacherFTW]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

There seems to be a lot of anti-streaming rhetoric, are we seriously suggesting that Disney+ should have no original content from Marvel Studios? 

Original content, sure. But it shouldn't feel like homework if you want to just understand the movies. 

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I think you have to give credit to the Marvel marketing team here. 

 

This was heading to a brutal scenario just a week and a half ago. The decision to move up the review embargo, and release of various clips all seemed to be well planned out. They obviously got to enough of their audience to convince people, when it didn't look like it was going to happen.

 

We'll see how the reaction to this film and opening weekend goes. Most people don't pay attention to things like tracking, so doing better than expected may not count as much, but, getting to $120M if they can manage it could be enough to make the story about the film and good word of mouth.

 

My fear was that if it fell below Antman, the box office would become the story on it.

Honestly I'm not worried about Marvel and the MCU, the library is still full of characters not yet tapped into plus they have X-Men which having been on hiatus for a while will be embraced by audiences if it turns out well. 

 

 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I think you have to give credit to the Marvel marketing team here. 

 

This was heading to a brutal scenario just a week and a half ago. The decision to move up the review embargo, and release of various clips all seemed to be well planned out. They obviously got to enough of their audience to convince people, when it didn't look like it was going to happen.

 

We'll see how the reaction to this film and opening weekend goes. Most people don't pay attention to things like tracking, so doing better than expected may not count as much, but, getting to $120M if they can manage it could be enough to make the story about the film and good word of mouth.

 

My fear was that if it fell below Antman, the box office would become the story on it.

Agreed - they’ve largely been able to have basic marketing campaigns, resting on brand strength (and free advertising on network affiliates) and not having to “work” to reach and bring people in. Moving up reviews, fan screenings, and the clip barrage were all effective at selling a film for which there was interest, but needing a push to get people off the fence and into seats. 

 

But it starts with having a quality product that can be sold beyond the brand/title, and that has been more hit or miss of late 

[YM!]

10 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

OS numbers aren´t bad guys, it´s getting way better due to great WOM 

 

+400M is very much in play

 

Now let´s see DOM numbers ... i´m hoping for 18.5M previews, than a very great SAT / SUN leading to 120 - 125M OW and hopefully some good legs [2.7x or so] 

 

~750M WW would be good for this, all this considered 

Considering sub 600m was a possibility a few days ago, a 750m performance is a massive win. Still a drop from 2, but considering no Russia and a weakened China, it’s solid all things considered. 700m is the win point imho. If it can do that it would be great. Not good compared to past Marvel but considering the damage Quantumania and to a lesser extent the hit and miss of Phase 4, it’s a solid result. The MCU needs great reception to bounce back, so if Secret Invasion and Loki stoke up the fans and The Marvels turns out to be fun, they should be on the right track. Thinking Phase 1-2 numbers are going to be more of the norm though which as long as stuff isn’t 200m+ is great.

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Original content, sure. But it shouldn't feel like homework if you want to just understand the movies. 

Tbh the shows should’ve been more like TV shows and a bit more like Daredevil 2015 in the MCU in that they take place but a bit more clear it’s in the MCU but separate from the main story. I think WandaVision, She-Hulk and Ms. Marvel do the best job at this tbh. Some things like Hawkeye and Falcon would’ve been better off as 2.3 hour movies as you could trim the fat. 

 

I don’t think the original content is the problem but the GA doesn’t want 10 projects a year, even six to seven a bridge too many. Sure, no one watches all and most of the shows but it adds into the fatigue because you feel like you got to watch them and with only a few making theatrical appearances it feels like you can’t tell who’s important to the grand plan from the GA perspective. Tbh apart from Thor, Moon Knight, Falcon and What IF, most of Phase 4 is good but the problem is with oversaturation, only a few were great. The blame though goes to Feige and Iger as they had that plan from the start. Think a phase should have like 3 shows total.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Eternals, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4 and Antman 3 really damaged the brand a lot.

 

Sure, Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 made a lot of money and were profitable, but so were the bad Transformers movies directed by Michael Bay, until people finally stopped watching them and then we got a "reboot".

 

Thing is: don't take the audiences for granted. MCU is a very powerful brand / franchise, BUT bad movies ALWAYS damage a brand. 

 

GOTG 3 being a good movie should be the rule and not exception. What if The Marvels is another Love and Thunder fiasco? Are people excited for a PG-13 Blade flick? What about Thunderbolts ( aka MCU's Suicide Squad )? Captain America 4 might perform really well, but it's a Captain America movie without the original Captain America ( Steve Rogers ).

