The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MightyDargon]

Okay but what did Mutant Mayhem get?

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Barbie literally saving WB from two potentially big losses following it.

or baby shark just hides the biggest surprise of the summer in her toothy mouth 

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Barbie literally saving WB from two potentially big losses following it.

The Meg 2 is co-produced with chinese CMC Pictures.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Meg will do fine.

[Duher]

17 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

So this is a table of tickets sold at a variety of theaters in the Jacksonville, Phoenix and Raleigh areas. Strays has early access (EA) shows in 7 of those theaters and has sold a combined three tickets out of a possible 922 seats.  Strays previews have sold 39 tickets (3 since yesterday) out of a possible 6,681 seats.  Below the chart are comparisons of how Strays 42 total tickets sold as of 16 days before previews relates to other movies sampled at the same time.  Easter Sunday had sold 12 tickets total at 16 days before previews.  Strays is at 3.5x that amount.  Easter Sunday made 500k in previews.  3.5 x 500k = $1.75m (this assumes Strays follows the same pattern as Easter Sunday and finishes with 3.5x the amount of tickets sold).  

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-16	Jax	6	15	1	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	2	14	2,081	0.67%
		Ral	6	18	0	16	2,703	0.59%
	Total		17	53	3	39	6,681	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.5x (1.75m)

 - D&D (Total) - .261x (1.46m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.2x (1.32m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.75x (1.31m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .385x (771k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.29m

 

Thank you, things are way clearer now!

[SpiderByte]

WB is going to have the highest grossing movie in possibly the studios entire history and they're still gonna have bombed the entire calendar year

[el sid]

Meg 2 counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 97 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 29 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 107 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 338.

Comps (all three films counted on Tuesday of the release week for Thursday): 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (516k from previews) had 38 sold tickets in 4 theaters,
Crawl (1M) had 146 sold tickets in 6 theaters
and Beast (925k) had 147 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Uncharted (3.7M) had on Wednesday 1.062 sold tickets
and Operation Fortune (220k) had also on Wednesday 96 sold tickets for Thursday.

So at the moment 2M+ from previews in my theaters.

Meg 2 counted yesterday for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 105 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 6 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 23 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 27 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 59 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 98 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 327. Not frontloaded.

Comps (all three films counted on Tuesday of the release week for Friday): 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (8.4M) had 18 sold tickets in 4 theaters,
Crawl (12M) had 121 sold tickets in 6 theaters
and Beast (11.6M) had 142 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Uncharted (44M) had on Wednesday 982 sold tickets
and Operation Fortune (3.1M) had also on Wednesday 96 sold tickets for Thursday.
 

New numbers in ca. 1 hour. It had a good Friday jump.

[keysersoze123]

I did post Shazam 2 on its OD presales. 

 

 

 

Blue beetle is 50% higher. But it has a shorter cycle. I would rather look at close to release. Final 3 days for Shazam 2 went like 34K/41k/69k

Edited August 2, 2023 by keysersoze123

[el sid]

Meg 2 counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 114 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 67 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 74 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 131 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 431.

Up ok 27.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (516k) had 41 sold tickets in 5 theaters (all other films had 7 theaters),
Crawl (1M) had 195 sold tickets,
Beast (925k) had 218 sold tickets,

Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 sold tickets,
65 (1.225M) had 224 sold tickets
and Operation Fortune (220k) had 96 sold tickets (I guess Meg 2 will have way better walk-ups; I just use this comp because Statham was also the main actor in OF).

Still ca. 2M from previews in my theaters.

Meg 2 counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 135 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 31 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 27 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 31 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 86 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 153 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 486. Not frontloaded at all. A good sign.

Up good 49% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (8.4M) had 47 sold tickets in 5 theaters,
Crawl (12M) had 170 sold tickets,
Beast (11.6M) had 202 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

65 (12.3M) had again 224 sold tickets,
Uncharted (44M) had 982 sold tickets
and Operation Fortune (3.1M) had 96 sold tickets.

Forgot Insidious: The Red Door (33M OW): It had 598 sold tickets.
 

So I lift my prediction to 25-30M OW.

