The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

katnisscinnaplex · September 3, 2023

On 9/2/2023 at 8:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Taylor Swift T-41 Jax 6 64 301 3,733 10,330 36.14%
Phx 6 67 413 6,997 11,445 61.14%
Ral 8 66 333 4,332 8,660 50.02%
Total 20 197 1,047 15,062 30,435 49.49%

Added 28 shows since yesterday and another 1k seats sold.

Comps against T-0 sales

- Super Mario - 1.393x (44.14m)

- Space Jam - 3.398x (44.51m)

- Barbie - 1.583x (33.56m)

- Paw Patrol - 10.73x (48.53m)

- My Hero Academia - 9.28x (26.76m)

- Demon Slayer - 5.56x (23.45m)

Comps against T-1 hr sales

- NWH - .434x (21.72m)

- Dr Strange - .653x (23.5m)

- BP2 - .852x (23.85m)

- Thor 4 - .92x (26.68m)

- Ant-Man 3 - 1.564x (27.37m)

This could be pretty representative of where the final could land, but I'll bump my prediction up to 30m. While I do think sales will keep rising, we're already at 50% full. People will have to make a choice between a 10pm+ show or waiting for the next day. Saturday should be well above Friday in gross though with the full day of shows.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-40	Jax	6	64	186	3,919	10,330	37.94%
		Phx	6	67	165	7,162	11,445	62.58%
		Ral	8	66	151	4,483	8,660	51.77%
	Total		20	197	502	15,564	30,435	51.14%

Comps against T-0 sales

- Super Mario - 1.439x (45.62m)

- Space Jam - 3.511x (45.99m)

- Barbie - 1.636x (34.68m)

- Paw Patrol - 11.09x (50.14m)

- My Hero Academia - 9.584x (27.65m)

- Demon Slayer - 5.74x (24.23m)

Comps against T-1 hr sales

- NWH - .449x (22.44m)

- Dr Strange - .675x (24.28m)

- BP2 - .88x (24.65m)

- Thor 4 - .951x (27.57m)

- Ant-Man 3 - 1.616x (28.28m)

I'm not on board with the higher predictions out there. About 85% of new sales in my area were from shows added Friday. 134/197 shows didn't sell a single ticket yesterday. Unless this starts adding earlier shows, I'd put the range at 30m-35m for Friday.

keysersoze123 · September 3, 2023

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Taylor Swift T-40 Jax 6 64 186 3,919 10,330 37.94%
Phx 6 67 165 7,162 11,445 62.58%
Ral 8 66 151 4,483 8,660 51.77%
Total 20 197 502 15,564 30,435 51.14%

Comps against T-0 sales

- Super Mario - 1.439x (45.62m)

- Space Jam - 3.511x (45.99m)

- Barbie - 1.636x (34.68m)

- Paw Patrol - 11.09x (50.14m)

- My Hero Academia - 9.584x (27.65m)

- Demon Slayer - 5.74x (24.23m)

Comps against T-1 hr sales

- NWH - .449x (22.44m)

- Dr Strange - .675x (24.28m)

- BP2 - .88x (24.65m)

- Thor 4 - .951x (27.57m)

- Ant-Man 3 - 1.616x (28.28m)

I'm not on board with the higher predictions out there. About 85% of new sales in my area were from shows added Friday. 134/197 shows didn't sell a single ticket yesterday. Unless this starts adding earlier shows, I'd put the range at 30m-35m for Friday.

I are you adjusting for ATP increase. I am assuming ATP in these markets are normally lower.

TheFlatLannister · September 3, 2023

20 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Taylor Swift T-40 Jax 6 64 186 3,919 10,330 37.94%
Phx 6 67 165 7,162 11,445 62.58%
Ral 8 66 151 4,483 8,660 51.77%
Total 20 197 502 15,564 30,435 51.14%

Comps against T-0 sales

- Super Mario - 1.439x (45.62m)

- Space Jam - 3.511x (45.99m)

- Barbie - 1.636x (34.68m)

- Paw Patrol - 11.09x (50.14m)

- My Hero Academia - 9.584x (27.65m)

- Demon Slayer - 5.74x (24.23m)

Comps against T-1 hr sales

- NWH - .449x (22.44m)

- Dr Strange - .675x (24.28m)

- BP2 - .88x (24.65m)

- Thor 4 - .951x (27.57m)

- Ant-Man 3 - 1.616x (28.28m)

I'm not on board with the higher predictions out there. About 85% of new sales in my area were from shows added Friday. 134/197 shows didn't sell a single ticket yesterday. Unless this starts adding earlier shows, I'd put the range at 30m-35m for Friday.

