The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Theater counts for next weekend from The Numbers:

 

Trolls Band Together: 3,800

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes: 3,700

Thanksgiving: 2,600

Next Goal Wins: 2,000

[reddevil19]

Mmm, yes, that title.

Deadline rn...

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

373 Showings

3810

+1018

52055

1.168	The Flash T-1	17.29M
0.440	AtSV T-1	15.19M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

362 Showings

5883

+2073

49719

0.935	Indiana Jones 5 T-0	15.70M
1.089	The Flash T-0	16.12M
0.455	AtSV T-0	15.68M

 

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

400 Showings

9609

+1541

54517

ATP:

16.32

1.384	The Flash T-1	20.49M
0.560	AtSV T-1	19.33M
0.469	Guardians 3 T-1	14.36M
0.920	Eternals T-1	19.64M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

381 Showings

12088

+2479

51264

ATP:

16.14

0.871	Indiana Jones 5 T-0	14.63M
1.386	The Flash T-0	20.51M	Adj	15.91M
0.561	AtSV T-0	19.36M	Adj	15.91M
0.495	Guardians 3 T-0	15.15M	Adj	14.06M
0.922	Eternals T-0	19.67M	Adj	16.62M

 

All numbers are from a few hours ago. Trying out a method for Drafthouse that @katnisscinnaplex suggested a while back for adjusting comps. Averaging out the comps, excluding unadjusted Drafthouse Flash and below, gives 15.58M

[Eric Prime]

58 minutes ago, Porthos said:

LOL AT NEW THREAD TITLE. ❤️

Was very confused when I woke up and saw I got reactions from a post I made in the "Deadline Source Code" thread. Was like...did I post something in here?

[Giorno]

Sacramento doesn't have AMC and is still so accurate

[M37]

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-7 Update

 

Overall, not great, not terrible.  Looks like $5M+ to me, could go for $6M+, but pushing ahead of Marvels/up to $7M would take some work from what is - or at least used to be - a fan heavy, early presale buy audience. The Barbie comps are holding steady since the initial sales burst, and there shouldn't be a push up to capacity over the final days

 

Not going to do a full Forecast Matrix for this one, in part because I'm iffy on the IM range. Could be similar to Fantastic Beasts 3 (7x, but Easter Weekend), and we've seen other fan/female heavy films have a low IM (like DWD at 6.24x), but my gut tells me this will play a little bit better with the GA, plus a softer Sunday drop leading into the holiday week.  So $35-$50M OW sounds about right for now, decent, but not the $60M+ breakout others have suggested

 

Also

Spoiler

As you may have noticed, made a small formatting change, shifting the overall average from a line to a shaded area, as the chart can get a little cluttered with a lot of data points and be difficult to find that particular value quickly.

 

For comparison, here's how Marvels would have looked with that change

 

Any feedback - positive, negative or indifferent - is appreciated

 

[keysersoze123]

Marvels MTC1 Friday - 152049/1276806 2579830.39 6988 shows

 

I see the benefit of Veterans Day playing out. Probably will end up around 240K but greater % of matinee tickets. I am thinking 14-15m true friday for now. 

[el sid]

Napoleon, counted today for Thursday, November 23. 13 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 13 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 5 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 52 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 35 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 105.

Up 70% since Tuesday = in 3 days.
Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week = Napoleon has 10 days left to overtake respectively increase the margin): Death on the Nile (1.1M from previews) had 212 sold tickets
and The Last Duel (350k) had 74 sold tickets.
KotFM (2.6M) had with 24 days left 764 sold tickets.

Napoleon, counted today for Friday, November 24. 14 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 44 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 13 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 6 (61 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 100 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 227. Still not frontloaded.

Up quite good 61% since Tuesday.
Comps (always the final presales = counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): The Last Duel (1.45M true Friday/4.8M) had 124 sold tickets,
The Green Knight (2.15M true Friday/ 6.8M OW) had 498
and The Northman (3.6M true Friday/12.3M) had 558 sold tickets.

KotFM (6.8M true Friday/23.3M) had with 22 days left 586 sold tickets (at least Napoleon came closer).

 

The Thursday presales could be better but I like the Friday number. Napoleon will very probably be comfortable in front compared to The Last Duel, The Green Knight and The Northman. But that's all I can say at the moment.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Sacramento doesn't have AMC and is still so accurate

 

Unless a film over-performs at/is sponsored by AMC. 

 

====

 

Actually think the root of the problem is not so much the lack of AMCs in the region, but the lack of megaplexes in the region.  We cap out at 16 screeners, with most of the busy theaters in town at 14 screens. The lack of megaplexes more showed up for Barbenhemier, but I tend to think it was even felt for TET as the screen crunch was evident at the initial surge of interest and when there were finally a ton more screens, the GA didn't care nearly enough for my data to catch back up.

 

Can even see the later if one squints as Oppenhemier actually nearly nailed TET!  Not that I could have known that at the time.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Oppenhemier actually nearly nailed TET!

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

LOL AT NEW THREAD TITLE. ❤️

I am still good for something. 

[YM!]

Any idea on how Trolls and Wish are looking?