 

From now on, maybe ( just maybe ) general audiences will be more selective. What if they skip The Marvels, Thunderbolts and come just for Captain America 4 and Deadpool 3? Ever since the pandemic, prices have been very excessive and habits changed. Maybe people will just avoid movies they think they're mediocre ( in their view ) and will wait for "event" movies. GOTG 3 is something different, because its closing a story that started 9 years ago. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Blaze Heatnix

[Immortal]

26 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I don't see how making the shows two episodes long would make them more like an event.

No, but movie length will allow them to make the story feel more cohesive and less unnecessary. They can easily make almost each show shorter without it losing the impact.

For ex: The whole Karachi part of Ms. Marvel could have been compressed into 10-15 minutes instead of nearly 1.5 episodes, similarly, the wedding and the final showdown could be compressed to the length of an episode instead of 2. By just these 2 changes we shave off at least 70 minutes and with a few more tweaks, the show can be condensed into a 130-140 min film.

 

[grey ghost]

I think it's premature to say the MCU is doomed.

 

People forget most of phase 1 and 2 weren't home runs. Then they hit their stride for phase 3. 

 

The secret is always leave them wanting more. You don't want to peak at the beginning of a saga.

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, Lestranger said:

Anything over 110m feels like a success only in regards to the horrific tracking. Contextually, it needed 180m to match V2 opening weekend. It clearly is not in the same ballpark as that film. Dr strange opened to 187m a year ago. Thor, 144m. This is struggling to get to 120m? Something has changed permanently within MCU. Best hope is for amazing legs, which seem possible with the audience reactions so far. 

2022 and Antman Didnt help The MCU but he can recover with this one and if secret invasion will be good.

 

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

Controversial opinion maybe, but while im happy that GOTG avoided the pessimistic tracking scenarios and 120Mish OW would be ok to solid all things considered imo, i dont think it can reverse the downward trend of the MCU by itself. I think the MCU needs 3 or 4 really good movies one after another to win many audience members back.

 

If, for example, The Marvels audience reception is again in the mediocre waters, GOTG Vol 3 could be seen as an exception among the MCU's quality decline rather than a signal of a return to form.

Good point.

not Only good movie but also good tv shows 

 

 

[grey ghost]

Marvel did rest on their laurels a bit.

 

And they pissed of their fans with too many bad movie going experiences.

 

But this is a good time to course correct. And it seems like that what they intend to do by focusing on quality over quantity over the next few years.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Eternals, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4 and Antman 3 really damaged the brand a lot.

 

Sure, Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 made a lot of money and were profitable, but so were the bad Transformers movies directed by Michael Bay, until people finally stopped watching them and then we got a "reboot".

 

Thing is: don't take the audiences for granted. MCU is a very powerful brand / franchise, BUT bad movies ALWAYS damage a brand. 

 

GOTG 3 being a good movie should be the rule and not exception. What if The Marvels is another Love and Thunder fiasco? Are poeple excited for a PG-13 Blade flick? What about Thunderbolts ( aka MCU's Suicide Squad )? Captain America 4 might perform really well, but it's a Captain America movie without the original Captain America ( Steve Rogers ).

 

From now on, maybe ( just maybe ) general audiences will be more seletive. What if they skip The Marvels, Thunderbolts and come just for Captain America 4 and Deadpool 3? Ever since the pandemic, prices have been very excessive and habits changed. Maybe people will just avoid movies they think they're mediocre ( in their view ) and will wait for "event" movies. GOTG 3 is something different, because its closing a story that started 9 years ago. 

I do think selectiveness is a factor we’re going to see. I also think more non GA went for Guardians than most of the Phase 5 movies. Blade is a question mark especially because Marvel seems to be scared in doing horror and non-R rated things outside of Deadpool which is kind of like Family Guy in that it’s not for kids but c’mon the 10-14 boys crowd loves it. Thunderbolts faces an uphill battle because not only must it differentiate itself from Suicide Squad but all the characters but Ghost and Yuen’s character have the same “powers but not really powers set”. Can easily see it do Eternals numbers.

 

Of the ones I feel confident in Deadpool 3 will be the next event. Cap 4 I think being a psuedo Hulk sequel is a draw and I think maybe it’ll do a little better than expected because I think young black children will be happy to see a black Cap on screen. The Marvels has a floor of 500m but ceiling is hard to determine if it’s 700m or 800m especially with a packed November as Dune 2 and Hunger Games will eat into it.

[Krissykins]

45 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Honestly I'm not worried about Marvel and the MCU, the library is still full of characters not yet tapped into plus they have X-Men which having been on hiatus for a while will be embraced by audiences if it turns out well. 