A $30M Friday would mean O/U $100M OW. That would be really good, but definitely a splash of cold water to the face moment.

cowboylikeme · September 3, 2023

59 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

作为增长模式和销售率的旁注，请记住，这可能不会有任何类型的标准促销（即广告），因此当泰勒间歇性地宣传电影时，会出现一些繁荣和萧条的周期。也许他们会在最后一两周内进行更主流的营销攻击，让 GA了解正在发生的事情。

1989TV will release on 27 OCT., it'll give it a big boost

abracadabra1998 · September 3, 2023

41 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Taylor Swift T-40 Jax 6 64 186 3,919 10,330 37.94%
Phx 6 67 165 7,162 11,445 62.58%
Ral 8 66 151 4,483 8,660 51.77%
Total 20 197 502 15,564 30,435 51.14%

Comps against T-0 sales

- Super Mario - 1.439x (45.62m)

- Space Jam - 3.511x (45.99m)

- Barbie - 1.636x (34.68m)

- Paw Patrol - 11.09x (50.14m)

- My Hero Academia - 9.584x (27.65m)

- Demon Slayer - 5.74x (24.23m)

Comps against T-1 hr sales

- NWH - .449x (22.44m)

- Dr Strange - .675x (24.28m)

- BP2 - .88x (24.65m)

- Thor 4 - .951x (27.57m)

- Ant-Man 3 - 1.616x (28.28m)

I'm not on board with the higher predictions out there. About 85% of new sales in my area were from shows added Friday. 134/197 shows didn't sell a single ticket yesterday. Unless this starts adding earlier shows, I'd put the range at 30m-35m for Friday.

Too conservative imo, sat into Sunday sales shouldn’t be indicative of what the next 40 days are gonna look

XXR & Friends · September 3, 2023

53 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Unless this starts adding earlier shows, I'd put the range at 30m-35m for Friday.

That just seems really low given where sales are at already and adjusting for ATP. Correct me if I’m wrong but your unadjusted T-1 MCU comps are already at ~$25M?

Ledmonkey96 · September 3, 2023

8 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

That just seems really low given where sales are at already and adjusting for ATP. Correct me if I’m wrong but your unadjusted T-1 MCU comps are already at ~$25M?

I'd think Barbie's T-0 of 35mil is the best comparison personally. Not sure how the ATP is done on those numbers though

Madhuvan · September 3, 2023

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I'd think Barbie's T-0 of 35mil is the best comparison personally. Not sure how the ATP is done on those numbers though

With adjusted ATP for Friday that would be like $55m-$60m Friday depending on how many Children tickets are sold.

Madhuvan · September 3, 2023

I would predict something like

$35m/$50m/$45m for now

SnokesLegs · September 3, 2023

51 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

A $30M Friday would mean O/U $100M OW. That would be really good, but definitely a splash of cold water to the face moment.

I find that figure to be much more believable than some that are getting thrown around. I completely accept that it’s going to be big for a concert movie, but I can’t see it being THAT big. I think we’re about to see sales skewing very heavily towards pre-sales with fairly minimal walk up business on the day. Given the fact that it’s just Friday night/Sat/Sun, the fans will treat this like they treat buying tickets for an actual concert, you don’t just turn up on the day, so pre-sales being at the level that they are isn’t too surprising.

The Swiftie’s are rabid, but I don’t think you can count on every fan to go watch this. Anecdotal, but I saw Kendrick Lamar live last year and loved it, I’m a huge fan, but I doubt I’d pay $20 to see a recorded version in a cinema. Live, absolutely, but not just a pre-recorded repeat of something I’ve already seen.

