Weekdays (8-11 May, 2023) Thread.

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Daily business ratio between GoTG 3 & GoTG 2 from FRI till WED.

 

77.28%

75.78%

80.33%

90.54%

92.17%

94.32%

 

If we can score better than 5% drop Th that will be sick but I am thinking ratio floats 90-95 for next 4 days and then picks back up a bit. Over L&T looking good… just like it did on Sat.

[ChipDerby]

My club is BACK ON

[cooldude97]

37 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

 

Wonder how he'll react when it doesn't 

[DisposedData]

2 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Wonder how he'll react when it doesn't 

For his sake let's hope it does because people are ready to pounce if the 60m+ weekend does not pan out..

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Wonder how he'll react when it doesn't 

Sure anything can happen but from 7M WED, $60M weekend is more likely than not.

Edited May 11, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Mulder]

Hoping it's 60m+ but honestly imo anything 50m+ would be good.

 

EDIT: For context anything above 50 would be the best 2nd weekend drop for an MCU movie since Shang-Chi.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Mulder

[Legion Again]

55M clears the “best mcu sequel 2nd wknd drop ever” bar and that is pretty much done deal. So I don’t want to hear about “muh mcu sequel avg legs” ever again. Apply avg based analysis to movie’s performing avg. When you apply average based analysis to movie’s not playing out avg you get nothing but nonsense.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[Flopped]

Is it just me or is there very little buzz for Fast X? Do we think it's gonna cut into GOTG3's legs? 

[DisposedData]

7 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Is it just me or is there very little buzz for Fast X? Do we think it's gonna cut into GOTG3's legs? 

Probably not domestically but I have a hard time believing it won't have an impact overseas.

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

 

 

I refuse to believe that this guy is an adult.

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, Agafin said:

I refuse to believe that this guy is an adult.

He is a kid playing with Dad's Datasheet lol..

[Agafin]

4 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Probably not domestically but I have a hard time believing it won't have an impact overseas.

Even domestically, it's gonna lose PLF screens so even with an underforming Fast X, GotG3 will be hit.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

13 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Is it just me or is there very little buzz for Fast X? Do we think it's gonna cut into GOTG3's legs? 

I'm going to be honest and say no. Not by too much. @ViewerAnon alluded to it being worse than F9 and not even having a real ending, which I doubt the average Joe will be receptive to. There will be some impact on its opening weekend, but I imagine Guardians 3 will stabilize again afterwards.

[screambaby]

Guy would reduce his ulcers if he stopped caring reddit thought. 

 

[Legion Again]

Gotg3 over F10 for memorial 4day 🤔

[M37]

6 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Look I’ve been trying to be circumspect about this but when you wrote that post the data in hand didn’t support the range at all. We got like a 30-40th percentile outcome from there you were just WAY bearish on how it was going to finish. 

 

QM only appeared to vindicate the PS bears because it turned out to be a huge mess and that has tainted a lot of perceptions since then about low numbers being smarter/more sober analysis when they aren’t really.

 

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That less than 100M projection was BS for GoTG2. The biggest problem of M37 analysis was he probably didn’t had data (or knew) how normal CBM pre-sales are supposed to go. 
 

He was predicting 13-15M previews comparing with films that had 30M previews which is fundamentally wrong and that’s why he was all about this has STRONG growth in final days, when it was barely normal. In fact it took a meh Walkups on THU to end with $18M otherwise where it was placed on TUE night, $20M was likely with normal proceedings.

 

He could have been better off including Black Widow in his comps but I suppose he didn’t have data on it.

 

I suppose its good to at least have that out in the open...

[M37]

At least the Avatar Bros were almost always positive in their love and expectations for box office performance ... but this movie seems to have really broken some people's brains, and the condescension and toxicity has gone over the top

 

Think its best to step away for a while. I suppose someone else who actually knows how pre-sales are supposed to go can post non-BS forecasts from now on

 

[Legion Again]

31 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

I suppose its good to at least have that out in the open...

I mean, what did you think I meant when I said I was avoiding the buzz thread to avoid getting into fights with people over extremely gloomy forecasts I disagreed with 😅  

 

I like a lot of what you do but this particular case is better as a “admit you were a bit off and move on” than an insist it made sense at the time.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

At least the Avatar Bros were almost always positive in their love and expectations for box office performance ... but this movie seems to have really broken some people's brains, and the condescension and toxicity has gone over the top

 

Think its best to step away for a while. I suppose someone else who actually knows how pre-sales are supposed to go can post non-BS forecasts from now on

 

Sorry to hear that, but if it’s not feeling right then taking a step back for a bit sounds healthy.   
 

It has indeed “broken a lot of people’s brains” and let’s not pretend the condescension has been one sided.

[Issac Newton]