 

 

The X-Men films were always notoriously frontloaded. I’d be curious to see how a rebooted version does. 

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, Immortal said:

No, but movie length will allow them to make the story feel more cohesive and less unnecessary. They can easily make almost each show shorter without it losing the impact.

For ex: The whole Karachi part of Ms. Marvel could have been compressed into 10-15 minutes instead of nearly 1.5 episodes, similarly, the wedding and the final showdown could be compressed to the length of an episode instead of 2. By just these 2 changes we shave off at least 70 minutes and with a few more tweaks, the show can be condensed into a 130-140 min film.

 

Either that or commit to the high school bit and do a full show out of that. But yeah I agree. 

[scytheavatar]

50 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

There seems to be a lot of anti-streaming rhetoric, are we seriously suggesting that Disney+ should have no original content from Marvel Studios? 

 

We should be asking why Disney is still making Marvel and Star Wars shows for Disney+........ these shows have large budgets of around 100M per season yet they have been generating less and less hype in recent times. The economics of these "original content" is dodgy and they are sucking up energy and resources that could have gone towards theatrical releases with more sound economics. But of course then you need to start asking why Disney+ has been put in the position where it has to rely on Marvel/Star Wars shows so much. What is Disney doing so that they can start creating the next House of Cards/Cobra Kai/Stranger Things/etc on Disney+? 

[M37]

Just to plant a flag: $113-117M OW 

 

Above Ant-Man and disaster zone, below the $120M bar many seem to have settled on as (relative) success, but all indications are the WOM will be good and so legs will be better than recent MCU releases 

 

Will be the first film overall in post-pandemic era to gross between $225M (Shang-Chi) and $343M (Thor L&T) DOM, and probably first MCU film to land in $260-$312M gap (CA:WS & IM2)

[SpiderByte]

12 minutes ago, Immortal said:

No, but movie length will allow them to make the story feel more cohesive and less unnecessary. They can easily make almost each show shorter without it losing the impact.

For ex: The whole Karachi part of Ms. Marvel could have been compressed into 10-15 minutes instead of nearly 1.5 episodes, similarly, the wedding and the final showdown could be compressed to the length of an episode instead of 2. By just these 2 changes we shave off at least 70 minutes and with a few more tweaks, the show can be condensed into a 130-140 min film.

 

Your issue is that they release too much stuff, so your solution is to release 6 films a year instead of splitting that between films and series 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

I do think selectiveness is a factor we’re going to see. I also think more non GA went for Guardians than most of the Phase 5 movies. Blade is a question mark especially because Marvel seems to be scared in doing horror and non-R rated things outside of Deadpool which is kind of like Family Guy in that it’s not for kids but c’mon the 10-14 boys crowd loves it. Thunderbolts faces an uphill battle because not only must it differentiate itself from Suicide Squad but all the characters but Ghost and Yuen’s character have the same “powers but not really powers set”. Can easily see it do Eternals numbers.

 

Of the ones I feel confident in Deadpool 3 will be the next event. Cap 4 I think being a psuedo Hulk sequel is a draw and I think maybe it’ll do a little better than expected because I think young black children will be happy to see a black Cap on screen. The Marvels has a floor of 500m but ceiling is hard to determine if it’s 700m or 800m especially with a packed November as Dune 2 and Hunger Games will eat into it.

Deadpool 3's advantage is that the previous films were well received but also the novelty of Deadpool in the MCU, how they'll explain it, I do not know but I get the feeling it'll be standalone which will work in its favour, 

 

Blade will be an interesting one, I think you could get away with it being non R rated if it's more like HellBoy and Hellboy II which were critically acclaimed. 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Your issue is that they release too much stuff, so your solution is to release 6 films a year instead of splitting that between films and series 

Maybe just longer phases or pushing some films around really. Not everyone needs the spot in limelight asap. Tbh, the Young Avengers angle I think they could’ve just all been introduced in a movie last phase. 

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

 

We should be asking why Disney is still making Marvel and Star Wars shows for Disney+........ these shows have large budgets of around 100M per season yet they have been generating less and less hype in recent times. The economics of these "original content" is dodgy and they are sucking up energy and resources that could have gone towards theatrical releases with more sound economics. But of course then you need to start asking why Disney+ has been put in the position where it has to rely on Marvel/Star Wars shows so much. What is Disney doing so that they can start creating the next House of Cards/Cobra Kai/Stranger Things/etc on Disney+? 

House of Cards was based on a BBC TV series so not exactly original and Cobra Kai is based on The Karate Kid which is a Sony property so it's not Netflix is brimming with original ideas.