24 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

You are gonna be insanely surprised then

As per surveys, Taylor Swift fan ethnic background matches with American ethnic background. Also she is the biggest here in Asia even bigger than what she is in America

It was more a comment on the video in the tweet, the train platform looked to be a sea of white faces.

Flip · September 3, 2023

I think it's important to remember that walkups will be extremely weak, and that's not something that is accounted for in the tables, so while T-0 might be similar to some movies it will have only a small percentage of the tentpole in question's walkups

Borobudur · September 3, 2023

1 minute ago, Flip said:

I think it's important to remember that walkups will be extremely weak, and that's not something that is accounted for in the tables, so while T-0 might be similar to some movies it will have only a small percentage of the tentpole in question's walkups

But when a "supposed" niche event become this huge, it is hard not to expect the buzz start spilling over to the more general audience who are caught in the hype.

Porthos · September 3, 2023

Call me crazy if one likes, but I think any sweeping comments about how this film is gonna do with walkups/GA, positive or negative, is extremely premature given how unique it is.

eta:

As a reminder, part of the surge of tickets in the last week of pre-sales is from not-quite-as-rabid-but-still-strong fans of a property waiting for better seats to become available from final sets of showtimes being made available.

It's not just the GA which accounts for week-of sales, though they are obvs a large part of the equation.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Porthos

Inceptionzq · September 3, 2023

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1948 2629 74.10%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1857 2492 74.52%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
8815 654 18466 47.74% 13 124

0.855 Barbie T-0 19.06M
1.609 Doctor Strange MoM Day 3 57.91M
0.792 NWH Day 3 39.58M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1991

2629

75.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1904

2492

76.40%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9141	326	18466	49.50%	13	124

0.886

Barbie T-0

19.77M

0.783

NWH Day 4

39.13M

Last day of Day X comps, gonna start doing Doctor Strange and NWH T-0 comps tomorrow.

Inceptionzq · September 3, 2023

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-41 Friday 90 Showings 6112 +1916 14739 ATP: 22.75
0.503 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours 18.11M
0.294 NWH Thurs 24 hours 14.69M
Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours 27.04M
Adjusted NWH Thurs 24 hours 21.93M

T-42 Saturday 146 Showings 6197 +2402 23527 ATP: 22.29
0.700 Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours 38.28M
0.399 NWH Fri 24 hours 28.70M
Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours 55.66M
Adjusted NWH Fri 24 hours 41.73M

T-43 Sunday 134 Showings 4412 +1586 21581 ATP: 22.28
0.523 Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours 30.21M
0.357 NWH Sat 24 hours 26.41M
Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours 45.60M
Adjusted NWH Sat 24 hours 39.86M

I messed up the comps for Saturday and Sunday yesterday, should be fixed now.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-40 Friday

90 Showings

6766

+654

14797

ATP:

22.70

0.530	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs Day 3	19.09M
0.311	NWH Thurs Day 2	15.57M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs Day 3	28.43M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs Day 2	23.19M

T-41 Saturday

146 Showings

7239

+1042

23527

ATP:

22.23

0.754	Doctor Strange MoM Fri Day 3	41.26M
0.428	NWH Fri Day 2	30.77M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri Day 3	60.03M
	Adjusted NWH Fri Day 2	44.76M

T-42 Sunday

134 Showings

5152

+740

21581

ATP:

22.18

0.554	Doctor Strange MoM Sat Day 3	32.03M
0.365	NWH Sat Day 2	27.01M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat Day 3	48.19M
	Adjusted NWH Sat Day 2	40.64M

Inceptionzq · September 3, 2023

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-41 Friday 106 Showings 5790 +927 17259
1.319 Barbie T-7 Thursday 29.41M

T-42 Saturday 233 Showings 2928 +888 36826
0.478 Barbie T-8 Friday 22.86M

T-43 Sunday 224 Showings 1581 +411 35470
0.523 Barbie T-9 Saturday 22.87M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-40 Friday

108 Showings

6266

+476

17480

1.427

Barbie T-7 Thursday

31.83M

T-41 Saturday

233 Showings

3204

+276

36188

0.523

Barbie T-8 Friday

25.02M

T-42 Sunday

224 Showings

1831

+250

35463

0.606

Barbie T-9 Saturday

26.49M

Flip · September 3, 2023

46 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

But when a "supposed" niche event become this huge, it is hard not to expect the buzz start spilling over to the more general audience who are caught in the hype.

