Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Flash probably would have "steadied the ship" and dropped in the 50s this week if it kept most of its theatres but unlike Quantumania in the springnit doesn't have that luxury with a new tentpole popping up every other week.

 

A collapse for the history books.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

The first thing you learn about people is that cognitive bias is very indeed real even if they don't realize it (which is very likely, everybody has it). At some point you just gotta accept that and move on.

I also have to remember that, at the end of the day, movie studios aren't changing their plans based on an online bubble community of Box Office enthusiasts.

[The Dark Alfred]

58 minutes ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:

Latest Bond and MI films did great overseas. This is flopping horrendously internationally.

 

Breaking news: this is a domestic weekend thread.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Did you read anything I wrote beyond the first sentence? I'm not making a case for Indy. I'm making the case that Disney can survive flops way better than other studios, so while this forum is arguing which film bombed harder (they both did awful and they both will lose their respective studios' money), Warner Brothers can't fall back on their Theme Park division because they don't have one!

 

That's why I find the Disney focus so funny sometimes. They can afford to release bomb after bomb as long as their Theme Park division doesn't suffer, and it isn't suffering, so I'm way more worried about Warner Brothers and the rumors they're being forced to sell parts of their catalogue to stay solvent!

 

Seeing the 2 executives leave, then the Pixar layoffs, and now the ESPN layoffs, Disney is still fine, but they are clearly in "tighten the belt" mode everywhere corporately.  We'll see if that continues over to the overall movie and budgets that get greenlighted later this year...

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

Breaking news: this is a domestic weekend thread.

 

Technically, it's just a weekend thread for almost anything...but we do tend to focus on domestic most weekends b/c that's the numbers we get...

[M37]

21 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Pending reviews, I would expect multi to be a fair better than Nope which I think was fairly divisive. But a wide gap between a Dunkirk multi and Nope’s multi. Subject material and competition is a knock against it, but feel length may actually play into its favor with multi. Affects rewatches but may spread out when people get around to it due to the commitment of time. Think it can pull closer to a 3x or so

Nope was 2.8x, a 3x would have been only like $12M more; Dunkirk was 3.8x. So doesn’t sound like we’re really that far apart here 

[FunkMiller]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Did you read anything I wrote beyond the first sentence? I'm not making a case for Indy. I'm making the case that Disney can survive flops way better than other studios, so while this forum is arguing which film bombed harder (they both did awful and they both will lose their respective studios' money), Warner Brothers can't fall back on their Theme Park division because they don't have one!

 

 

There isn't a movie company out there that is more impacted by each and every flop than Warner Bros. The colossal debt the company is in means that films like the Flash cratering could actually bring the whole damn thing down - especially if Blue Beetle and Aquaman 2 do as bad, which is very possible at this stage.

 

I would feel sorry for WB, but they've made such terrible decisions over DC for the last decade that I just don't.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Seeing the 2 executives leave, then the Pixar layoffs, and now the ESPN layoffs, Disney is still fine, but they are clearly in "tighten the belt" mode everywhere corporately.  We'll see if that continues over to the overall movie and budgets that get greenlighted later this year...

 

Any studio that isn't tightening their belt or, at the very least, looking to reduce budgets all-around right now is making a mistake. This is not a great theater year for any studio. To pretend like Disney is suffering as much as or worse than Warner Brothers is laughable.

[Grebacio]

 Indiana Jones  $24,000,000 per the numbers 

[ringedmortality]

The old Hollywood is dying, and the new Hollywood struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters

 

[MrPink]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Nope was 2.8x, a 3x would have been only like $12M more; Dunkirk was 3.8x. So doesn’t sound like we’re really that far apart here 

OW was slightly lower than I remember, but I do think a similar opening for Oppenheimer with strong reviews would be more 140m, with potential to do a bit more

[Gavin Feng]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

 Indiana Jones  $24,000,000 per the numbers 

 

No overestimate. From now on, Deadline is the best trade we ever get.

