poweranimals Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Dan Murrell made his top 10 summer predictions. Not sure I can agree with these. There's no way Twisters is #4. Skip to 21:51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazymoviekid Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) Aight, here are my current summer predictions. Thoughts? It's opening weekend/total domestic *Wednesday release 1. D&W - $148/$414 2. IO2 - $118/$378 3. DM4 - $65*/$291 4. Furiosa - $62/$184 5. BB:RoD - $56/$151 6. Twisters - $46/$147 7. AQP:DO - $44/$136 8. KotPotA - $48/$133 9. Garfield - $42/128 10. The Fall Guy - $36/$120 11. Horizon 1 - $27/$118 12. Horizon 2 - $35/$96 13. IF - $32/$92 14. Alien: Romulus - $34/$91 15. Trap - $28/$84 16. It Ends With Us - $14*/$80 Edited May 1 by crazymoviekid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 5 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said: Aight, here are my current summer predictions. Thoughts? It's opening weekend/total domestic *Wednesday release 1. D&W - $148/$414 2. IO2 - $118/$378 3. DM4 - $65*/$291 4. Furiosa - $62/$184 5. BB:RoD - $56/$151 6. Twisters - $46/$147 7. AQP:DO - $44/$136 8. KotPotA - $48/$133 9. Garfield - $42/128 10. Horizon 1 - $27/$118 11. Horizon 2 - $35/$96 12. IF - $32/$92 13. Alien: Romulus - $34/$91 14. Trap - $28/$84 15. It Ends With Us - $14*/$80 The Fall Guy is not going to make less than It Ends with us and Furiosa is not opening and doing better than BB:ROD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazymoviekid Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 minutes ago, emoviefan said: The Fall Guy is not going to make less than It Ends with us and Furiosa is not opening and doing better than BB:ROD. WHOOPS! Forgot about TFG. Let me go back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 BB:ROD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 7 hours ago, crazymoviekid said: Aight, here are my current summer predictions. Thoughts? It's opening weekend/total domestic *Wednesday release 1. D&W - $148/$414 2. IO2 - $118/$378 3. DM4 - $65*/$291 4. Furiosa - $62/$184 5. BB:RoD - $56/$151 6. Twisters - $46/$147 7. AQP:DO - $44/$136 8. KotPotA - $48/$133 9. Garfield - $42/128 10. The Fall Guy - $36/$120 11. Horizon 1 - $27/$118 12. Horizon 2 - $35/$96 13. IF - $32/$92 14. Alien: Romulus - $34/$91 15. Trap - $28/$84 16. It Ends With Us - $14*/$80 Overall similar to mine which are: 1. Inside Out 2 (170/530) 2. Deadpool 3 (185/460) 3. DM4 (135 5-day/ 360) 4. Horizon 1 (51/172) 5. Bad Boys (58/168) 6. Quiet Place (59/167) 7. Garfield (49/158) 8. Horizon 2 (55/155) 9. Twisters (50/150) 10. Planet of the Apes (49/143) 11. Furiosa (42/135) 12. Fall Guy (30/96) 13. Alien Romulus (36/92) 14. IF (30/90) 15. Trap (29/79) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnumbers Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) People thinking this year will catch up to 2023 should just stop already. Not gonna happen. Just hope we end only 1B or less behind. Nothing about this year makes sense to see it go there. Edited May 1 by justnumbers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) 12 minutes ago, justnumbers said: People thinking this year will catch up to 2023 should just stop already. Not gonna happen. Just hope we end only 1B or less behind. Nothing about this year makes sense to see it go there. I mean if it doesn't it doesn't. I just think the way the back half of the year looks right now there is the stuff there to do it. People are still gonna despair about the state of the year whether I try to hold on to an optimistic outlook or not, would rather not just be adding another voice to that despair. Plus if I do happen to be right by some miracle I get to be smug about it. Edited May 1 by AniNate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 5 hours ago, poweranimals said: BB:ROD? Bad Boys: Ride Or Die 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 I think this year ultimately has more 200m grossers than 2023 and only about two or three less 100m grosses by my calculations, but still ends up a billion behind. The fact that the highest of the year (Moana 2 and Deadpool) will top about 400m each in my books puts it about 400m+ in yearly total alone behind 2023 when you compare to Barbie and Mario as the top two last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) Thing is last year had almost nothing really big after Barbenheimer save for Wonka, mid-August on potentially looks like a consistent climb back up A lot of more modest efforts with $100mil potential still don't have release dates yet I imagine (Eras ofc just got like a month+ of notice), so reserving judgment on how the season will look as far as that is concerned. The sheer amount of $200mil movies in the second half does make it look a lot better though imo, and hopefully what little boost the summer does have will keep the hole from getting insurmountably deep. Edited May 1 by AniNate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Movies that finished over $200 mil last year: Barbie 636.23 The Super Mario Bros Movie 574.93 Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse 381.31 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 359 Oppenheimer 326.1 The Little Mermaid 298.17 Wonka 218 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 214.5 Total gross from these: $3.008 billion Movies in 2024 with potential to meet or get close to $200mil (rough box office projection) Deadpool & Wolverine $448 Mufasa: The Lion King $349 Joker: Folie a Deux $330 Inside Out 2 $310 Dune: Part Two $282 