I just can't see why people who aren't Swift fans would want to see a concert film out of curiosity

XXR & Friends · September 3, 2023

6 minutes ago, Flip said:

I just can't see why people who aren't Swift fans would want to see a concert film out of curiosity

I mean, this seems like the perfect event to check out what she's all about or if you're just a "oh yea I know some of her songs" type person it's much more financially feasible to pay $25 for ticket to this than $500 for her concert.

TwoMisfits · September 3, 2023

6 minutes ago, Flip said:

I just can't see why people who aren't Swift fans would want to see a concert film out of curiosity

1. B/c a whole squad of friends (pick an age) is going - and do you want to be the one left out?

2. B/c your niece/nephew/best friend's kid/grandkid is uber-excited - so don't you want to go to be part of the excitement?

3. B/c like Barbie, this will be an event to see and be seen, vs a movie to truly watch - so do you want to miss a fun communal party with music that may not be your favorite, but isn't something that you find all that off-putting, and for the low all-in price of $20?

4. B/c your classmate is having a birthday party - and do you want to miss a birthday party?

I mean, I can keep going with reasons...like we saw with Barbie (and Minions 2 before it), movies aren't all about just the movie - communal experience can be the far superior draw for the right product and campaign.

Hilts · September 3, 2023

On 9/2/2023 at 8:05 PM, Hilts said:

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK

Friday - showings starting 6pm

Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-43 16 93 0 6,148 6,148 15,916 38.63%
T-42 19 124 0 2,134 8,282 23,809 34.79%
T-41 19 133 0 869 9,151 25,027 36.56%

MTC1: 5,673/10,784 - 52.6% sold

MTC2: 1,323/5,175 - 25.6% sold

MTC3: 1,645/4,677 - 35.2% sold

T-0 Comps
Barbie 0.926x = $19.53m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 3.034x = $21.85m

Basically at $20m now. Not sure where it gets to until it starts to level out. Average of 100 tickets per day would take it to $28m-$32m. **This does not even consider ATP differences**. Imagine walkups will be even greater now it has the weekend to itself though.

Since I had some extra time I could not resist taking a peek at Saturday.

272 showings / 4,548 total tickets sold. So ~50% of Friday which lines up pretty close with Shawn's earlier data pull.

Taylor Swift \| The Eras Tour							OK

Friday - showings starting 6pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%
T-41	19	133	0	869	9,151	25,027	36.56%
T-40	19	140	0	441	9,592	25,770	37.22%

MTC1: 5,863/11,064 - 53.0% sold

MTC2: 1,417/5,638 - 25.1% sold

MTC3: 1,695/4,677 - 36.2% sold

T-0 Comps
Barbie	0.970x	=	$20.47m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	3.180x	=	$22.90m

With the ATP hike this is already at ~$30m OD and *reminder* we are still 40(!) days out.

Who can say yet how this will perform in its final days but with an unprecedented event such as this I would expect the unexpected.

0.855	Barbie T-0	19.06M
1.609	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	57.91M
0.792	NWH Day 3	39.58M

0.503	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours	18.11M
0.294	NWH Thurs 24 hours	14.69M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs 34 hours	27.04M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs 24 hours	21.93M

0.700	Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours	38.28M
0.399	NWH Fri 24 hours	28.70M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri 34 hours	55.66M
	Adjusted NWH Fri 24 hours	41.73M

0.523	Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours	30.21M
0.357	NWH Sat 24 hours	26.41M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat 34 hours	45.60M
	Adjusted NWH Sat 24 hours	39.86M

T-0 Comps
Barbie	0.926x	=	$19.53m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	3.034x	=	$21.85m

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