[druv10]

1	N	Indiana Jones and the Dia…	Walt Disney	$24,000,000			4,600	$5,217	$24,000,000	1
2	(2)	Spider-Man: Across the Sp…	Sony Pictures	$3,435,000	+45%	-40%	3,405	$1,009	$331,807,175	29
3	(1)	Elemental	Walt Disney	$3,400,000	+38%	-40%	3,650	$932	$80,878,805	15
4	N	Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	Universal	$2,340,000			3,400	$688	$2,340,000	1
5	(3)	No Hard Feelings	Sony Pictures	$2,250,000	+64%	-65%	3,208	$701	$24,060,952	8
6	(5)	Transformers: Rise of the…	Paramount Pi…	$1,920,000	+57%	-41%	2,852	$673	$131,030,355	22
7	(4)	The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	$1,550,000	+27%	-41%	2,430	$638	$277,398,328	36
8	(6)	The Flash	Warner Bros.	$1,420,000	+29%	-68%	2,718	$522	$95,671,435	15
9	(7)	Asteroid City	Focus Features	$1,180,000	+47%	-69%	1,901	$621	$15,524,996	15
10	(9)	The Boogeyman	20th Century…	$575,000	+92%	-29%	1,020	$564	$39,837,215	29
11	(8)	Guardians of the Galaxy V…	Walt Disney	$525,000	+35%	-47%	1,165	$451	$353,600,623	57
12	(-)	Past Lives	A24	$510,078	+128%	+40%	906	$563	$4,821,764	29
-	(-)	Fast X	Universal	$110,000	+32%	-63%	550	$200	$145,194,410	43
-	(-)	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Universal	$59,000	-9%	-43%	450	$131	$573,341,620	87
-	N	Every Body	Focus Features	$47,000			255	$184	$47,000	1

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, druv10 said:

Elemental Walt Disney $3,400,000 +38%

kind of disappointed in this... but there's still Saturday to consider.

[LegionWrex]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

1	N	Indiana Jones and the Dia…	Walt Disney	$24,000,000			4,600	$5,217	$24,000,000	1
2	(2)	Spider-Man: Across the Sp…	Sony Pictures	$3,435,000	+45%	-40%	3,405	$1,009	$331,807,175	29
3	(1)	Elemental	Walt Disney	$3,400,000	+38%	-40%	3,650	$932	$80,878,805	15
4	N	Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	Universal	$2,340,000			3,400	$688	$2,340,000	1
5	(3)	No Hard Feelings	Sony Pictures	$2,250,000	+64%	-65%	3,208	$701	$24,060,952	8
6	(5)	Transformers: Rise of the…	Paramount Pi…	$1,920,000	+57%	-41%	2,852	$673	$131,030,355	22
7	(4)	The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	$1,550,000	+27%	-41%	2,430	$638	$277,398,328	36
8	(6)	The Flash	Warner Bros.	$1,420,000	+29%	-68%	2,718	$522	$95,671,435	15
9	(7)	Asteroid City	Focus Features	$1,180,000	+47%	-69%	1,901	$621	$15,524,996	15
10	(9)	The Boogeyman	20th Century…	$575,000	+92%	-29%	1,020	$564	$39,837,215	29
11	(8)	Guardians of the Galaxy V…	Walt Disney	$525,000	+35%	-47%	1,165	$451	$353,600,623	57
12	(-)	Past Lives	A24	$510,078	+128%	+40%	906	$563	$4,821,764	29
-	(-)	Fast X	Universal	$110,000	+32%	-63%	550	$200	$145,194,410	43
-	(-)	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Universal	$59,000	-9%	-43%	450	$131	$573,341,620	87
-	N	Every Body	Focus Features	$47,000			255	$184	$47,000	1

Spider-Verse and Elemental continue to be neck and neck, jesus.

[filmlover]

Happy to see Elemental hanging on. $130M+ should be guaranteed now.

 

Despite being a holiday weekend, drops for next weekend should be acceptable with little in the way of competition before the July heavy-hitters arrive (the two new openers being a horror sequel and an R-rated comedy).

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

I think Elemental is struggling because Indy + Ruby Gillman, despite both bombing are tapping into the family demographic quite hard. Similar to how Flash/Elemental tapped into the same demographics as ATSV and caused that to have a big drop too. Hopefully it steadies the ship after this week because I don't think MI7/Barbie/Oppenheimer will hurt it as much.

[Bob Train]

Ruby Gillman bombed but still had an effect on Elemental clearly

[YM!]

Not a world shattering hold for Elemental but considering competition from Gillman and screen loss, it’s still a good hold. If it follows Pixar’s recent June openers, 10.5-11.5M third weekend.

[Flopped]

The Flasher bombing this hard without any significant competition is just wild. Knowing that WB spent more on marketing than even Disney did on Guardians 3 makes it all the funnier.