The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Dlund87]

What's most impressive about Barbie is that it has a real shot at opening well over 100 million and doing super hero movie numbers while not having any premium screens and being sandwiched between arguably the biggest director in Hollywood in terms of big theatrical movies and the biggest moviestar on the planet doing am insanely popular action film while coming off the biggest film in his career in Maverick. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:33 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Mission: Impossible 7 MiniTC2 T-21

 

EA - 370/4044 (12 showings) $6119
TUE - 459/55575 (204 showings) $6636

 

Comps (without Walmart)

1.08x Transformers - $9.5M (with Walmart $11.5M-ish)

0.66x Indy 5

 

 

Mission: Impossible 7 MiniTC T-5

 

Walmart - 595/3772 (17 showings) $5745
EA - 1087/4045 (12 showings) $17890
Previews - 983/63966 (246 showings) $14050
 

Comps (with Walmart)

1.19x Transformers - $10.5M

1.08x Indy - $7.8M

0.91x John Wick - $8.1M

 

Some life in sales after reviews, was concerning till now. Ideally, with so many extra shows, sales should be a lot higher.

WED - 834/97742 (390 showings) $11360
 

Opening day sales are also low. 
 

Comps

0.35x Indy - $5.2M

0.50x Transformers - $8.3M

0.23x John Wick - $4.6M

 

Weekend sales are relatively better here.

[MattW]

I could have this backwards but I'd guess walkups for Sun/Mon/Tue previews will be somewhat worse than normal Thursday previews. Maybe in July it doesn't make enough of a difference to matter though. 

[rehpyc]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

comp avg is very similar to other trackers. The pace here just isn't spectacular

Porthos avg is $8M

Rehpyc avg is $7.4M

Katniss avg is $7.9M

Also should be noted that Porthos’s figures at similar theaters don’t account for Tuesday discounting, which he indicates, so inherently they will run a bit higher than my comps.

 

I’ll make sure to add a note to future updates that my figures account for the Tuesday discounting.

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 hours ago, Dlund87 said:

What's most impressive about Barbie is that it has a real shot at opening well over 100 million and doing super hero movie numbers while not having any premium screens and being sandwiched between arguably the biggest director in Hollywood in terms of big theatrical movies and the biggest moviestar on the planet doing am insanely popular action film while coming off the biggest film in his career in Maverick. 

AMC is giving Barbie screens at Dolby Cinemas , they are basically the same price as IMAX at my cinema

[emoviefan]

41 minutes ago, MattW said:

I could have this backwards but I'd guess walkups for Sun/Mon/Tue previews will be somewhat worse than normal Thursday previews. Maybe in July it doesn't make enough of a difference to matter though. 

I have been saying that for a while now. This is not a superhero or kid skewing film. The target adult audience is working on those days even in the summer. Also this is not a front loaded blow the load type in a few days franchise. So I hope we don't get the doom and gloom sky is falling hysteria if those early days don't look all that great. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	55	7524	8656	1132	13.08%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	408
Total Seats Sold Today	48

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	43.62		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	10.32%		7.85m
BP2	16.03		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	6.74%		4.49m
FX	108.12		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	27.46%		8.11m
Indy 5	89.98		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	23.75%		6.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     2 31/2968  [7.78% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 1.15% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 496/776 [+11 tickets] [43.82% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    444/4508 [+25 tickets] [39.22% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           192/3372 [+12 tickets] [16.96% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	57	7688	8888	1200	13.50%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	232
Total Seats Sold Today	68

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	44.33		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	10.94%		7.98m
BP2	16.55		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	7.14%		4.63m
FX	109.19		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	29.11%		8.19m
Indy 5	91.12		59	1317		0/128	18924/20241	6.51%		4767	25.17%		6.56m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       249/3198  [7.79% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 1.08% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 514/776 [+18 tickets] [42.83% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    485/4508 [+41 tickets] [40.42% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           201/3604 [+9 tickets] [16.75% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	97	10623	12612	1989	15.77%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	176

*The one added showing was from the local drive-in theater which has non-reserved seating