Despicable Me 4 $280 Venom: The Last Dance $208 Gladiator II $204 Moana 2 $204 Wicked $196 Beetlejuice $196 Twisters $193 Total gross from these: $3.202 billion So I think there is a realistic scenario where tentpole-wise at least, 2024 still comes out ahead. It does rely on everything received as well as it's expected to be ofc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 13 hours ago, crazymoviekid said: Aight, here are my current summer predictions. Thoughts? It's opening weekend/total domestic *Wednesday release 1. D&W - $148/$414 2. IO2 - $118/$378 3. DM4 - $65*/$291 4. Furiosa - $62/$184 5. BB:RoD - $56/$151 6. Twisters - $46/$147 7. AQP:DO - $44/$136 8. KotPotA - $48/$133 9. Garfield - $42/128 10. The Fall Guy - $36/$120 11. Horizon 1 - $27/$118 12. Horizon 2 - $35/$96 13. IF - $32/$92 14. Alien: Romulus - $34/$91 15. Trap - $28/$84 16. It Ends With Us - $14*/$80 Those DM4 numbers just nah . Opening on holiday weekend . Think 110M+ opening 5 day at the very least. IO2 will already 3 weeks in release so won't bother it . It and Deadpool cater to different audience . This going to have lots of room . It's opening big and legging out . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Personally I'm also feeling pretty bullish on Wild Robot possibly hitting that mark but I know as of right now it's not an easy case to make Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazymoviekid Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 2 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said: Those DM4 numbers just nah . Opening on holiday weekend . Think 110M+ opening 5 day at the very least. IO2 will already 3 weeks in release so won't bother it . It and Deadpool cater to different audience . This going to have lots of room . It's opening big and legging out . Minions are big, but DM 3 showed some signs of fatigue from the main franchise. That had a 5-day opening to $99M. If my $65M opening plays out, it will go to $110M 5-day. Those 4th of July mid-week releases have around 4.25x+ legs. With no competition, DM4 will have a bit better legs at around 4.5x. Think this is fairly reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 On 3/31/2024 at 9:35 PM, JimmyB said: Boxofficemojo has March's box office at 752m could go up or down a little once actuals come in but a solid 18% increase over March 2023. 2015-2019 March box office averaged 925m. So, still down alot vs pre covid. What I got right about March 2024 was February holders were going to do poorly and they did. Everything else I got wrong, lol. Dune just carrying the month. Grossing around 34% of the entire month's box office. The new comers that weren't known IP did poorly. Imaginary (26m), Cabrini (18.1m), Arthur (19m), Love Lies Bleeding (7m), Immaculate (11m). Wish something would have broken out for at least 40-50m. April 2024 is going to be all about the March holdovers. Kong, Dune,, GB, Panda and the other holdovers 210m. New comers...Monkey Man and the Omen both 25-30m. Civil War 50m. Abigail 30m. Ungentlemanly Warfare and Spy X both 15m. Challengers 25m. Other films 20m. 420m for the month. Just a BRUTAL month unless one of the new releases pops. What I got right about April 2024 pretty much everything, lol. Box Office Mojo has April's box office at 420m but that's missing Tuesday's numbers so probably around 430m is the real number for April. I think Summer will be around 3.4 billion. Summer of 2022 numbers. Kids movies are going to lead the way. May isnt going to be pretty under 700m. But, June has Garfield coming in hot from Memorial weekend, Bad Boys, Inside Out 2 should lead to June just being under a billion. Maybe Horizon can pull a Sound of Freedom. July with Twisters, Deadpool and DM4 plus the holdovers from June should lead to a billion dollar month. August is filled with wild cards and late summer movie dumps. Looks like last year's August IMO. 700-800m August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 18 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said: Minions are big, but DM 3 showed some signs of fatigue from the main franchise. That had a 5-day opening to $99M. If my $65M opening plays out, it will go to $110M 5-day. Those 4th of July mid-week releases have around 4.25x+ legs. With no competition, DM4 will have a bit better legs at around 4.5x. Think this is fairly reasonable. DM3 was baaaaaad. Looks like DM4 is going full looney tunes which means WOM should be better, and it's building on the success of Minions 2 and Gentleminions meme. Very dead summer for families so DM4 and Inside Out will be the biggest movies of 2024 next to Deadpool, but that's rated R and not an option for little kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMC Theaters Enjoyer Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Be interesting to see where Dune and GxK end up by the end of the year. Like it’s safe to say that Inside Out, Deadpool & Wolverine and Despicable Me 4 will outgross them but what else? I still think Twisters and Gladiator are to watch for some great performances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 OK I'm ready to make my first quarter 2024 predictions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 (edited) I was looking at last year's thread and people were locking in 300m for Indy and Flash. 400m for Mermaid. 200m plus for Mi7, The Marvels, Fast X. 100m plus for Haunted Mansion. Some 200m love for Aquaman. My point is a bunch of movies coming out in the 2nd half of 2024 will disappoint. Edited May 2 by JimmyB 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