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

I went back and checked and my Oppenheimer comp (35.4) actually reasonably predicted the True Fri for TET (34.7).

 

Far closer than anything else I had, at least!

 

(unless you're making a phrasing joke - which well, guilty, if unintentionally)

Edited November 10, 2023 by Porthos
Didn't round the Oppenheimer comp correctly - fixed for accuracy

[filmlover]

Sales near me for Hunger Games are more or less on par with where The Marvels was (maybe a bit worse due to lower showtime counts and a runtime that's nearly an hour longer). I'm thinking it opens in the same low-$40M area as the last Fantastic Beasts did at this point.

[DInky]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sales near me for Hunger Games are more or less on par with where The Marvels was (maybe a bit worse due to lower showtime counts and a runtime that's nearly an hour longer). I'm thinking it opens in the same low-$40M area as the last Fantastic Beasts did at this point.

 

The middling reviews actually may have had a negative effect.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

The middling reviews actually may have had a negative effect.

Possibly. Almost certain to limit the general appeal for a project that already has the aura of "for die hard fans only, everyone else need not apply" (given its prequel nature) attached to it.

[vafrow]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sales near me for Hunger Games are more or less on par with where The Marvels was (maybe a bit worse due to lower showtime counts and a runtime that's nearly an hour longer). I'm thinking it opens in the same low-$40M area as the last Fantastic Beasts did at this point.

 

I'm not formally tracking Friday sales, but eyeballing it, its doing a lot better than Marvels is with respect to Friday to Thursday ratio.

 

The film length, as well as being actually female skewing, is likely going to result in better sales over the course of the weekend. Which is good, as it doesn't look like it'll catch it for Thursday previews in my area.

Edited November 10, 2023 by vafrow

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/7/2023 at 7:09 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 17 theaters	64	35	117	8446	1.39
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	8	59	1100	5.36
TOTALS:	73	43	176	9546	1.84

 

Comps:

1.1x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.41 Million

0.73x Paw Patrol (FRI): $4.94 Million

1x TMNT (switching to just Tuesday):  $3.85 Million

3.66x Trolls: Band Together: ???

 

EA Comp:

0.78x TMNT Saturday EA: ~640k*

0.3x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: ??? 

 

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

Honestly this is getting along pretty well, EA is not as strong as Trolls but the Tuesday sales are a lot healthier. 

 

Napoleon (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	29	77	5552	1.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		50	13	64.94
MTC1:		37	6	48.05
Marcus:		22	8	28.57
Alamo:		9	9	11.69
Other chains:		9	6	11.69

 

Going to wait until my next update on Friday to add T-X comps. In the meantime, I will use this space to complain about PLF allocation; most PLFs are set either super early (3 PM) or super late (9 or even 10 PM in one theater). I think theaters need to figure out their sets because right now many showtimes are just not appealing. This is not Oppy or KOFM, but it is still over 2 hours and 40 minutes and I feel theaters still struggle juggling that sometimes. 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-8	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 18 theaters	67	24	141	8794	1.6
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	23	82	1100	7.45
TOTALS:	76	47	223	9894	2.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		118	23	52.91
Marcus:		51	11	22.87
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		54	13	24.22

 

Tuesday Comps:

1.27x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.81 Million

0.6x Paw Patrol (FRI): $4.1 Million

0.85x TMNT (TUE): $3.27 Million

2.82x Trolls: Band Together: ??? (using average comp value from my latest update- $4.43 Million)

 

Average (not including Trolls): $3.73 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.68x TMNT Saturday EA: ~565k*

0.37x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: ???

 

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

Napoleon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	37	72	149	6332	2.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		107	57	71.81
MTC1:		81	44	54.36
Marcus:		36	14	24.16
Alamo:		19	10	12.75
Other chains:		13	4	8.72

 

Comps:

0.39x KOFM: $1.01 Million

0.97x The Creator (just THU): $1.31 Million

0.1x Oppy: $1.04 Million

0.22x MI7 (just TUE): $1.54 Million

 

Average: $1.23 Million

 

Growing 50% in this past week is encouraging and all of these comps had longer windows, so they're imperfect, but for now this isn't looking great.

Edited November 11, 2023 by abracadabra1998
Added MI7 Comp, TFL made a good point about Tuesday comparison. Amended comp average as well

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	153	20993	0.73%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.234x) of Exorcist $666K Previews

(0.264x) of KoTFM $686K Previews

Comps AVG: $676k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	155	20993	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.228x) of Exorcist $651K Previews

(0.254x) of KoTFM $661K Previews

Comps AVG: $656k

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1641	34982	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.315x) of Barbie $6.65M Previews

(0.501x) of FNAF $5.16M Previews

(0.558x) of The Flash $5.41M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.74M

 

Replaced Fast X with Barbie @M37

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1802	34982	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

161

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.318x) of Barbie $6.71M Previews

(0.510x) of FNAF $5.23M Previews

(0.577x) of The Flash $5.60M Previews

(0.664x) of The Marvels $4.38M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.48M

 

Excellent growth today (The Marvels is out of the way so this will see nice growth moving forward)