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	47.76		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	15.80%		9.20m
JWD	74.76		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	16.53%		13.46m
BA	212.54		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	40.34%		15.94m
Ava 2	67.27		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	20.18%		11.44m
Scream 6	292.42		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		3134	57.85%		16.67m
Wick 4	166.79		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	33.28%		14.84m
FX	191.24		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	43.98%		14.34m
TLM	125.90		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	27.63%		12.97m
AtSV	95.82		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	18.61%		16.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:       372/4252  [8.75% sold]
Matinee:    102/1757  [5.81% | 5.63% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:       353/423 [83.45% sold] [-2 tickets sold]
Thr:    1460/12189 [11.98% sold] [+162 tickets sold]

 

=========

 

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	99	10577	12713	2136	16.80%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	147

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	49.49		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	18.62%		9.53m
JWD	78.91		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	19.48%		14.20m
BA	219.08		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	47.53%		16.43m
Ava 2	72.48		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	23.77%		12.32m
Scream 6	303.41		48	704		0/78	9156/9860	7.14%		3134	68.16%		17.29m
Wick 4	173.52		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	39.21%		15.44m
FX	194.36		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	51.82%		14.58m
TLM	131.53		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	32.56%		13.55m
AtSV	103.24		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	21.92%		17.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     414/4252  [9.74% sold]
Matinee:    128/1757  [7.29% | 5.99% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:     362/506 [71.54% sold] [+2 tickets sold]
Thr:    1774/12207 [14.53% sold] [+145 tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 7/7/2023 at 12:45 AM, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	161	23004	25015	2011	8.04%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	450
Total Seats Sold Today	258

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	130.08		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	53.81%		8.06m
JWD	43.54		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	18.34%		7.84m
Ava 2	42.92		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	22.38%		7.30m
Wick 4	97.43		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	36.91%		8.67m
FX	123.00		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	48.79%		9.22m
Indy 5	98.72		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	42.19%		7.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:         356/8206  [4.34% sold]
Matinee:        71/1805  [3.93% | 3.53% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    413/6193  [6.67% | 20.54% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:           121/456 [26.54% sold] [+31 tickets]
Mon:       668/2289 [29.18% sold] [+44 tickets]
Tue:       1219/22207 [5.49% sold] [+180 tickets]

 

===

 

Better.

 

Much much better.

 

I have no idea what happened yesterday.  Maybe the review bounce took an extra day to filter out?  Sun/Mon/Tue release vs Thr release throwing off the pattern? Just one of those things of Random Variation Is Random? I don't even fucking know.  Do know this was a much better day.

 

Sunday shows are starting to pick up as well.  The two main wrinkles here are:

 

1] Comparing a T-5 Sat with a T-5 Thr.

and

2] The Sunday tickets are starting their ramp-up, meaning the early EA bounce is starting to be felt.

 

Still, even with those cautionary notes, I'd say this is a good sign for the final days of pre-sales.

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	176	23860	26190	2330	8.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	1175
Total Seats Sold Today	319

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	136.82		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	62.35%		8.48m
JWD	44.23		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	21.25%		7.96m
Ava 2	45.74		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	25.93%		7.78m
Wick 4	101.08		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	42.77%		9.00m
FX	129.88		159	1794		0/179	26350/28144	6.37%		4122	56.53%		9.74m
Indy 5	102.78		230	2267		0/134	18442/20709	10.95%		4973	46.85%		7.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp WILL come down when sales are final.

Regal:          427/8767  [4.87% sold]
Matinee:        85/1992  [4.27% | 3.65% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    475/6568  [7.23% | 20.39% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          144/456 [31.58% sold] [+23 tickets]
Mon:       739/2288 [32.30% sold] [+71 tickets]
Tue:    1442/23383 [6.17% sold] [+223 tickets]

Edited July 9, 2023 by Porthos

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

All three movies look like they had great jumps with their comps. Nice to see some good news after these last few weeks.

[Borobudur]

Review bump is real and running hot for MI7, the pace is either steady or accelerating regionally. 

[M37]

6 hours ago, rehpyc said:

I’ll make sure to add a note to future updates that my figures account for the Tuesday discounting.

I was actually going to ask you about this, so to confirm, your comps values are based on $/$ rather than ticket/ticket, correct?

[M37]

On 7/1/2023 at 9:12 AM, M37 said:

Updating this chart, but focusing on just the Barbie and Oppenheimer duel, and the relative ratio of sales in each market, at T-27 vs a week later at T-20 (last round of updates). Do not have a recent Alpha or MiniTC update (CC @across the Jat verse), but in every single market, Barbie - despite shooting out of the gate with a later sales start and with minimal PLF shows that normally gobble up early sales - continues to outpace Oppenheimer in sales, even in samples where it was already way ahead like Drafthouse and Orlando.