Edited August 3, 2023 by el sid

[ringedmortality]

Maybe insidious really was the best comp for Meg

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Maybe insidious really was the best comp for Meg

 

@CJohn was the real Meg comp expert all along

[keysersoze123]

Looking at any one sample data to make the judgement is risky business. National data I see is still mediocre. 

[TheFlatLannister]

40 minutes ago, el sid said:

Meg 2 counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 114 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 67 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 74 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 131 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 431.

Up ok 27.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (516k) had 41 sold tickets in 5 theaters (all other films had 7 theaters),
Crawl (1M) had 195 sold tickets,
Beast (925k) had 218 sold tickets,

Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 sold tickets,
65 (1.225M) had 224 sold tickets
and Operation Fortune (220k) had 96 sold tickets (I guess Meg 2 will have way better walk-ups; I just use this comp because Statham was also the main actor in OF).

Still ca. 2M from previews in my theaters.

Meg 2 counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 135 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 31 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 27 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 31 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 86 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 153 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 486. Not frontloaded at all. A good sign.

Up good 49% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (8.4M) had 47 sold tickets in 5 theaters,
Crawl (12M) had 170 sold tickets,
Beast (11.6M) had 202 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

65 (12.3M) had again 224 sold tickets,
Uncharted (44M) had 982 sold tickets
and Operation Fortune (3.1M) had 96 sold tickets.
 

So I lift my prediction to 25-30M OW.

Previews definitely looks weak. But the weekend looks solid. Thx for the update 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

Okay but what did Mutant Mayhem get?

 

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

(3.85m in case this tweet ever disappears/Twitter breaks embedding for public sites one day)

 

Once again, Paramount looks to be pulling the Tuesday Only crapola.  Le sigh.

 

Still, do feel reasonably satisfied with this:

 

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-0] [FINAL]

4231/16080 (26.31% sold) [+1489 tickets]

 

0.64576x MI7 at T-0                       [5.68m]

0.58564x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-0    [4.10m]

 

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

Speaking of which, this should sell more kids tickets than MI7, so can't do a pure comp off of that, so let's go with:

 

If Paramount reports all previews      5.25m +/- .35m

If Paramount reports Tuesday Only:  3.75m +/- .25m

 

Always say Sacto Dark Magic doesn't necessarily apply for Q&D's but it that doesn't mean it doesn't, either. 👍

 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its obviously too early to tell how good the WOM for TMNT is, but i could imagine it performing a bit like Puss in Boots 2, maybe with a bigger opening, but a bit shorter legs.

A $50M 1st week and Lyle Crocodile - there’s nothing else for kids - fall legs gets to $150M 

[SpiderByte]

...is it time to start talking Dredd numbers vis a vis Blue Beetle

[Mojoguy]

46 minutes ago, M37 said:

A $50M 1st week and Lyle Crocodile - there’s nothing else for kids - fall legs gets to $150M 

That should be a good final DOM. Outside the first TMNT live action film, the films have never been that big.

 

Merchandise sales should be great.

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-0: 61.36% Awareness

Strays T-16: 32.39% Awareness

The Hill T-23: 15.67% Awareness

Dumb Money T-51: 13.48% Awareness

The Marvels T-100: 44.12% Awareness

Boys in the Boat T-145: 8.86% Awareness

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-219: 40.23% Awareness

 

Meg 2: The Trench T-2: 53.86% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 20M, 68% chance of 30M, 42% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

The Nun 2 T-37: 38.63% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 41% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-58: 28.48% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 56% chance of 10M, 28% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/31/2023 at 7:02 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 

COMPS

T-1

*Without EA

 

(0.439x) of Fast X

~$3.29M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.346x) of RoTB

~$3.04M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

(0.567x) of Mi7

~$3.97M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.43M TUE only + $1.5M EA = $4.93M

 

Would say $5M-$5.5M total previews. $3.4M TUESDAY. I will not have an update for tomorrow since i'll be working in the morning-afternoon. 

I’m happy with this considering I didn’t have a T-0 update. Only $400k off 

Edited August 2, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Deep Wang]

11 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

That should be a good final DOM. Outside the first TMNT live action film, the films have never been that big.

 

Merchandise sales should be great.

 

I'm guessing you forgot the reboot did very well lol