 

 

Somebody is going to have to convince me why Barbie* won't at least double Oppenheimer's preview and OW, and even though I'm lower on Opp than others (still sub-$50M), a $100M+ is very much in play

 

*We need a nickname for this film, like Pink Panther (or something better)

I plan on doing a full preview sales update for Barbenheimer Sunday, but as an appetizer, here is the relative sales volume as the most recent updates

 

Drafthouse looks to have peaked and is coming back down, as Barbie sales are now limited by lack of capacity. while Orlando also has settled into a 3x holding pattern. The rest of the samples are still largely on the rise, though slowly over the past few days

 

Again, I believe the only thing stopping Barbie from at least doubling Oppenhiemer for preview ticket sales (not necessarily $ value) will be whether or not there are enough seats allocated

[vafrow]

On 7/6/2023 at 6:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-6 Milton, ON

 

Sales continue to be strong. Even the ATSV comp is in the double digits. New showtimes were added for the following week, and MI7 is the first movie since Fast X at my theatre to get two screens for its preview night.

 

2.750x of Fast X for $20.6M

3.850x of T:ROTB for $33.8M

11.000x of Indy 5 for $76.2M

0.636x of ATSV for $11.0M

2.567x of Flash for $24.9M

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-4 Milton, ON

 

Not slowing down at all. This is clearly a film that's likely over indexing in my area, even though I wouldn't guess that it's the type of film to do that here. Demographics are young families. It also might be the timing. With Canadian schools in session right up until end of June, people only now are in full summer mode.

 

2.429x of Fast X for $18.2M

4.636x of T:ROTB for $40.8M

10.200x of Indy 5 for $73.4M

0.703x of ATSV for $12.4M

2.684x of Flash for $26.0M

 

[vafrow]

On 7/6/2023 at 6:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-22

 

Seeing sales so strong in other markets for this, I thought I'd check in again for that southern Ontario radius (London to Clarington).

 

Ticket sales for Thursday preview is only at 17 sold. So, still ridiculously slow for a major market.

 

I did see the trailer during the weekend when I went to see Indiana Jones, so, it is getting promotion up here.

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-20

 

Got bored this morning so did another manual count.

 

3 more tickets sold in last 48 hours to get it to 20.

[rehpyc]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

I was actually going to ask you about this, so to confirm, your comps values are based on $/$ rather than ticket/ticket, correct?

 

Correct

 

15 hours ago, rehpyc said:

T-5 MI7

JWD: 6.39M

JW4: 8.51M

AtSV: 7.78M

FX: 8.73M

Flash: 6.69M

IJ: 6.13M

 

All comps short of JW4 were running flat (JW4 was on the down) from T-15 to T-7, at which point each has been on the up-n-up.

 

T-4 MI7

JWD: 6.56M

JW4: 8.85M

AtSV: 8.30M

FX: 9.21M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.57M

 

*All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

[Dragoncaine]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-4 Milton, ON

 

Not slowing down at all. This is clearly a film that's likely over indexing in my area, even though I wouldn't guess that it's the type of film to do that here. Demographics are young families. It also might be the timing. With Canadian schools in session right up until end of June, people only now are in full summer mode.

 

2.429x of Fast X for $18.2M

4.636x of T:ROTB for $40.8M

10.200x of Indy 5 for $73.4M

0.703x of ATSV for $12.4M

2.684x of Flash for $26.0M

 

These preview comps are what every MI since Ghost Protocol deserves lol

[John Rambo]

12 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

 

Correct

 

 

T-4 MI7

JWD: 6.56M

JW4: 8.85M

AtSV: 8.30M

FX: 9.21M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.57M

 

*All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

i am sorry these comps are based on which city?

[rehpyc]

1 minute ago, John Rambo said:

i am sorry these comps are based on which city?

A full MTC, so the whole of US. In the future I'll likely break things down a bit further to some major DMAs.

[Borobudur]

42 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

 

Correct

 

 

T-4 MI7

JWD: 6.56M

JW4: 8.85M

AtSV: 8.30M

FX: 9.21M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.57M

 

*All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

Does this mean $100m by Sunday is now a possibility for MI7?